Vol. 1 · No. 114 Est. 2026

MLBjohannes

A daily register of Monte Carlo model projections and plays for the U.S. Mint.

FRIDAY · APRIL 24 · 2026
Games
14
Sims / Game
1000
Model
sim_v2a4
Picks
2
The Board

Today's Projections

DET
at
CIN
Framber Valdez vs Andrew Abbott · Great American Ball Park · 6:40 PM ET
SLIGHT EDGE: CIN
DET
3.4
36%
ML +179
TOTAL
7.4
4–11
CIN
4.1
64%
ML -179
DET 36%
64% CIN
Park0.96 Weather1.04 RL Home −1.539% RL Away +1.561% F5 Total3.9
DET Kenley Jansen (CL:5.2)
DET · mean 3.4, median 3.0
0123456789101112
CIN · mean 4.1, median 4.0
0123456789101112
0123456789101112131415161718
O6.562%O742%O7.542%O834%O8.534%O921%O9.521%O1015%O10.515%
F5 total mean: 3.88
O3.5: 55%O4: 34%O4.5: 34%O5: 18%
3-49%2-36%4-34%2-44%4-24%
DET Starter
Framber Valdez
ERA3.66
FIP3.23
IP192
R/93.85
CIN Starter
Andrew Abbott
ERA2.87
FIP3.57
IP166
R/93.60
DET Bullpen
RoleHlthPitcherSklERAIP
MR 8.0 Will Vest 68 5.40 10.0
MR 10.0 Enmanuel De Jesus 61 10.13 8.0
MR 10.0 Connor Seabold 56 4.22 10.7
MR 10.0 Kyle Finnegan 56 0.00 11.0
MR 9.0 Brant Hurter 56 3.00 9.0
CL 5.2 Kenley Jansen 55 1.35 6.7
MR 8.0 Tyler Holton 55 3.27 11.0
MR 10.0 Drew Anderson 49 7.94 11.3
CIN Bullpen
RoleHlthPitcherSklERAIP
MR 10.0 Brock Burke 73 0.79 11.3
SU 10.0 Graham Ashcraft 72 1.50 12.0
SU 10.0 Tony Santillan 68 0.00 10.7
MR 10.0 Pierce Johnson 67 2.61 10.3
MR 10.0 Sam Moll 63 1.64 11.0
MR 8.0 Connor Phillips 56 2.25 16.0
MR 10.0 Jose Franco 53 3.18 5.7
CL 10.0 Emilio Pagán 51 4.76 11.3
MR 10.0 Kyle Nicolas 41 9.95 6.3
BOS
at
BAL
Brayan Bello vs Brandon Young · Oriole Park at Camden Yards · 7:05 PM ET
TOSS-UP: BOS
BOS
4.6
55%
ML -122
TOTAL
8.8
5–13
BAL
4.1
45%
ML +122
BOS 55%
45% BAL
Park1.03 Weather0.97 RL Home −1.526% RL Away +1.574% F5 Total5.2
BOS · mean 4.6, median 4.0
0123456789101112
BAL · mean 4.1, median 4.0
0123456789101112
0123456789101112131415161718
O6.576%O761%O7.561%O853%O8.553%O936%O9.536%O1028%O10.528%
F5 total mean: 5.19
O3.5: 76%O4: 60%O4.5: 60%O5: 41%
4-56%5-45%3-45%3-24%6-44%
BOS Starter
Brayan Bello
ERA3.35
FIP3.92
IP167
R/94.00
BAL Starter
Brandon Young
ERA6.24
FIP5.32
IP58
R/96.21
BOS Bullpen
RoleHlthPitcherSklERAIP
CL 10.0 Aroldis Chapman 64 1.17 7.7
MR 10.0 Jovani Morán 64 2.03 13.3
MR 10.0 Garrett Whitlock 60 2.00 9.0
MR 9.0 Zack Kelly 60 4.00 9.0
