Vol. 1 · No. 120 Est. 2026

MLBjohannes

A daily register of Monte Carlo model projections and plays for the U.S. Mint.

THURSDAY · APRIL 30 · 2026

DET

at

ATL

Framber Valdez vs Bryce Elder · Truist Park · 12:15 PM ET

SLIGHT EDGE: ATL

DET

4.5

42%

ML +139

TOTAL

9.7

4–16

ATL

5.1

58%

ML -139

FANDUEL

ML DET +104 / ATL -122

RL -1.5 (+168) / +1.5 (-205)

Total 8.5 (O -110 / U -110)

DET 42%

58% ATL

Park0.99 Weather1.11 RL Home −1.543% RL Away +1.557% F5 Total5.3

Total Runs

O6.575%O765%O7.565%O857%O8.557%O947%O9.547%O1039%O10.539%

First 5 Innings

F5 total mean: 5.27

O3.5: 66%O4: 54%O4.5: 54%O5: 42%

Starters

DET Starter

Framber Valdez

ERA3.43

IP34.1

K24

WHIP1.32

ATL Starter

Bryce Elder

ERA2.02

IP35.6

K31

WHIP1.01

Bullpens

DET Bullpen

Role	Hlth	Pitcher	Skl	ERA	IP
MR	7.0	Brant Hurter	65	1.98	13.7
SU	10.0	Will Vest	63	6.17	11.7
MR	10.0	Enmanuel De Jesus	61	10.13	8.0
MR	7.0	Burch Smith	61	1.69	5.3
MR	10.0	Kyle Finnegan	58	0.66	13.7
MR	10.0	Connor Seabold	53	4.09	11.0
MR	10.0	Drew Anderson	53	6.60	15.0
MR	10.0	Brenan Hanifee	50	0.00	1.0
CL	10.0	Kenley Jansen	50	3.68	7.3
MR	8.0	Tyler Holton	48	5.54	13.0

ATL Bullpen

Role	Hlth	Pitcher	Skl	ERA	IP
SU	10.0	Dylan Lee	76	1.38	13.0
MR	10.0	José Suarez	75	5.87	15.3
MR	10.0	Robert Suarez	75	0.71	12.7
SU	7.4	Tyler Kinley	72	1.38	13.0
CL	10.0	Raisel Iglesias	67	0.00	8.7
LR	8.6	Didier Fuentes	63	5.00	9.0
MR	10.0	Joel Payamps	48	6.14	7.3
MR	10.0	Carlos Carrasco	46	0.00	1.0
MR	10.0	Osvaldo Bido	43	6.30	10.0
SU	8.7	Aaron Bummer	43	4.66	9.7

HOU

at

BAL

Lance McCullers Jr. vs Chris Bassitt · Oriole Park at Camden Yards · 12:35 PM ET

TOSS-UP: HOU

HOU

6.2

54%

ML -117

TOTAL

11.7

6–18

BAL

5.5

46%

ML +117

FANDUEL

ML HOU +108 / BAL -126

RL +1.5 (-194) / -1.5 (+160)

Total 8.5 (O -124 / U +102)

HOU 54%

46% BAL

Park1.03 Weather1.04 RL Home −1.533% RL Away +1.567% F5 Total6.8

Total Runs

O6.586%O779%O7.579%O873%O8.573%O964%O9.564%O1056%O10.556%

First 5 Innings

F5 total mean: 6.77

O3.5: 80%O4: 70%O4.5: 70%O5: 59%

Starters

HOU Starter

Lance McCullers Jr.

ERA6.81

IP25.1

K24

WHIP1.51

BAL Starter

Chris Bassitt

ERA7.06

IP20.4

K10

WHIP2.16

Bullpens

HOU Bullpen

Role	Hlth	Pitcher	Skl	ERA	IP
MR	10.0	Bryan King	72	3.86	11.7
MR	7.0	Kai-Wei Teng	64	2.75	19.7
MR	9.0	Steven Okert	62	2.70	13.3
CL	10.0	Enyel De Los Santos	60	6.10	10.3
MR	10.0	Jayden Murray	55	6.00	6.0
MR	10.0	Christian Roa	48	5.19	8.7
MR	9.0	ID:656986	48	13.50	1.3
MR	10.0	AJ Blubaugh	47	6.23	17.3
LR	7.9	Ryan Weiss	33	6.65	21.7
MR	10.0	Bryan Abreu	33	12.96	8.3

