Vol. 1 · No. 117 Est. 2026

MLBjohannes

A daily register of Monte Carlo model projections and plays for the U.S. Mint.

MONDAY · APRIL 27 · 2026

TB

at

CLE

Steven Matz vs Parker Messick · Progressive Field · 6:10 PM ET

SLIGHT EDGE: CLE

TB

3.5

39%

ML +157

TOTAL

7.8

3–13

CLE

4.4

61%

ML -157

FANDUEL

ML TB +116 / CLE -136

RL +1.5 (-178) / -1.5 (+146)

Total 8.0 (O -120 / U -102)

TB 39%

61% CLE

Park1.00 Weather1.00 RL Home −1.545% RL Away +1.555% F5 Total4.2

Score Distributions

TB · mean 3.5, median 3.0

CLE · mean 4.4, median 4.0

Total Runs

O6.560%O747%O7.547%O840%O8.540%O928%O9.528%O1022%O10.522%

First 5 Innings

F5 total mean: 4.15

O3.5: 52%O4: 39%O4.5: 39%O5: 28%

Most Likely Finals

3-43%2-33%1-33%1-23%4-23%

Starters

TB Starter

Steven Matz

CLE Starter

Parker Messick

Bullpens

TB Bullpen

Role	Hlth	Pitcher	Skl	ERA	IP
LR	4.4	Jesse Scholtens	73	2.93	15.3
SU	10.0	Ian Seymour	69	7.71	11.7
MR	7.0	Kevin Kelly	61	5.23	10.3
CL	6.8	Bryan Baker	59	4.32	8.3
MR	6.0	Cole Sulser	58	4.05	13.3
LR	9.3	Trevor Martin	50	3.86	2.3
SU	8.7	Hunter Bigge	43	5.14	7.0
MR	10.0	Mason Englert	41	7.11	12.7
MR	4.0	Griffin Jax	38	8.00	9.0
MR	10.0	Yoendrys Gómez	28	7.04	15.3

CLE Bullpen

Role	Hlth	Pitcher	Skl	ERA	IP
SU	10.0	Erik Sabrowski	72	3.09	11.7
CL	10.0	Cade Smith	69	4.50	12.0
MR	7.0	Peyton Pallette	62	3.38	10.7
MR	9.0	Matt Festa	60	5.84	12.3
MR	8.0	Tim Herrin	54	0.00	5.7
MR	10.0	Hunter Gaddis	53	4.50	4.0
MR	10.0	Shawn Armstrong	52	4.22	10.7
MR	10.0	Kolby Allard	51	10.38	8.7
MR	9.0	Connor Brogdon	47	6.52	9.7

STL

at

PIT

Dustin May vs Mason Montgomery · PNC Park · 6:40 PM ET

TOSS-UP: PIT

STL

3.1

44%

ML +129

TOTAL

6.5

2–11

PIT

3.4

56%

ML -129

FANDUEL

ML STL +110 / PIT -130

RL +1.5 (-184) / -1.5 (+152)

Total 8.5 (O +100 / U -122)

STL 44%

56% PIT

Park1.00 Weather1.00 RL Home −1.538% RL Away +1.562% F5 Total3.4

⚠ STL JoJo Romero (SE:0.0) · STL Ryne Stanek (SE:0.0) · STL Riley O'Brien (CL:5.2)

Score Distributions

STL · mean 3.1, median 3.0

PIT · mean 3.4, median 3.0

Total Runs

O6.544%O734%O7.534%O826%O8.526%O918%O9.518%O1013%O10.513%

First 5 Innings

F5 total mean: 3.38

O3.5: 41%O4: 27%O4.5: 27%O5: 19%

Most Likely Finals

1-24%2-34%3-24%0-14%0-23%

Starters

STL Starter

Dustin May

PIT Starter

Mason Montgomery

Bullpens

STL Bullpen

Role	Hlth	Pitcher	Skl	ERA	IP
MR	10.0	Gordon Graceffo	62	0.77	11.7
SU	0.0	JoJo Romero	58	2.25	12.0
MR	10.0	Ryan Fernandez	57	2.45	3.7
SU	0.0	Ryne Stanek	54	9.00	10.0
MR	9.0	George Soriano	54	4.66	9.7
MR	10.0	Jared Shuster	52	4.91	3.7
SU	8.7	Justin Bruihl	52	5.84	12.3
CL	5.2	Riley O'Brien	50	0.00	13.3
MR	4.0	Matt Svanson	37	11.08	13.0