MR 6.0 Tyler Samaniego 58 0.00 5.3
MR 10.0 Justin Slaten 57 0.00 3.3
MR 8.0 Greg Weissert 50 4.82 9.3
MR 8.0 Danny Coulombe 47 3.18 5.7
MR 8.0 Ryan Watson 39 8.10 13.3
BAL Bullpen
RoleHlthPitcherSklERAIP
MR 10.0 Grant Wolfram 70 2.70 10.0
CL 10.0 Ryan Helsley 68 2.79 9.7
SU 10.0 Rico Garcia 67 0.75 12.0
SU 8.7 Tyler Wells 66 3.68 14.7
MR 8.0 Anthony Nunez 65 1.46 12.3
MR 9.0 Yennier Cano 62 2.16 8.3
MR 10.0 Cameron Foster 55 9.82 3.7
LR 10.0 Albert Suárez 40 5.00 9.0
CLE
at
TOR
Gavin Williams vs Max Scherzer · Rogers Centre · 7:07 PM ET
SLIGHT EDGE: CLE
CLE
5.4
63%
ML -170
TOTAL
9.7
6–14
TOR
4.3
37%
ML +170
CLE 63%
37% TOR
Park1.05 Weather1.00 RL Home −1.519% RL Away +1.581% F5 Total5.4
CLE · mean 5.4, median 5.0
0123456789101112
TOR · mean 4.3, median 4.0
0123456789101112
0123456789101112131415161718
O6.585%O772%O7.572%O863%O8.563%O949%O9.549%O1040%O10.540%
F5 total mean: 5.43
O3.5: 79%O4: 64%O4.5: 64%O5: 48%
6-54%4-54%4-34%5-44%5-64%
CLE Starter
Gavin Williams
ERA3.06
FIP4.30
IP168
R/94.03
TOR Starter
Max Scherzer
ERA5.19
FIP4.89
IP85
R/95.45
CLE Bullpen
RoleHlthPitcherSklERAIP
SU 8.7 Erik Sabrowski 72 3.09 11.7
CL 10.0 Cade Smith 69 4.50 12.0
MR 10.0 Peyton Pallette 62 3.38 10.7
MR 9.0 Matt Festa 60 5.84 12.3
MR 10.0 Tim Herrin 54 0.00 5.7
MR 10.0 Hunter Gaddis 53 4.50 4.0
MR 10.0 Shawn Armstrong 52 4.22 10.7
MR 10.0 Kolby Allard 51 10.38 8.7
MR 10.0 Connor Brogdon 47 6.52 9.7
TOR Bullpen
RoleHlthPitcherSklERAIP
MR 10.0 Louis Varland 76 0.00 13.0
SU 7.4 Braydon Fisher 70 2.08 13.0
CL 10.0 Jeff Hoffman 67 7.59 10.7
SU 10.0 Tyler Rogers 65 0.73 12.3
MR 8.0 Joe Mantiply 62 4.50 8.0
MR 10.0 Mason Fluharty 61 6.23 8.7
MR 8.0 Tommy Nance 60 7.20 10.0
MR 10.0 Spencer Miles 55 3.09 11.7
LR 10.0 Josh Fleming 44 12.00 3.0
COL
at
NYM
Michael Lorenzen vs Freddy Peralta · Citi Field · 7:10 PM ET
TOSS-UP: COL
COL
3.9
56%
ML -129
TOTAL
7.2
4–11
NYM
3.3
44%
ML +129
COL 56%
44% NYM
Park1.01 Weather0.98 RL Home −1.521% RL Away +1.579% F5 Total4.1
COL Victor Vodnik (CL:3.6) · NYM Devin Williams (CL:3.6)
COL · mean 3.9, median 4.0
0123456789101112
NYM · mean 3.3, median 3.0
0123456789101112
0123456789101112131415161718
O6.560%O741%O7.541%O830%O8.530%O918%O9.518%O1014%O10.514%
F5 total mean: 4.13
O3.5: 60%O4: 40%O4.5: 40%O5: 23%
3-46%2-36%3-25%4-35%4-54%
COL Starter
Michael Lorenzen