BAL Bullpen

Role	Hlth	Pitcher	Skl	ERA	IP
SU	10.0	Rico Garcia	71	0.68	13.3
MR	10.0	Grant Wolfram	70	4.50	10.0
MR	9.0	Anthony Nunez	70	2.51	14.3
CL	8.4	Ryan Helsley	70	2.53	10.7
SU	10.0	Tyler Wells	69	3.38	16.0
MR	10.0	Yennier Cano	64	1.86	9.7
MR	10.0	Keegan Akin	57	54.00	1.0
MR	10.0	Cameron Foster	57	6.35	5.7
MR	8.0	Andrew Kittredge	56	0.00	3.0
LR	10.0	Albert Suárez	42	3.46	13.0

STL

at

PIT

Hunter Dobbins vs Paul Skenes · PNC Park · 12:35 PM ET

TOSS-UP: PIT

STL

3.0

42%

ML +137

TOTAL

6.5

3–11

PIT

3.5

58%

ML -137

FANDUEL

ML STL +184 / PIT -220

RL +1.5 (-120) / -1.5 (+100)

Total 7.5 (O +100 / U -122)

STL 42%

58% PIT

Park0.83 Weather0.98 RL Home −1.539% RL Away +1.561% F5 Total3.4

Total Runs

O6.546%O734%O7.534%O827%O8.527%O919%O9.519%O1014%O10.514%

First 5 Innings

F5 total mean: 3.40

O3.5: 41%O4: 28%O4.5: 28%O5: 19%

Starters

STL Starter

Hunter Dobbins

AAA 2026

IP22.7

K19

WHIP1.32

PIT Starter

Paul Skenes

ERA2.54

IP28.3

K30

WHIP0.74

Bullpens

STL Bullpen

Role	Hlth	Pitcher	Skl	ERA	IP
CL	10.0	Riley O'Brien	79	1.26	14.3
MR	9.0	Gordon Graceffo	70	1.13	16.0
MR	10.0	Ryan Fernandez	61	1.59	5.7
SU	10.0	Ryne Stanek	60	7.71	11.7
MR	10.0	George Soriano	60	4.38	12.3
SU	10.0	JoJo Romero	55	3.95	13.7
MR	10.0	Jared Shuster	52	4.91	3.7
SU	7.4	Justin Bruihl	51	5.87	15.3
MR	9.0	Matt Svanson	37	10.34	15.7

PIT Bullpen

Role	Hlth	Pitcher	Skl	ERA	IP
SU	10.0	Gregory Soto	75	1.84	14.7
SU	10.0	Mason Montgomery	74	3.65	12.3
SU	10.0	Isaac Mattson	73	1.13	16.0
MR	10.0	Yohan Ramírez	72	2.04	17.7
MR	10.0	Evan Sisk	68	2.00	9.0
MR	10.0	Justin Lawrence	56	5.14	14.0
MR	10.0	Cam Sanders	55	12.00	3.0
MR	10.0	José Urquidy	54	8.53	6.3
LR	10.0	Wilber Dotel	50	1.35	6.7
CL	10.0	Dennis Santana	50	3.29	13.7

SF

at

PHI

Logan Webb vs Cristopher Sánchez · Citizens Bank Park · 12:35 PM ET

TOSS-UP: PHI

SF

3.9

44%

ML +128

TOTAL

8.1

3–13

PHI

4.3

56%

ML -128

FANDUEL

ML SF +112 / PHI -132

RL +1.5 (-196) / -1.5 (+162)

Total 7.5 (O +100 / U -122)

SF 44%

56% PHI

Park1.04 Weather0.96 RL Home −1.539% RL Away +1.561% F5 Total4.4

Total Runs

O6.563%O751%O7.551%O842%O8.542%O932%O9.532%O1025%O10.525%

First 5 Innings

F5 total mean: 4.38

O3.5: 56%O4: 42%O4.5: 42%O5: 31%

Starters

SF Starter

Logan Webb

ERA4.86

IP37.0

K32

WHIP1.38

PHI Starter

Cristopher Sánchez

ERA2.98

IP33.2

K43

WHIP1.63

Bullpens

SF Bullpen

Role	Hlth	Pitcher	Skl	ERA	IP
SU	10.0	Keaton Winn	71	2.53	10.7
MR	10.0	Erik Miller	71	3.48	10.3
MR	7.0	Blade Tidwell	65	3.00	12.0
MR	10.0	Caleb Kilian	62	0.75	12.0
CL	10.0	Ryan Walker	62	3.00	12.0
MR	10.0	JT Brubaker	58	2.51	14.3
MR	8.0	Matt Gage	55	1.50	12.0
MR	10.0	Ryan Borucki	50	5.19	8.7

