Vol. 1 · No. 113 Est. 2026

MLBjohannes

A daily register of Monte Carlo projections and the editor's plays.

THURSDAY · APRIL 23 · 2026
Games
9
Sims / Game
1000
Model
sim_v2a4
Picks
3
The Board

Today's Projections

ATL at WSH
JR Ritchie vs Cade Cavalli · Nationals Park · 5:05 PM
SLIGHT EDGE: ATL
ATL
6.9
63%
TOTAL
12.7
8–17
WSH
5.8
37%
ATL 63%
37% WSH
Park1.08 Weather1.00 RL Home −1.521% RL Away +1.579% F5 Total6.8
Score Distributions
ATL · mean 6.9, median 7.0
0123456789101112
WSH · mean 5.8, median 6.0
0123456789101112
Total Runs
0123456789101112131415161718
O6.598%O793%O7.593%O889%O8.589%O980%O9.580%O1072%O10.572%
First 5 Innings
F5 total mean: 6.77
O3.5: 91%O4: 81%O4.5: 81%O5: 66%
Most Likely Finals
6-74%7-63%8-63%5-63%7-53%
Starters
ATL Starter
JR Ritchie
WSH Starter
Cade Cavalli
ERA4.25
FIP4.25
IP49
R/94.71
Bullpens
ATL Bullpen
RoleHlthPitcherSklERAIP
LR 7.9 José Suarez 72 5.02 14.3
SU 7.4 Dylan Lee 72 0.82 11.0
SU 8.7 Robert Suarez 71 0.84 10.7
MR 4.0 Tyler Kinley 68 0.82 11.0
CL 10.0 Raisel Iglesias 67 0.00 8.7
MR 5.0 Aaron Bummer 53 4.05 6.7
MR 8.0 Joel Payamps 44 8.44 5.3
MR 7.0 Osvaldo Bido 44 6.30 10.0
WSH Bullpen
RoleHlthPitcherSklERAIP
MR 9.0 Gus Varland 62 3.86 9.3
LR 10.0 Brad Lord 60 4.42 18.3
LR 7.2 Mitchell Parker 58 3.86 7.0
MR 10.0 Richard Lovelady 57 2.25 4.0
MR 10.0 Cole Henry 54 6.43 7.0
MR 8.0 Julian Fernández 50 9.00 2.0
CL 8.4 Clayton Beeter 45 3.48 10.3
SU 7.4 Cionel Pérez 44 8.25 12.0
MR 10.0 Andre Granillo 41 12.46 4.3
MR 10.0 PJ Poulin 39 4.97 12.7
MIL at DET
Brandon Sproat vs Tarik Skubal · Comerica Park · 5:10 PM
STRONG LEAN: DET
MIL
3.5
25%
TOTAL
8.7
5–13
DET
5.2
75%
MIL 25%
75% DET
Park1.03 Weather1.04 RL Home −1.553% RL Away +1.547% F5 Total4.4
⚠ DET Kenley Jansen (CL:0.4)
Score Distributions
MIL · mean 3.5, median 3.0
0123456789101112
DET · mean 5.2, median 5.0
0123456789101112
Total Runs
0123456789101112131415161718
O6.574%O760%O7.560%O850%O8.550%O936%O9.536%O1028%O10.528%
First 5 Innings
F5 total mean: 4.44
O3.5: 65%O4: 46%O4.5: 46%O5: 28%
Most Likely Finals
3-45%4-55%2-35%3-55%2-44%
Starters
MIL Starter
Brandon Sproat
ERA4.79
FIP2.47
IP21
R/94.26
DET Starter
Tarik Skubal
ERA2.21
FIP2.34
IP195
R/92.65
Bullpens
MIL Bullpen
RoleHlthPitcherSklERAIP
MR 8.0 Aaron Ashby 75 2.93 15.3
SU 8.7 Grant Anderson 71 2.63 13.7
SU 10.0 Abner Uribe 68 4.00 9.0
CL 8.4 Trevor Megill 66 8.31 8.7
MR 7.0 Jake Woodford 61 5.91 10.7
MR 4.0 DL Hall 57 2.31 11.7
MR 10.0 Angel Zerpa 54 5.73 11.0
MR 4.0 Carlos Rodriguez 50 2.25 4.0
DET Bullpen
RoleHlthPitcherSklERAIP
MR 6.0 Will Vest 68 5.40 10.0