ERA4.64
FIP4.43
IP142
R/94.97
NYM Starter
Freddy Peralta
ERA2.70
FIP3.46
IP177
R/93.42
COL Bullpen
RoleHlthPitcherSklERAIP
LR 10.0 Chase Dollander 86 2.88 25.0
LR 7.9 Antonio Senzatela 83 0.55 16.3
MR 10.0 Jimmy Herget 74 1.50 12.0
MR 9.0 Brennan Bernardino 70 0.87 10.3
MR 2.0 Zach Agnos 65 6.08 13.3
MR 2.0 Juan Mejia 58 6.30 10.0
SU 7.4 Jaden Hill 56 1.80 10.0
CL 3.6 Victor Vodnik 54 3.60 10.0
LR 10.0 Tanner Gordon 42 6.75 8.0
LR 10.0 Valente Bellozo 29 7.59 10.7
NYM Bullpen
RoleHlthPitcherSklERAIP
MR 8.0 Huascar Brazobán 71 0.00 10.7
MR 2.0 Tobias Myers 64 3.00 15.0
MR 10.0 Luis García 60 7.11 6.3
MR 9.0 Brooks Raley 59 2.08 8.7
LR 10.0 Sean Manaea 58 4.50 16.0
MR 7.0 Luke Weaver 57 5.40 10.0
MR 8.0 Richard Lovelady 57 3.68 7.3
MR 8.0 Craig Kimbrel 57 0.00 3.7
CL 3.6 Devin Williams 53 9.95 6.3
MR 10.0 Austin Warren 50 5.40 1.7
MIN
at
TB
Taj Bradley vs Drew Rasmussen · Tropicana Field · 7:10 PM ET
TOSS-UP: TB
MIN
4.3
45%
ML +122
TOTAL
8.8
5–13
TB
4.5
55%
ML -122
MIN 45%
55% TB
Park0.87 Weather1.00 RL Home −1.532% RL Away +1.568% F5 Total4.5
MIN · mean 4.3, median 4.0
0123456789101112
TB · mean 4.5, median 4.0
0123456789101112
0123456789101112131415161718
O6.578%O763%O7.563%O852%O8.552%O937%O9.537%O1029%O10.529%
F5 total mean: 4.53
O3.5: 66%O4: 47%O4.5: 47%O5: 30%
3-46%4-56%5-45%2-34%5-34%
MIN Starter
Taj Bradley
ERA5.05
FIP4.23
IP143
R/95.01
TB Starter
Drew Rasmussen
ERA2.76
FIP3.71
IP150
R/93.56
MIN Bullpen
RoleHlthPitcherSklERAIP
MR 9.0 Eric Orze 65 3.72 9.7
MR 9.0 Anthony Banda 64 9.31 9.7
MR 9.0 Taylor Rogers 63 4.15 8.7
MR 10.0 Cody Laweryson 63 4.26 6.3
MR 10.0 Cole Sands 61 3.48 10.3
MR 10.0 Garrett Acton 61 1.59 5.7
MR 0.0 Justin Topa 57 3.86 11.7
MR 4.0 Andrew Morris 57 8.31 4.3
SU 10.0 Kody Funderburk 51 2.00 9.0
MR 7.0 Kendry Rojas 47 0.00 2.0
TB Bullpen
RoleHlthPitcherSklERAIP
LR 10.0 Jesse Scholtens 73 2.93 15.3
SU 10.0 Ian Seymour 69 7.71 11.7
MR 9.0 Kevin Kelly 61 5.23 10.3
CL 10.0 Bryan Baker 59 4.32 8.3
MR 10.0 Cole Sulser 58 4.05 13.3
LR 10.0 Trevor Martin 50 3.86 2.3
SU 10.0 Hunter Bigge 43 5.14 7.0
MR 10.0 Mason Englert 41 7.11 12.7
MR 10.0 Griffin Jax 38 8.00 9.0
MR 10.0 Yoendrys Gómez 28 7.04 15.3
PHI
at
ATL
Andrew Painter vs Grant Holmes · Truist Park · 7:15 PM ET
STRONG LEAN: ATL
PHI
3.7
21%
ML +374
TOTAL
9.4
5–14
ATL