PHI Bullpen

Role	Hlth	Pitcher	Skl	ERA	IP
MR	10.0	José Alvarado	67	7.45	9.7
MR	9.0	Tim Mayza	64	3.94	16.0
MR	10.0	Jonathan Bowlan	64	3.86	7.0
MR	10.0	Zach Pop	62	3.68	7.3
MR	10.0	Kyle Backhus	58	4.66	9.7
MR	10.0	Tanner Banks	57	7.20	10.0
MR	10.0	Chase Shugart	57	1.17	7.7
SU	10.0	Brad Keller	57	3.86	11.7
MR	8.0	Orion Kerkering	54	2.70	10.0
CL	10.0	Jhoan Duran	50	1.35	6.7

HOU at BAL

TBD vs Brandon Young · Oriole Park at Camden Yards ·12:40 PM ET

SKIPPED null_starter

starter/away — starter_id_null

COL

at

CIN

Michael Lorenzen vs Andrew Abbott · Great American Ball Park · 12:40 PM ET

TOSS-UP: CIN

COL

4.1

46%

ML +118

TOTAL

8.3

3–14

CIN

4.3

54%

ML -118

FANDUEL

ML COL +146 / CIN -174

RL +1.5 (-140) / -1.5 (+116)

Total 9.0 (O -105 / U -115)

COL 46%

54% CIN

Park0.96 Weather0.92 RL Home −1.538% RL Away +1.562% F5 Total4.9

Total Runs

O6.565%O753%O7.553%O845%O8.545%O934%O9.534%O1028%O10.528%

First 5 Innings

F5 total mean: 4.87

O3.5: 62%O4: 49%O4.5: 49%O5: 37%

Starters

COL Starter

Michael Lorenzen

ERA6.22

IP27.5

K19

WHIP1.93

CIN Starter

Andrew Abbott

ERA6.87

IP27.5

K19

WHIP1.85

Bullpens

COL Bullpen

Role	Hlth	Pitcher	Skl	ERA	IP
LR	10.0	Chase Dollander	89	2.25	32.0
LR	10.0	Antonio Senzatela	86	0.50	18.0
MR	10.0	Jimmy Herget	74	1.50	12.0
MR	10.0	Brennan Bernardino	71	0.82	11.0
MR	10.0	Juan Mejia	67	5.40	13.3
MR	10.0	Zach Agnos	64	5.71	17.3
SU	10.0	Jaden Hill	57	3.18	11.3
MR	10.0	Seth Halvorsen	52	0.00	2.0
CL	10.0	Victor Vodnik	51	6.94	11.7
LR	7.9	Tanner Gordon	42	7.36	11.0

CIN Bullpen

Role	Hlth	Pitcher	Skl	ERA	IP
MR	9.0	Brock Burke	79	0.63	14.3
SU	8.7	Graham Ashcraft	74	1.20	15.0
MR	10.0	Pierce Johnson	62	3.75	12.0
MR	10.0	Connor Phillips	58	2.16	16.7
MR	10.0	Sam Moll	58	2.19	12.3
SU	8.7	Tony Santillan	56	2.13	12.7
CL	10.0	Emilio Pagán	52	4.38	12.3
MR	10.0	Jose Franco	47	4.70	7.7
MR	10.0	Kyle Nicolas	37	8.59	7.3

WSH

at

NYM

Miles Mikolas vs Freddy Peralta · Citi Field · 1:10 PM ET

SLIGHT EDGE: NYM

WSH

4.1

39%

ML +154

TOTAL

9.0

4–15

NYM

5.0

61%

ML -154

FANDUEL

ML WSH +176 / NYM -210

RL +1.5 (-134) / -1.5 (+112)

Total 7.5 (O -122 / U +100)