PIT Bullpen

Role	Hlth	Pitcher	Skl	ERA	IP
SU	8.7	Gregory Soto	71	2.13	12.7
SU	10.0	Isaac Mattson	70	1.32	13.7
SU	7.4	Mason Montgomery	68	4.82	9.3
CL	8.4	Dennis Santana	68	0.75	12.0
MR	9.0	Yohan Ramírez	66	2.30	15.7
MR	6.0	Evan Sisk	60	3.60	5.0
MR	10.0	José Urquidy	54	8.53	6.3
MR	9.0	Justin Lawrence	50	6.55	11.0
MR	10.0	Wilber Dotel	45	3.38	2.7
MR	10.0	Hunter Barco	36	6.43	7.0

BOS

at

TOR

Ranger Suarez vs Dylan Cease · Rogers Centre · 7:07 PM ET

SLIGHT EDGE: TOR

BOS

3.4

36%

ML +181

TOTAL

8.1

3–13

TOR

4.7

64%

ML -181

FANDUEL

ML BOS +118 / TOR -138

RL +1.5 (-184) / -1.5 (+152)

Total 7.0 (O -120 / U -102)

BOS 36%

64% TOR

Park1.00 Weather1.00 RL Home −1.548% RL Away +1.552% F5 Total4.3

⚠ TOR Jeff Hoffman (CL:3.6) · TOR Tyler Rogers (SE:2.2)

Score Distributions

BOS · mean 3.4, median 3.0

TOR · mean 4.7, median 4.0

Total Runs

O6.562%O749%O7.549%O842%O8.542%O932%O9.532%O1026%O10.526%

First 5 Innings

F5 total mean: 4.33

O3.5: 55%O4: 42%O4.5: 42%O5: 30%

Most Likely Finals

2-44%4-53%2-33%3-43%1-22%

Starters

BOS Starter

Ranger Suarez

TOR Starter

Dylan Cease

Bullpens

BOS Bullpen

Role	Hlth	Pitcher	Skl	ERA	IP
CL	8.4	Aroldis Chapman	64	1.17	7.7
MR	10.0	Jovani Morán	64	2.03	13.3
MR	8.0	Garrett Whitlock	60	2.00	9.0
MR	9.0	Zack Kelly	60	4.00	9.0
MR	9.0	Tyler Samaniego	58	0.00	5.3
MR	10.0	Justin Slaten	57	0.00	3.3
MR	8.0	Greg Weissert	50	4.82	9.3
MR	9.0	Danny Coulombe	47	3.18	5.7
MR	10.0	Ryan Watson	39	8.10	13.3

TOR Bullpen

Role	Hlth	Pitcher	Skl	ERA	IP
MR	0.0	Louis Varland	76	0.00	13.0
SU	7.4	Braydon Fisher	70	2.08	13.0
CL	3.6	Jeff Hoffman	67	7.59	10.7
SU	2.2	Tyler Rogers	65	0.73	12.3
MR	10.0	Joe Mantiply	62	4.50	8.0
MR	10.0	Mason Fluharty	61	6.23	8.7
MR	10.0	Tommy Nance	60	7.20	10.0
MR	10.0	Spencer Miles	55	3.09	11.7
LR	10.0	Josh Fleming	44	12.00	3.0

SEA

at

MIN

Luis Castillo vs Connor Prielipp · Target Field · 7:40 PM ET

TOSS-UP: MIN

SEA

4.1

44%

ML +126

TOTAL

8.7

4–14

MIN

4.6

56%

ML -126

FANDUEL

ML SEA -132 / MIN +112

RL -1.5 (+122) / +1.5 (-146)