5.8
79%
ML -374
PHI 21%
79% ATL
Park0.99 Weather0.97 RL Home −1.558% RL Away +1.542% F5 Total5.5
ATL Dylan Lee (SE:2.2)
PHI · mean 3.7, median 3.0
0123456789101112
ATL · mean 5.8, median 5.5
0123456789101112
0123456789101112131415161718
O6.583%O770%O7.570%O860%O8.560%O944%O9.544%O1035%O10.535%
F5 total mean: 5.53
O3.5: 81%O4: 65%O4.5: 65%O5: 46%
4-56%3-44%3-54%2-54%5-64%
PHI Starter
Andrew Painter
ATL Starter
Grant Holmes
ERA3.99
FIP4.18
IP115
R/94.47
PHI Bullpen
RoleHlthPitcherSklERAIP
MR 8.0 José Alvarado 65 9.82 7.3
MR 10.0 Jonathan Bowlan 64 3.86 7.0
MR 10.0 Zach Pop 62 3.68 7.3
SU 8.7 Brad Keller 60 3.86 9.3
MR 10.0 Tim Mayza 58 4.85 13.0
MR 8.0 Tanner Banks 58 5.59 9.7
MR 9.0 Kyle Backhus 55 5.87 7.7
MR 9.0 Chase Shugart 53 1.59 5.7
CL 10.0 Jhoan Duran 50 1.35 6.7
MR 8.0 Orion Kerkering 49 4.05 6.7
ATL Bullpen
RoleHlthPitcherSklERAIP
LR 10.0 José Suarez 72 5.02 14.3
SU 2.2 Dylan Lee 72 0.82 11.0
SU 10.0 Robert Suarez 71 0.84 10.7
MR 9.0 Tyler Kinley 68 0.82 11.0
CL 10.0 Raisel Iglesias 67 0.00 8.7
MR 10.0 Aaron Bummer 53 4.05 6.7
MR 10.0 Joel Payamps 44 8.44 5.3
MR 10.0 Osvaldo Bido 44 6.30 10.0
LAA
at
KC
Yusei Kikuchi vs Noah Cameron · Kauffman Stadium · 7:40 PM ET
SLIGHT EDGE: LAA
LAA
4.0
63%
ML -168
TOTAL
7.1
4–11
KC
3.1
37%
ML +168
LAA 63%
37% KC
Park0.83 Weather0.93 RL Home −1.519% RL Away +1.581% F5 Total3.6
LAA · mean 4.0, median 4.0
0123456789101112
KC · mean 3.1, median 3.0
0123456789101112
0123456789101112131415161718
O6.555%O739%O7.539%O829%O8.529%O918%O9.518%O1012%O10.512%
F5 total mean: 3.63
O3.5: 49%O4: 29%O4.5: 29%O5: 16%
3-26%3-45%4-35%2-35%4-25%
LAA Starter
Yusei Kikuchi
ERA3.99
FIP4.14
IP178
R/94.49
KC Starter
Noah Cameron
ERA2.99
FIP4.08
IP138
R/93.86
LAA Bullpen
RoleHlthPitcherSklERAIP
MR 10.0 Sam Bachman 72 2.63 13.7
MR 8.0 Ryan Zeferjahn 70 6.94 11.7
MR 9.0 Brent Suter 65 2.12 17.0
LR 10.0 Walbert Urena 63 2.35 7.7
CL 6.8 Jordan Romano 57 6.14 7.3
MR 9.0 Chase Silseth 56 2.89 9.3
SU 10.0 Drew Pomeranz 54 7.00 9.0
MR 10.0 Mitch Farris 48 2.08 4.3
MR 10.0 Nick Sandlin 47 12.46 4.3
MR 10.0 Shaun Anderson 46 5.52 14.7
KC Bullpen
RoleHlthPitcherSklERAIP
MR 10.0 Daniel Lynch IV 68 1.00 9.0
MR 10.0 Nick Mears 62 3.12 8.7
MR 9.0 Alex Lange 58 7.59 10.7
CL 10.0 Lucas Erceg 56 5.79 9.3
MR 8.0 Mason Black 54 0.00 2.7