WSH 39%

61% NYM

Park1.01 Weather0.96 RL Home −1.546% RL Away +1.554% F5 Total5.1

Total Runs

O6.570%O759%O7.559%O851%O8.551%O941%O9.541%O1033%O10.533%

First 5 Innings

F5 total mean: 5.08

O3.5: 64%O4: 52%O4.5: 52%O5: 40%

Starters

WSH Starter

Miles Mikolas

ERA8.84

IP22.4

K16

WHIP1.92

NYM Starter

Freddy Peralta

ERA4.10

IP30.7

K36

WHIP1.27

Bullpens

WSH Bullpen

Role	Hlth	Pitcher	Skl	ERA	IP
CL	10.0	Gus Varland	68	3.18	11.3
MR	8.0	Brad Lord	65	3.74	21.7
MR	10.0	Mitchell Parker	60	5.40	8.3
MR	10.0	Richard Lovelady	58	1.59	5.7
MR	10.0	Paxton Schultz	56	4.00	9.0
MR	10.0	Cole Henry	54	6.43	7.0
MR	10.0	Julian Fernández	48	2.25	4.0
MR	10.0	ID:683000	47	9.00	2.0
MR	10.0	Clayton Beeter	45	3.48	10.3
SU	10.0	Cionel Pérez	43	7.62	13.0

NYM Bullpen

Role	Hlth	Pitcher	Skl	ERA	IP
MR	8.0	Tobias Myers	74	2.33	19.3
LR	10.0	Sean Manaea	69	4.66	19.3
MR	10.0	Huascar Brazobán	68	1.35	13.3
MR	10.0	Brooks Raley	61	1.86	9.7
MR	8.0	Luis García	61	7.11	6.3
MR	9.0	Craig Kimbrel	61	5.06	5.3
CL	10.0	Devin Williams	60	9.00	8.0
MR	10.0	Luke Weaver	58	4.91	11.0
MR	10.0	Richard Lovelady	58	3.68	7.3
LR	10.0	Carl Edwards Jr.	55	0.00	3.3

AZ

at

MIL

Michael Soroka vs Brandon Woodruff · American Family Field · 1:40 PM ET

TOSS-UP: MIL

AZ

3.6

48%

ML +110

TOTAL

7.2

3–12

MIL

3.6

52%

ML -110

FANDUEL

ML AZ +106 / MIL -124

RL +1.5 (-215) / -1.5 (+176)

Total 7.5 (O -115 / U -105)

AZ 48%

52% MIL

Park0.93 Weather0.96 RL Home −1.534% RL Away +1.566% F5 Total3.8

Total Runs

O6.554%O742%O7.542%O833%O8.533%O925%O9.525%O1019%O10.519%

First 5 Innings

F5 total mean: 3.79

O3.5: 48%O4: 34%O4.5: 34%O5: 24%

Starters

AZ Starter

Michael Soroka

ERA2.65

IP27.2

K34

WHIP1.18

MIL Starter

Brandon Woodruff

ERA3.83

IP28.2

K23

WHIP1.03

Bullpens

AZ Bullpen

Role	Hlth	Pitcher	Skl	ERA	IP
SU	10.0	Juan Morillo	72	1.98	13.7
MR	10.0	Kevin Ginkel	71	4.38	12.3
SU	10.0	Jonathan Loáisiga	70	3.29	13.7
SU	8.7	Taylor Clarke	67	3.07	14.7
MR	10.0	Taylor Rashi	50	9.82	3.7
SU	10.0	Ryan Thompson	49	3.97	11.3
CL	10.0	Paul Sewald	49	4.50	10.0
MR	7.0	Andrew Hoffmann	42	7.71	11.7

MIL Bullpen

Role	Hlth	Pitcher	Skl	ERA	IP
MR	10.0	Aaron Ashby	83	2.45	18.3
SU	10.0	Grant Anderson	71	2.57	14.0
CL	10.0	Trevor Megill	69	7.20	10.0
MR	7.0	Jake Woodford	68	4.61	13.7
SU	10.0	Abner Uribe	68	3.97	11.3
LR	9.3	Shane Drohan	57	4.70	7.7
MR	10.0	DL Hall	57	2.31	11.7
MR	10.0	Angel Zerpa	50	6.39	12.7
MR	10.0	Carlos Rodriguez	50	2.25	4.0

KC

at

ATH

Noah Cameron vs Jeffrey Springs · Sutter Health Park · 3:05 PM ET

TOSS-UP: ATH

KC

4.8

42%

ML +135

TOTAL

10.2

5–16

ATH

5.4

58%

ML -135

FANDUEL

ML KC +108 / ATH -126

RL +1.5 (-184) / -1.5 (+152)

Total 9.5 (O -115 / U -105)