Total 8.5 (O -122 / U +100)

SEA 44%

56% MIN

Park1.00 Weather1.00 RL Home −1.540% RL Away +1.560% F5 Total4.7

⚠ MIN Kody Funderburk (SE:4.8)

Score Distributions

SEA · mean 4.1, median 4.0

MIN · mean 4.6, median 4.0

Total Runs

O6.568%O757%O7.557%O848%O8.548%O937%O9.537%O1029%O10.529%

First 5 Innings

F5 total mean: 4.69

O3.5: 61%O4: 47%O4.5: 47%O5: 34%

Most Likely Finals

3-43%4-33%3-23%2-33%4-23%

Starters

SEA Starter

Luis Castillo

MIN Starter

Connor Prielipp

Bullpens

SEA Bullpen

Role	Hlth	Pitcher	Skl	ERA	IP
MR	3.0	Jose A. Ferrer	72	2.45	11.0
MR	10.0	Casey Legumina	71	4.63	11.7
MR	8.0	Eduard Bazardo	66	1.74	10.3
MR	9.0	Matt Brash	64	0.00	8.3
MR	8.0	Gabe Speier	61	2.79	9.7
MR	10.0	Cole Wilcox	60	6.30	10.0
CL	8.4	Andrés Muñoz	56	8.00	9.0
MR	7.0	Cooper Criswell	54	1.64	11.0

MIN Bullpen

Role	Hlth	Pitcher	Skl	ERA	IP
MR	10.0	Eric Orze	65	3.72	9.7
MR	5.0	Anthony Banda	64	9.31	9.7
MR	9.0	Taylor Rogers	63	4.15	8.7
MR	10.0	Cody Laweryson	63	4.26	6.3
MR	9.0	Cole Sands	61	3.48	10.3
MR	9.0	Garrett Acton	61	1.59	5.7
MR	8.0	Justin Topa	57	3.86	11.7
MR	10.0	Andrew Morris	57	8.31	4.3
SU	4.8	Kody Funderburk	51	2.00	9.0
MR	10.0	Kendry Rojas	47	0.00	2.0

LAA

at

CWS

Jack Kochanowicz vs Anthony Kay · Rate Field · 7:40 PM ET

TOSS-UP: LAA

LAA

4.3

54%

ML -118

TOTAL

8.1

3–13

CWS

3.8

46%

ML +118

FANDUEL

ML LAA -116 / CWS -102

RL -1.5 (+136) / +1.5 (-164)

Total 8.5 (O -124 / U +102)

LAA 54%

46% CWS

Park1.00 Weather1.00 RL Home −1.533% RL Away +1.567% F5 Total4.6

⚠ LAA Jordan Romano (CL:5.2) · CWS Seranthony Domínguez (CL:0.4)

Score Distributions

LAA · mean 4.3, median 4.0

CWS · mean 3.8, median 3.0

Total Runs

O6.562%O750%O7.550%O842%O8.542%O932%O9.532%O1026%O10.526%

First 5 Innings

F5 total mean: 4.61

O3.5: 57%O4: 45%O4.5: 45%O5: 34%

Most Likely Finals

4-24%3-23%2-33%3-43%4-33%

Starters

LAA Starter

Jack Kochanowicz

CWS Starter

Anthony Kay

Bullpens

LAA Bullpen

Role	Hlth	Pitcher	Skl	ERA	IP
MR	6.0	Sam Bachman	72	2.63	13.7
MR	6.0	Ryan Zeferjahn	70	6.94	11.7
MR	6.0	Brent Suter	65	2.12	17.0
LR	7.9	Walbert Urena	63	2.35	7.7
CL	5.2	Jordan Romano	57	6.14	7.3
MR	8.0	Chase Silseth	56	2.89	9.3
SU	8.7	Drew Pomeranz	54	7.00	9.0
MR	10.0	Mitch Farris	48	2.08	4.3
MR	9.0	Nick Sandlin	47	12.46	4.3
MR	8.0	Shaun Anderson	46	5.52	14.7