MR 7.0 Enmanuel De Jesus 61 10.13 8.0
MR 8.0 Connor Seabold 56 4.22 10.7
MR 9.0 Kyle Finnegan 56 0.00 11.0
MR 10.0 Brant Hurter 56 3.00 9.0
CL 0.4 Kenley Jansen 55 1.35 6.7
MR 10.0 Tyler Holton 55 3.27 11.0
MR 10.0 Drew Anderson 49 7.94 11.3
PHI at CHC
Cristopher Sánchez vs Edward Cabrera · Wrigley Field · 6:20 PM
SLIGHT EDGE: CHC
PHI
3.9
32%
TOTAL
8.8
5–13
CHC
5.0
68%
PHI 32%
68% CHC
Park0.95 Weather1.13 RL Home −1.546% RL Away +1.554% F5 Total4.7
Score Distributions
PHI · mean 3.9, median 4.0
0123456789101112
CHC · mean 5.0, median 5.0
0123456789101112
Total Runs
0123456789101112131415161718
O6.575%O763%O7.563%O852%O8.552%O939%O9.539%O1029%O10.529%
First 5 Innings
F5 total mean: 4.68
O3.5: 68%O4: 51%O4.5: 51%O5: 33%
Most Likely Finals
3-55%4-55%3-45%5-64%2-34%
Starters
PHI Starter
Cristopher Sánchez
ERA2.50
FIP2.43
IP202
R/92.87
CHC Starter
Edward Cabrera
ERA3.53
FIP3.57
IP138
R/93.95
Bullpens
PHI Bullpen
RoleHlthPitcherSklERAIP
MR 8.0 José Alvarado 65 9.82 7.3
MR 10.0 Jonathan Bowlan 64 3.86 7.0
MR 10.0 Zach Pop 62 3.68 7.3
SU 10.0 Brad Keller 60 3.86 9.3
MR 8.0 Tim Mayza 58 4.85 13.0
MR 7.0 Tanner Banks 58 5.59 9.7
MR 4.0 Kyle Backhus 55 5.87 7.7
MR 10.0 Chase Shugart 53 1.59 5.7
CL 10.0 Jhoan Duran 50 1.35 6.7
MR 9.0 Orion Kerkering 49 4.05 6.7
CHC Bullpen
RoleHlthPitcherSklERAIP
LR 10.0 Colin Rea 82 3.00 24.0
LR 5.8 Ben Brown 81 2.37 19.0
MR 9.0 Riley Martin 61 2.45 7.3
CL 10.0 Caleb Thielbar 60 2.08 8.7
MR 10.0 Daniel Palencia 59 0.00 5.0
MR 6.0 Hoby Milner 58 1.54 11.7
MR 4.0 Corbin Martin 53 0.00 3.0
MR 10.0 Jacob Webb 50 4.82 9.3
MR 10.0 Phil Maton 46 13.50 4.0
MR 10.0 Hunter Harvey 43 6.75 4.0
SD at COL
Matt Waldron vs Ryan Feltner · Coors Field · 7:10 PM
TOSS-UP: COL
SD
5.4
45%
TOTAL
11.0
7–15
COL
5.6
55%
SD 45%
55% COL
Park1.29 Weather0.91 RL Home −1.536% RL Away +1.564% F5 Total6.5
⚠ SD Kyle Hart (SE:0.0) · COL Jaden Hill (SE:4.8)
Score Distributions
SD · mean 5.4, median 5.0
0123456789101112
COL · mean 5.6, median 6.0
0123456789101112
Total Runs
0123456789101112131415161718
O6.593%O784%O7.584%O876%O8.576%O963%O9.563%O1055%O10.555%
First 5 Innings
F5 total mean: 6.48
O3.5: 89%O4: 77%O4.5: 77%O5: 63%
Most Likely Finals
4-54%6-74%4-64%3-44%5-63%
Starters
SD Starter
Matt Waldron
ERA7.71
FIP8.46
IP5
R/95.25
COL Starter
Ryan Feltner
ERA4.75
FIP4.35
IP30
R/94.97
Bullpens
SD Bullpen
RoleHlthPitcherSklERAIP
MR 10.0 Bradgley Rodriguez 75 0.73 12.3
MR 10.0 Adrian Morejon 73 6.17 11.7
CL 10.0 Mason Miller 73 0.00 11.3
SU 0.0 Kyle Hart 69 4.91 14.7
MR 10.0 Jeremiah Estrada 60 5.14 7.0
MR 8.0 Wandy Peralta 58 2.31 11.7