SU 10.0 Matt Strahm 51 5.19 8.7
MR 8.0 Eli Morgan 47 2.79 9.7
MR 10.0 Steven Cruz 40 14.40 5.0
MR 10.0 John Schreiber 39 5.63 8.0
WSH
at
CWS
Miles Mikolas vs Bryan Hudson · Rate Field · 7:40 PM ET
SLIGHT EDGE: WSH
WSH
5.8
59%
ML -145
TOTAL
10.9
7–15
CWS
5.0
41%
ML +145
WSH 59%
41% CWS
Park0.94 Weather1.02 RL Home −1.523% RL Away +1.577% F5 Total6.1
WSH Cionel Pérez (SE:4.8)
WSH · mean 5.8, median 6.0
0123456789101112
CWS · mean 5.0, median 5.0
0123456789101112
0123456789101112131415161718
O6.591%O781%O7.581%O875%O8.575%O963%O9.563%O1054%O10.554%
F5 total mean: 6.06
O3.5: 86%O4: 72%O4.5: 72%O5: 56%
6-54%5-44%6-74%5-64%4-33%
WSH Starter
Miles Mikolas
ERA4.84
FIP4.94
IP156
R/95.30
CWS Starter
Bryan Hudson
WSH Bullpen
RoleHlthPitcherSklERAIP
MR 8.0 Gus Varland 62 3.86 9.3
LR 10.0 Brad Lord 60 4.42 18.3
LR 8.6 Mitchell Parker 58 3.86 7.0
MR 8.0 Richard Lovelady 57 2.25 4.0
MR 10.0 Cole Henry 54 6.43 7.0
MR 0.0 Julian Fernández 50 9.00 2.0
CL 10.0 Clayton Beeter 45 3.48 10.3
SU 4.8 Cionel Pérez 44 8.25 12.0
MR 10.0 Andre Granillo 41 12.46 4.3
MR 10.0 PJ Poulin 39 4.97 12.7
CWS Bullpen
RoleHlthPitcherSklERAIP
MR 7.0 Sean Newcomb 76 4.60 15.7
MR 6.0 Grant Taylor 73 3.97 11.3
MR 7.0 Bryan Hudson 68 1.69 10.7
MR 8.0 Lucas Sims 55 4.50 10.0
MR 9.0 Jordan Hicks 54 4.76 11.3
MR 10.0 Chris Murphy 48 10.50 6.0
MR 10.0 Jordan Leasure 44 4.63 11.7
MR 10.0 Osvaldo Bido 44 13.50 2.0
CL 6.8 Seranthony Domínguez 43 5.63 8.0
PIT
at
MIL
Paul Skenes vs Brandon Woodruff · American Family Field · 7:40 PM ET
SLIGHT EDGE: PIT
PIT
4.1
64%
ML -180
TOTAL
7.3
4–11
MIL
3.1
36%
ML +180
PIT 64%
36% MIL
Park0.93 Weather0.98 RL Home −1.517% RL Away +1.583% F5 Total3.4
PIT · mean 4.1, median 4.0
0123456789101112
MIL · mean 3.1, median 3.0
0123456789101112
0123456789101112131415161718
O6.559%O742%O7.542%O833%O8.533%O920%O9.520%O1013%O10.513%
F5 total mean: 3.40
O3.5: 44%O4: 26%O4.5: 26%O5: 14%
3-46%3-25%2-35%4-35%4-24%
PIT Starter
Paul Skenes
ERA1.97
FIP2.23
IP188
R/92.49
MIL Starter
Brandon Woodruff
ERA3.20
FIP2.99
IP65
R/93.43
PIT Bullpen
RoleHlthPitcherSklERAIP
SU 7.4 Gregory Soto 71 2.13 12.7
SU 10.0 Isaac Mattson 70 1.32 13.7
SU 10.0 Mason Montgomery 68 4.82 9.3
CL 10.0 Dennis Santana 68 0.75 12.0
MR 8.0 Yohan Ramírez 66 2.30 15.7
MR 4.0 Evan Sisk 60 3.60 5.0
MR 10.0 José Urquidy 54 8.53 6.3