KC 42%

58% ATH

Park1.10 Weather1.01 RL Home −1.543% RL Away +1.557% F5 Total5.5

Total Runs

O6.578%O768%O7.568%O861%O8.561%O951%O9.551%O1044%O10.544%

First 5 Innings

F5 total mean: 5.46

O3.5: 68%O4: 56%O4.5: 56%O5: 44%

Starters

KC Starter

Noah Cameron

ERA5.31

IP25.4

K23

WHIP1.57

ATH Starter

Jeffrey Springs

ERA3.84

IP35.2

K31

WHIP1.02

Bullpens

KC Bullpen

Role	Hlth	Pitcher	Skl	ERA	IP
MR	8.0	Daniel Lynch IV	73	0.79	11.3
MR	9.0	Nick Mears	65	2.45	11.0
CL	6.8	Lucas Erceg	60	4.38	12.3
MR	10.0	Mason Black	57	0.00	3.7
MR	10.0	Alex Lange	57	7.71	11.7
SU	7.4	Matt Strahm	54	4.22	10.7
MR	10.0	Eli Morgan	48	2.61	10.3
MR	9.0	John Schreiber	43	4.50	10.0
MR	10.0	Steven Cruz	40	14.40	5.0

ATH Bullpen

Role	Hlth	Pitcher	Skl	ERA	IP
MR	9.0	Jack Perkins	75	2.92	12.3
SU	8.7	Justin Sterner	68	4.02	15.7
CL	10.0	Joel Kuhnel	64	2.16	8.3
MR	10.0	Mark Leiter Jr.	60	6.39	12.7
MR	10.0	Brady Basso	59	0.00	0.7
MR	10.0	Luis Medina	59	2.70	10.0
SU	8.7	Scott Barlow	54	3.38	13.3
MR	10.0	Elvis Alvarado	53	8.38	9.7
SU	7.4	Hogan Harris	51	2.65	17.0
MR	10.0	Michael Kelly	46	6.23	4.3

SF at PHI

TBD vs TBD · Citizens Bank Park ·5:35 PM ET

SKIPPED null_starter

starter/away — starter_id_null

TOR

at

MIN

Kevin Gausman vs Bailey Ober · Target Field · 7:40 PM ET

TOSS-UP: TOR

TOR

4.3

51%

ML -102

TOTAL

8.4

3–14

MIN

4.0

49%

ML +102

FANDUEL

ML TOR -134 / MIN +114

RL -1.5 (+130) / +1.5 (-156)

Total 8.0 (O -105 / U -115)

TOR 51%

49% MIN

Park1.06 Weather0.98 RL Home −1.534% RL Away +1.566% F5 Total4.3

Total Runs

O6.564%O753%O7.553%O844%O8.544%O934%O9.534%O1027%O10.527%

First 5 Innings

F5 total mean: 4.35

O3.5: 55%O4: 42%O4.5: 42%O5: 30%

Starters

TOR Starter

Kevin Gausman

ERA2.62

IP34.3

K38

WHIP0.96

MIN Starter

Bailey Ober

ERA4.03

IP31.3

K27

WHIP1.18

Bullpens

TOR Bullpen

Role	Hlth	Pitcher	Skl	ERA	IP
CL	8.4	Louis Varland	82	0.56	16.0
SU	8.7	Tyler Rogers	73	0.59	15.3
MR	9.0	Jeff Hoffman	71	6.39	12.7
SU	10.0	Braydon Fisher	70	1.76	15.3
MR	10.0	Joe Mantiply	69	3.38	10.7
SU	8.7	Mason Fluharty	66	5.06	10.7
MR	10.0	Tommy Nance	64	6.00	12.0
MR	10.0	Spencer Miles	60	3.29	13.7
MR	10.0	ID:695445	50	6.75	1.3
LR	10.0	Josh Fleming	44	12.00	3.0

MIN Bullpen

Role	Hlth	Pitcher	Skl	ERA	IP
MR	10.0	Eric Orze	72	3.09	11.7
MR	10.0	Anthony Banda	65	8.74	11.3
MR	10.0	Garrett Acton	63	2.70	6.7
MR	10.0	Cody Laweryson	63	4.26	6.3
LR	10.0	Andrew Morris	62	7.20	10.0
MR	8.0	Luis García	61	18.00	1.0
MR	10.0	Taylor Rogers	61	6.52	9.7
MR	10.0	Justin Topa	60	3.55	12.7
MR	9.0	Cole Sands	56	4.63	11.7
SU	8.7	Kody Funderburk	51	2.31	11.7