MR 4.0 David Morgan 58 2.92 12.3
MR 10.0 Ron Marinaccio 57 3.65 12.3
SU 8.7 Jason Adam 57 1.93 4.7
COL Bullpen
RoleHlthPitcherSklERAIP
LR 7.9 Chase Dollander 86 2.88 25.0
LR 5.8 Antonio Senzatela 83 0.55 16.3
MR 9.0 Jimmy Herget 74 1.50 12.0
MR 8.0 Brennan Bernardino 70 0.87 10.3
MR 10.0 Zach Agnos 65 6.08 13.3
MR 8.0 Juan Mejia 58 6.30 10.0
SU 4.8 Jaden Hill 56 1.80 10.0
CL 10.0 Victor Vodnik 54 3.60 10.0
LR 10.0 Tanner Gordon 42 6.75 8.0
LR 10.0 Valente Bellozo 29 7.59 10.7
CWS at AZ
Davis Martin vs Michael Soroka · Chase Field · 7:40 PM
SLIGHT EDGE: AZ
CWS
5.2
39%
TOTAL
11.0
7–15
AZ
5.8
61%
CWS 39%
61% AZ
Park1.07 Weather1.00 RL Home −1.539% RL Away +1.561% F5 Total5.7
⚠ AZ Taylor Clarke (SE:2.2) · AZ Ryan Thompson (SE:2.2)
Score Distributions
CWS · mean 5.2, median 5.0
0123456789101112
AZ · mean 5.8, median 6.0
0123456789101112
Total Runs
0123456789101112131415161718
O6.592%O784%O7.584%O876%O8.576%O963%O9.563%O1054%O10.554%
First 5 Innings
F5 total mean: 5.74
O3.5: 83%O4: 69%O4.5: 69%O5: 50%
Most Likely Finals
5-66%4-54%6-74%3-44%6-53%
Starters
CWS Starter
Davis Martin
ERA4.10
FIP4.47
IP143
R/94.68
AZ Starter
Michael Soroka
ERA4.52
FIP3.69
IP90
R/94.48
Bullpens
CWS Bullpen
RoleHlthPitcherSklERAIP
MR 2.0 Sean Newcomb 76 4.60 15.7
MR 10.0 Grant Taylor 73 3.97 11.3
MR 4.0 Bryan Hudson 68 1.69 10.7
MR 2.0 Lucas Sims 55 4.50 10.0
MR 8.0 Jordan Hicks 54 4.76 11.3
MR 10.0 Chris Murphy 48 10.50 6.0
MR 10.0 Jordan Leasure 44 4.63 11.7
MR 7.0 Osvaldo Bido 44 13.50 2.0
CL 10.0 Seranthony Domínguez 43 5.63 8.0
AZ Bullpen
RoleHlthPitcherSklERAIP
MR 9.0 Kevin Ginkel 69 4.66 9.7
SU 7.4 Jonathan Loáisiga 66 3.97 11.3
SU 7.4 Juan Morillo 65 2.38 11.3
CL 6.8 Paul Sewald 60 1.93 9.3
MR 10.0 Andrew Hoffmann 51 1.74 10.3
MR 10.0 Taylor Rashi 50 9.82 3.7
SU 2.2 Taylor Clarke 50 3.55 12.7
SU 2.2 Ryan Thompson 46 4.66 9.7
LAD at SF
Tyler Glasnow vs Logan Webb · Oracle Park · 7:45 PM
SLIGHT EDGE: LAD
LAD
4.7
65%
TOTAL
8.2
4–12
SF
3.5
35%
LAD 65%
35% SF
Park0.93 Weather1.05 RL Home −1.516% RL Away +1.584% F5 Total4.4
⚠ SF Ryan Walker (CL:0.4)
Score Distributions
LAD · mean 4.7, median 5.0
0123456789101112
SF · mean 3.5, median 3.0
0123456789101112
Total Runs
0123456789101112131415161718
O6.569%O755%O7.555%O845%O8.545%O932%O9.532%O1023%O10.523%
First 5 Innings
F5 total mean: 4.40
O3.5: 64%O4: 45%O4.5: 45%O5: 29%
Most Likely Finals
3-45%4-34%5-34%2-34%4-54%
Starters
LAD Starter
Tyler Glasnow
ERA3.19
FIP3.62
IP90
R/93.71
SF Starter
Logan Webb
ERA3.22
FIP2.48
IP207
R/93.34
Bullpens
LAD Bullpen
RoleHlthPitcherSklERAIP