MR 8.0 Justin Lawrence 50 6.55 11.0
MR 10.0 Wilber Dotel 45 3.38 2.7
MR 10.0 Hunter Barco 36 6.43 7.0
MIL Bullpen
RoleHlthPitcherSklERAIP
MR 8.0 Aaron Ashby 75 2.93 15.3
SU 8.7 Grant Anderson 71 2.63 13.7
SU 8.7 Abner Uribe 68 4.00 9.0
CL 8.4 Trevor Megill 66 8.31 8.7
MR 10.0 Jake Woodford 61 5.91 10.7
MR 7.0 DL Hall 57 2.31 11.7
MR 6.0 Angel Zerpa 54 5.73 11.0
MR 7.0 Carlos Rodriguez 50 2.25 4.0
ATH
at
TEX
Luis Severino vs Nathan Eovaldi · Globe Life Field · 8:05 PM ET
STRONG LEAN: TEX
ATH
2.6
28%
ML +255
TOTAL
6.5
3–10
TEX
3.9
72%
ML -255
ATH 28%
72% TEX
Park0.79 Weather1.00 RL Home −1.548% RL Away +1.552% F5 Total3.4
ATH · mean 2.6, median 2.0
0123456789101112
TEX · mean 3.9, median 4.0
0123456789101112
0123456789101112131415161718
O6.548%O729%O7.529%O821%O8.521%O912%O9.512%O108%O10.58%
F5 total mean: 3.44
O3.5: 46%O4: 26%O4.5: 26%O5: 11%
3-46%2-46%2-36%4-36%1-45%
ATH Starter
Luis Severino
ERA4.54
FIP3.78
IP163
R/94.56
TEX Starter
Nathan Eovaldi
ERA1.73
FIP2.60
IP130
R/92.52
ATH Bullpen
RoleHlthPitcherSklERAIP
SU 8.7 Justin Sterner 70 3.46 13.0
MR 10.0 Jack Perkins 69 3.86 9.3
MR 10.0 Brady Basso 59 0.00 0.7
MR 10.0 Luis Medina 57 3.00 9.0
SU 10.0 Hogan Harris 56 2.45 14.7
MR 9.0 Mark Leiter Jr. 55 7.59 10.7
MR 10.0 Elvis Alvarado 53 8.38 9.7
CL 8.4 Joel Kuhnel 50 2.35 7.7
SU 10.0 Scott Barlow 50 4.09 11.0
MR 10.0 Michael Kelly 46 6.23 4.3
TEX Bullpen
RoleHlthPitcherSklERAIP
MR 8.0 Tyler Alexander 77 0.68 13.3
MR 10.0 Jacob Latz 70 1.32 13.7
CL 8.4 Jakob Junis 65 2.38 11.3
MR 5.0 Jalen Beeks 61 1.80 10.0
MR 10.0 Cal Quantrill 58 6.75 4.0
SU 8.7 Cole Winn 56 4.91 11.0
MR 10.0 Robert Garcia 55 3.38 8.0
MR 5.0 Gavin Collyer 54 0.00 3.0
MR 10.0 Chris Martin 50 7.11 6.3
MR 10.0 Luis Curvelo 41 5.40 5.0
NYY
at
HOU
Will Warren vs Lance McCullers Jr. · Daikin Park · 8:10 PM ET
TOSS-UP: NYY
NYY
5.7
52%
ML -108
TOTAL
11.0
7–15
HOU
5.3
48%
ML +108
NYY 52%
48% HOU
Park0.92 Weather1.00 RL Home −1.531% RL Away +1.569% F5 Total6.5
NYY · mean 5.7, median 5.0
0123456789101112
HOU · mean 5.3, median 5.0
0123456789101112
0123456789101112131415161718
O6.593%O784%O7.584%O876%O8.576%O963%O9.563%O1053%O10.553%
F5 total mean: 6.52
O3.5: 87%O4: 77%O4.5: 77%O5: 65%
5-64%4-54%6-54%5-43%7-63%
NYY Starter
Will Warren
ERA4.44
FIP3.96
IP162
R/94.61
HOU Starter
Lance McCullers Jr.