CWS Bullpen

Role	Hlth	Pitcher	Skl	ERA	IP
MR	8.0	Sean Newcomb	76	4.60	15.7
MR	10.0	Grant Taylor	73	3.97	11.3
MR	9.0	Bryan Hudson	68	1.69	10.7
MR	10.0	Lucas Sims	55	4.50	10.0
MR	9.0	Jordan Hicks	54	4.76	11.3
MR	10.0	Chris Murphy	48	10.50	6.0
MR	7.0	Jordan Leasure	44	4.63	11.7
MR	10.0	Osvaldo Bido	44	13.50	2.0
CL	0.4	Seranthony Domínguez	43	5.63	8.0

NYY

at

TEX

Max Fried vs Jack Leiter · Globe Life Field · 8:05 PM ET

SLIGHT EDGE: NYY

NYY

3.5

60%

ML -153

TOTAL

6.0

2–11

TEX

2.5

40%

ML +153

FANDUEL

ML NYY -168 / TEX +142

RL -1.5 (+100) / +1.5 (-120)

Total 8.0 (O -115 / U -105)

NYY 60%

40% TEX

Park1.00 Weather1.00 RL Home −1.524% RL Away +1.576% F5 Total3.0

Score Distributions

NYY · mean 3.5, median 3.0

TEX · mean 2.5, median 2.0

Total Runs

O6.540%O727%O7.527%O820%O8.520%O913%O9.513%O1010%O10.510%

First 5 Innings

F5 total mean: 2.97

O3.5: 34%O4: 21%O4.5: 21%O5: 13%

Most Likely Finals

2-15%3-15%1-25%3-24%4-24%

Starters

NYY Starter

Max Fried

TEX Starter

Jack Leiter

Bullpens

NYY Bullpen

Role	Hlth	Pitcher	Skl	ERA	IP
MR	10.0	Brent Headrick	75	2.08	13.0
CL	10.0	David Bednar	69	3.72	9.7
MR	2.0	Paul Blackburn	61	4.50	8.0
MR	10.0	Jake Bird	61	7.71	7.0
MR	9.0	Fernando Cruz	59	2.45	7.3
MR	9.0	Camilo Doval	53	7.56	8.3
MR	8.0	Ryan Yarbrough	52	5.63	8.0
MR	9.0	Tim Hill	50	0.90	10.0
MR	10.0	Angel Chivilli	45	3.86	2.3

TEX Bullpen

Role	Hlth	Pitcher	Skl	ERA	IP
MR	8.0	Tyler Alexander	77	0.68	13.3
MR	9.0	Jacob Latz	70	1.32	13.7
CL	8.4	Jakob Junis	65	2.38	11.3
MR	9.0	Jalen Beeks	61	1.80	10.0
MR	10.0	Cal Quantrill	58	6.75	4.0
SU	8.7	Cole Winn	56	4.91	11.0
MR	10.0	Robert Garcia	55	3.38	8.0
MR	8.0	Gavin Collyer	54	0.00	3.0
MR	10.0	Chris Martin	50	7.11	6.3
MR	10.0	Luis Curvelo	41	5.40	5.0

CHC

at

SD

Matthew Boyd vs Randy Vásquez · Petco Park · 9:40 PM ET

TOSS-UP: SD

CHC

3.1

45%

ML +121

TOTAL

6.4

3–11

SD

3.3

55%

ML -121

FANDUEL

ML CHC -102 / SD -116

RL -1.5 (+162) / +1.5 (-196)

Total 7.5 (O -118 / U -104)