MR 10.0 Will Klein 69 2.79 9.7
MR 10.0 Alex Vesia 67 0.00 8.7
SU 8.7 Tanner Scott 64 0.93 9.7
MR 8.0 Jack Dreyer 62 4.35 10.3
MR 10.0 Edgardo Henriquez 56 5.14 7.0
CL 10.0 Edwin Díaz 53 10.50 6.0
SU 10.0 Blake Treinen 53 4.05 6.7
MR 8.0 Kyle Hurt 50 3.00 3.0
MR 10.0 Jake Eder 50 9.00 1.0
MR 10.0 Ben Casparius 46 9.64 4.7
SF Bullpen
RoleHlthPitcherSklERAIP
SU 10.0 Keaton Winn 69 2.79 9.7
MR 8.0 Erik Miller 66 4.50 8.0
MR 8.0 Caleb Kilian 63 0.82 11.0
CL 0.4 Ryan Walker 60 3.27 11.0
MR 10.0 Blade Tidwell 58 2.25 8.0
MR 9.0 Matt Gage 55 1.80 10.0
MR 10.0 JT Brubaker 53 2.38 11.3
MR 9.0 Ryan Borucki 51 5.87 7.7
NYY at BOS
Cam Schlittler vs Payton Tolle · Fenway Park · 10:10 PM
SLIGHT EDGE: NYY
NYY
4.8
65%
TOTAL
8.3
5–13
BOS
3.5
35%
NYY 65%
35% BOS
Park0.99 Weather0.94 RL Home −1.516% RL Away +1.584% F5 Total4.5
Score Distributions
NYY · mean 4.8, median 5.0
0123456789101112
BOS · mean 3.5, median 3.0
0123456789101112
Total Runs
0123456789101112131415161718
O6.573%O755%O7.555%O845%O8.545%O932%O9.532%O1024%O10.524%
First 5 Innings
F5 total mean: 4.48
O3.5: 66%O4: 46%O4.5: 46%O5: 30%
Most Likely Finals
3-46%4-35%4-54%2-34%5-24%
Starters
NYY Starter
Cam Schlittler
ERA2.96
FIP3.50
IP73
R/93.60
BOS Starter
Payton Tolle
ERA6.06
FIP6.22
IP16
R/95.69
Bullpens
NYY Bullpen
RoleHlthPitcherSklERAIP
MR 2.0 Brent Headrick 75 2.08 13.0
CL 8.4 David Bednar 69 3.72 9.7
MR 10.0 Paul Blackburn 61 4.50 8.0
MR 10.0 Jake Bird 61 7.71 7.0
MR 10.0 Fernando Cruz 59 2.45 7.3
MR 10.0 Camilo Doval 53 7.56 8.3
MR 10.0 Ryan Yarbrough 52 5.63 8.0
MR 9.0 Tim Hill 50 0.90 10.0
MR 10.0 Angel Chivilli 45 3.86 2.3
BOS Bullpen
RoleHlthPitcherSklERAIP
CL 10.0 Aroldis Chapman 64 1.17 7.7
MR 10.0 Jovani Morán 64 2.03 13.3
MR 10.0 Garrett Whitlock 60 2.00 9.0
MR 8.0 Zack Kelly 60 4.00 9.0
MR 8.0 Tyler Samaniego 58 0.00 5.3
MR 10.0 Justin Slaten 57 0.00 3.3
MR 10.0 Greg Weissert 50 4.82 9.3
MR 10.0 Danny Coulombe 47 3.18 5.7
MR 10.0 Ryan Watson 39 8.10 13.3
MIN at NYM
Joe Ryan vs Christian Scott · Citi Field · 11:10 PM
SLIGHT EDGE: MIN
MIN
4.8
68%
TOTAL
8.3
5–12
NYM
3.4
32%
MIN 68%
32% NYM
Park1.01 Weather0.98 RL Home −1.516% RL Away +1.584% F5 Total4.4
Score Distributions
MIN · mean 4.8, median 5.0
0123456789101112
NYM · mean 3.4, median 3.0
0123456789101112
Total Runs
0123456789101112131415161718
O6.572%O755%O7.555%O844%O8.544%O930%O9.530%O1023%O10.523%
First 5 Innings
F5 total mean: 4.44
O3.5: 64%O4: 44%O4.5: 44%O5: 28%
Most Likely Finals
4-36%3-45%4-24%5-44%2-33%
Starters
MIN Starter
Joe Ryan
ERA3.42
FIP3.49
IP171
R/93.85
NYM Starter
Christian Scott
Bullpens
MIN Bullpen