ERA6.51
FIP5.36
IP55
R/96.34
NYY Bullpen
RoleHlthPitcherSklERAIP
MR 8.0 Brent Headrick 75 2.08 13.0
CL 6.8 David Bednar 69 3.72 9.7
MR 10.0 Paul Blackburn 61 4.50 8.0
MR 10.0 Jake Bird 61 7.71 7.0
MR 10.0 Fernando Cruz 59 2.45 7.3
MR 10.0 Camilo Doval 53 7.56 8.3
MR 10.0 Ryan Yarbrough 52 5.63 8.0
MR 10.0 Tim Hill 50 0.90 10.0
MR 10.0 Angel Chivilli 45 3.86 2.3
HOU Bullpen
RoleHlthPitcherSklERAIP
MR 10.0 Bryan King 70 4.22 10.7
MR 10.0 Kai-Wei Teng 65 1.65 16.3
MR 9.0 Steven Okert 60 3.00 12.0
CL 6.8 Enyel De Los Santos 59 3.86 9.3
MR 10.0 Jayden Murray 54 4.50 4.0
MR 9.0 AJ Blubaugh 49 6.19 16.0
MR 10.0 Christian Roa 48 5.19 8.7
LR 10.0 Colton Gordon 40 8.59 7.3
LR 10.0 Ryan Weiss 36 6.50 18.0
MR 10.0 Bryan Abreu 35 14.73 7.3
SEA
at
STL
George Kirby vs Andre Pallante · Busch Stadium · 8:15 PM ET
TOSS-UP: SEA
SEA
4.6
56%
ML -128
TOTAL
8.5
5–13
STL
3.9
44%
ML +128
SEA 56%
44% STL
Park0.94 Weather0.96 RL Home −1.523% RL Away +1.577% F5 Total4.7
SEA · mean 4.6, median 4.0
0123456789101112
STL · mean 3.9, median 4.0
0123456789101112
0123456789101112131415161718
O6.575%O759%O7.559%O848%O8.548%O934%O9.534%O1026%O10.526%
F5 total mean: 4.73
O3.5: 71%O4: 52%O4.5: 52%O5: 33%
3-46%5-45%2-34%4-54%4-34%
SEA Starter
George Kirby
ERA4.21
FIP3.16
IP126
R/94.11
STL Starter
Andre Pallante
ERA5.31
FIP4.56
IP163
R/95.33
SEA Bullpen
RoleHlthPitcherSklERAIP
MR 8.0 Jose A. Ferrer 72 2.45 11.0
MR 10.0 Casey Legumina 71 4.63 11.7
MR 10.0 Eduard Bazardo 66 1.74 10.3
MR 9.0 Matt Brash 64 0.00 8.3
MR 10.0 Gabe Speier 61 2.79 9.7
MR 10.0 Cole Wilcox 60 6.30 10.0
CL 8.4 Andrés Muñoz 56 8.00 9.0
MR 10.0 Cooper Criswell 54 1.64 11.0
STL Bullpen
RoleHlthPitcherSklERAIP
MR 9.0 Gordon Graceffo 62 0.77 11.7
SU 10.0 JoJo Romero 58 2.25 12.0
MR 9.0 Ryan Fernandez 57 2.45 3.7
SU 10.0 Ryne Stanek 54 9.00 10.0
MR 10.0 George Soriano 54 4.66 9.7
MR 10.0 Jared Shuster 52 4.91 3.7
SU 10.0 Justin Bruihl 52 5.84 12.3
CL 10.0 Riley O'Brien 50 0.00 13.3
MR 10.0 Matt Svanson 37 11.08 13.0
CHC
at
LAD
Jameson Taillon vs Emmet Sheehan · UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium · 10:15 PM ET
SLIGHT EDGE: LAD
CHC
5.2
38%
ML +165
TOTAL
11.1
7–15
LAD
5.9
62%
ML -165
CHC 38%
62% LAD
Park1.07 Weather1.00 RL Home −1.539% RL Away +1.561% F5 Total6.0
CHC · mean 5.2, median 5.0
0123456789101112
LAD · mean 5.9, median 6.0
0123456789101112
0123456789101112131415161718