CHC 45%

55% SD

Park1.00 Weather1.00 RL Home −1.534% RL Away +1.566% F5 Total3.3

Score Distributions

CHC · mean 3.1, median 3.0

SD · mean 3.3, median 3.0

Total Runs

O6.546%O733%O7.533%O825%O8.525%O916%O9.516%O1011%O10.511%

First 5 Innings

F5 total mean: 3.29

O3.5: 40%O4: 25%O4.5: 25%O5: 16%

Most Likely Finals

1-25%2-34%1-34%3-44%2-13%

Starters

CHC Starter

Matthew Boyd

SD Starter

Randy Vásquez

Bullpens

CHC Bullpen

Role	Hlth	Pitcher	Skl	ERA	IP
LR	7.9	Colin Rea	82	3.00	24.0
LR	10.0	Ben Brown	81	2.37	19.0
MR	10.0	Riley Martin	61	2.45	7.3
CL	10.0	Caleb Thielbar	60	2.08	8.7
MR	10.0	Daniel Palencia	59	0.00	5.0
MR	8.0	Hoby Milner	58	1.54	11.7
MR	10.0	Corbin Martin	53	0.00	3.0
MR	10.0	Jacob Webb	50	4.82	9.3
MR	10.0	Phil Maton	46	13.50	4.0
MR	10.0	Hunter Harvey	43	6.75	4.0

SD Bullpen

Role	Hlth	Pitcher	Skl	ERA	IP
MR	6.0	Bradgley Rodriguez	75	0.73	12.3
MR	8.0	Adrian Morejon	73	6.17	11.7
CL	8.4	Mason Miller	73	0.00	11.3
SU	10.0	Kyle Hart	69	4.91	14.7
MR	10.0	Jeremiah Estrada	60	5.14	7.0
MR	8.0	Wandy Peralta	58	2.31	11.7
MR	8.0	David Morgan	58	2.92	12.3
MR	6.0	Ron Marinaccio	57	3.65	12.3
SU	8.7	Jason Adam	57	1.93	4.7

MIA

at

LAD

Chris Paddack vs Yoshinobu Yamamoto · UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium · 10:10 PM ET

SLIGHT EDGE: LAD

MIA

4.0

37%

ML +170

TOTAL

9.2

4–15

LAD

5.1

63%

ML -170

FANDUEL

ML MIA +245 / LAD -300

RL +1.5 (+116) / -1.5 (-142)

Total 8.5 (O -105 / U -115)

MIA 37%

63% LAD

Park1.00 Weather1.00 RL Home −1.547% RL Away +1.553% F5 Total5.0

Score Distributions

MIA · mean 4.0, median 4.0

LAD · mean 5.1, median 5.0

Total Runs

O6.572%O761%O7.561%O850%O8.550%O940%O9.540%O1034%O10.534%

First 5 Innings

F5 total mean: 5.03

O3.5: 64%O4: 51%O4.5: 51%O5: 39%

Most Likely Finals

3-53%3-43%2-33%1-22%2-42%

Starters

MIA Starter

Chris Paddack

LAD Starter

Yoshinobu Yamamoto

Bullpens

MIA Bullpen

Role	Hlth	Pitcher	Skl	ERA	IP
MR	7.0	Tyler Phillips	76	0.60	15.0
CL	10.0	Pete Fairbanks	67	7.27	8.7
MR	5.0	Anthony Bender	64	6.75	9.3
MR	10.0	Ryan Gusto	64	0.00	1.0
MR	10.0	Lake Bachar	63	3.09	11.7
MR	10.0	Michael Petersen	62	3.38	10.7
MR	10.0	John King	62	0.90	10.0
MR	8.0	Calvin Faucher	61	4.50	8.0
MR	6.0	Andrew Nardi	56	5.40	8.3

LAD Bullpen

Role	Hlth	Pitcher	Skl	ERA	IP
MR	8.0	Will Klein	69	2.79	9.7
MR	10.0	Alex Vesia	67	0.00	8.7
SU	10.0	Tanner Scott	64	0.93	9.7
MR	4.0	Jack Dreyer	62	4.35	10.3
MR	6.0	Edgardo Henriquez	56	5.14	7.0
CL	10.0	Edwin Díaz	53	10.50	6.0
SU	10.0	Blake Treinen	53	4.05	6.7
MR	5.0	Kyle Hurt	50	3.00	3.0
MR	9.0	Jake Eder	50	9.00	1.0
MR	10.0	Ben Casparius	46	9.64	4.7