RoleHlthPitcherSklERAIP
MR 8.0 Eric Orze 65 3.72 9.7
MR 9.0 Anthony Banda 64 9.31 9.7
MR 8.0 Taylor Rogers 63 4.15 8.7
MR 10.0 Cody Laweryson 63 4.26 6.3
MR 8.0 Cole Sands 61 3.48 10.3
MR 10.0 Garrett Acton 61 1.59 5.7
MR 4.0 Justin Topa 57 3.86 11.7
MR 10.0 Andrew Morris 57 8.31 4.3
SU 10.0 Kody Funderburk 51 2.00 9.0
MR 4.0 Kendry Rojas 47 0.00 2.0
NYM Bullpen
RoleHlthPitcherSklERAIP
MR 9.0 Huascar Brazobán 71 0.00 10.7
MR 10.0 Tobias Myers 64 3.00 15.0
MR 10.0 Luis García 60 7.11 6.3
MR 8.0 Brooks Raley 59 2.08 8.7
LR 10.0 Sean Manaea 58 4.50 16.0
MR 4.0 Luke Weaver 57 5.40 10.0
MR 10.0 Richard Lovelady 57 3.68 7.3
MR 10.0 Craig Kimbrel 57 0.00 3.7
CL 6.8 Devin Williams 53 9.95 6.3
MR 9.0 Austin Warren 50 5.40 1.7
PIT at TEX
Bubba Chandler vs Jacob deGrom · Globe Life Field · 12:05 AM
TOSS-UP: PIT
PIT
3.5
51%
TOTAL
6.8
3–10
TEX
3.3
49%
PIT 51%
49% TEX
Park0.79 Weather1.00 RL Home −1.525% RL Away +1.575% F5 Total3.4
⚠ PIT Gregory Soto (SE:4.8) · TEX Cole Winn (SE:2.2)
Score Distributions
PIT · mean 3.5, median 3.0
0123456789101112
TEX · mean 3.3, median 3.0
0123456789101112
Total Runs
0123456789101112131415161718
O6.552%O735%O7.535%O826%O8.526%O914%O9.514%O109%O10.59%
First 5 Innings
F5 total mean: 3.41
O3.5: 44%O4: 26%O4.5: 26%O5: 13%
Most Likely Finals
3-47%2-36%3-26%5-45%4-34%
Starters
PIT Starter
Bubba Chandler
ERA4.02
FIP2.33
IP31
R/93.56
TEX Starter
Jacob deGrom
ERA2.97
FIP3.56
IP173
R/93.58
Bullpens
PIT Bullpen
RoleHlthPitcherSklERAIP
SU 4.8 Gregory Soto 71 2.13 12.7
SU 10.0 Isaac Mattson 70 1.32 13.7
SU 10.0 Mason Montgomery 68 4.82 9.3
CL 8.4 Dennis Santana 68 0.75 12.0
MR 10.0 Yohan Ramírez 66 2.30 15.7
MR 8.0 Evan Sisk 60 3.60 5.0
MR 10.0 José Urquidy 54 8.53 6.3
MR 9.0 Justin Lawrence 50 6.55 11.0
MR 7.0 Wilber Dotel 45 3.38 2.7
MR 10.0 Hunter Barco 36 6.43 7.0
TEX Bullpen
RoleHlthPitcherSklERAIP
MR 6.0 Tyler Alexander 77 0.68 13.3
MR 9.0 Jacob Latz 70 1.32 13.7
CL 8.4 Jakob Junis 65 2.38 11.3
MR 9.0 Jalen Beeks 61 1.80 10.0
MR 10.0 Cal Quantrill 58 6.75 4.0
SU 2.2 Cole Winn 56 4.91 11.0
MR 10.0 Robert Garcia 55 3.38 8.0
MR 9.0 Gavin Collyer 54 0.00 3.0
MR 10.0 Chris Martin 50 7.11 6.3
MR 10.0 Luis Curvelo 41 5.40 5.0
The Editor's Plays

On Today's Slate

PIT @ TEX
PIT ML +115 · Conf 7/10

Chandler's slider has been filthy lately and Texas is ice cold against righties this homestand. Bullpen edge swings Pittsburgh's way too.

LAD @ SF
Under 7.5 -110
Aaron Judge anytime HR +240 · Conf 6/10

Fenway has been playing juiced against left-handed pitching. Judge's pull-heavy approach is a great matchup.