O6.593%O784%O7.584%O877%O8.577%O964%O9.564%O1055%O10.555%
F5 total mean: 6.00
O3.5: 85%O4: 70%O4.5: 70%O5: 56%
4-55%5-65%6-74%3-44%3-53%
CHC Starter
Jameson Taillon
ERA3.68
FIP4.62
IP130
R/94.48
LAD Starter
Emmet Sheehan
ERA2.82
FIP2.81
IP73
R/93.16
CHC Bullpen
RoleHlthPitcherSklERAIP
LR 10.0 Colin Rea 82 3.00 24.0
LR 7.9 Ben Brown 81 2.37 19.0
MR 6.0 Riley Martin 61 2.45 7.3
CL 8.4 Caleb Thielbar 60 2.08 8.7
MR 10.0 Daniel Palencia 59 0.00 5.0
MR 0.0 Hoby Milner 58 1.54 11.7
MR 9.0 Corbin Martin 53 0.00 3.0
MR 8.0 Jacob Webb 50 4.82 9.3
MR 10.0 Phil Maton 46 13.50 4.0
MR 10.0 Hunter Harvey 43 6.75 4.0
LAD Bullpen
RoleHlthPitcherSklERAIP
MR 10.0 Will Klein 69 2.79 9.7
MR 10.0 Alex Vesia 67 0.00 8.7
SU 7.4 Tanner Scott 64 0.93 9.7
MR 9.0 Jack Dreyer 62 4.35 10.3
MR 10.0 Edgardo Henriquez 56 5.14 7.0
CL 10.0 Edwin Díaz 53 10.50 6.0
SU 10.0 Blake Treinen 53 4.05 6.7
MR 9.0 Kyle Hurt 50 3.00 3.0
MR 10.0 Jake Eder 50 9.00 1.0
MR 10.0 Ben Casparius 46 9.64 4.7
MIA
at
SF
Sandy Alcantara vs Adrian Houser · Oracle Park · 10:15 PM ET
TOSS-UP: SF
MIA
4.1
46%
ML +117
TOTAL
8.2
5–12
SF
4.1
54%
ML -117
MIA 46%
54% SF
Park0.93 Weather1.01 RL Home −1.532% RL Away +1.568% F5 Total4.6
MIA · mean 4.1, median 4.0
0123456789101112
SF · mean 4.1, median 4.0
0123456789101112
0123456789101112131415161718
O6.572%O755%O7.555%O845%O8.545%O929%O9.529%O1021%O10.521%
F5 total mean: 4.64
O3.5: 69%O4: 49%O4.5: 49%O5: 32%
3-47%4-55%5-44%4-34%2-34%
MIA Starter
Sandy Alcantara
ERA5.36
FIP4.09
IP175
R/95.09
SF Starter
Adrian Houser
ERA3.31
FIP3.58
IP125
R/93.87
MIA Bullpen
RoleHlthPitcherSklERAIP
MR 10.0 Tyler Phillips 76 0.60 15.0
CL 8.4 Pete Fairbanks 67 7.27 8.7
MR 10.0 Anthony Bender 64 6.75 9.3
MR 10.0 Ryan Gusto 64 0.00 1.0
MR 10.0 Lake Bachar 63 3.09 11.7
MR 9.0 Michael Petersen 62 3.38 10.7
MR 10.0 John King 62 0.90 10.0
MR 10.0 Calvin Faucher 61 4.50 8.0
MR 9.0 Andrew Nardi 56 5.40 8.3
SF Bullpen
RoleHlthPitcherSklERAIP
SU 10.0 Keaton Winn 69 2.79 9.7
MR 10.0 Erik Miller 66 4.50 8.0
MR 9.0 Caleb Kilian 63 0.82 11.0
CL 8.4 Ryan Walker 60 3.27 11.0
MR 6.0 Blade Tidwell 58 2.25 8.0
MR 10.0 Matt Gage 55 1.80 10.0
MR 10.0 JT Brubaker 53 2.38 11.3
MR 10.0 Ryan Borucki 51 5.87 7.7
The Editor's Plays

On Today's Slate

PIT @ TEX
PIT ML +115 · Conf 7/10

Chandler's slider has been filthy lately and Texas is ice cold against righties this homestand. Bullpen edge swings Pittsburgh's way too.

LAD @ SF
Under 7.5 -110