Vol. 1 · No. 117 Est. 2026

MLBjohannes

A daily register of Monte Carlo model projections and plays for the U.S. Mint.

MONDAY · APRIL 27 · 2026
Games
8
Sims / Game
1000
Model
sim_v2a4_johannes
Picks
0
The Board

Today's Projections

TB
at
CLE
Steven Matz vs Parker Messick · Progressive Field · 6:10 PM ET
SLIGHT EDGE: CLE
TB
3.5
39%
ML +157
TOTAL
7.8
3–13
CLE
4.4
61%
ML -157
FANDUEL
ML TB +116 / CLE -136
RL +1.5 (-178) / -1.5 (+146)
Total 8.0 (O -120 / U -102)
TB 39%
61% CLE
Park1.00 Weather1.00 RL Home −1.545% RL Away +1.555% F5 Total4.2
TB · mean 3.5, median 3.0
0123456789101112
CLE · mean 4.4, median 4.0
0123456789101112
0123456789101112131415161718
O6.560%O747%O7.547%O840%O8.540%O928%O9.528%O1022%O10.522%
F5 total mean: 4.15
O3.5: 52%O4: 39%O4.5: 39%O5: 28%
3-43%2-33%1-33%1-23%4-23%
TB Starter
Steven Matz
CLE Starter
Parker Messick
TB Bullpen
RoleHlthPitcherSklERAIP
LR 4.4 Jesse Scholtens 73 2.93 15.3
SU 10.0 Ian Seymour 69 7.71 11.7
MR 7.0 Kevin Kelly 61 5.23 10.3
CL 6.8 Bryan Baker 59 4.32 8.3
MR 6.0 Cole Sulser 58 4.05 13.3
LR 9.3 Trevor Martin 50 3.86 2.3
SU 8.7 Hunter Bigge 43 5.14 7.0
MR 10.0 Mason Englert 41 7.11 12.7
MR 4.0 Griffin Jax 38 8.00 9.0
MR 10.0 Yoendrys Gómez 28 7.04 15.3
CLE Bullpen
RoleHlthPitcherSklERAIP
SU 10.0 Erik Sabrowski 72 3.09 11.7
CL 10.0 Cade Smith 69 4.50 12.0
MR 7.0 Peyton Pallette 62 3.38 10.7
MR 9.0 Matt Festa 60 5.84 12.3
MR 8.0 Tim Herrin 54 0.00 5.7
MR 10.0 Hunter Gaddis 53 4.50 4.0
MR 10.0 Shawn Armstrong 52 4.22 10.7
MR 10.0 Kolby Allard 51 10.38 8.7
MR 9.0 Connor Brogdon 47 6.52 9.7
STL
at
PIT
Dustin May vs Mason Montgomery · PNC Park · 6:40 PM ET
TOSS-UP: PIT
STL
3.1
44%
ML +129
TOTAL
6.5
2–11
PIT
3.4
56%
ML -129
FANDUEL
ML STL +110 / PIT -130
RL +1.5 (-184) / -1.5 (+152)
Total 8.5 (O +100 / U -122)
STL 44%
56% PIT
Park1.00 Weather1.00 RL Home −1.538% RL Away +1.562% F5 Total3.4
STL JoJo Romero (SE:0.0) · STL Ryne Stanek (SE:0.0) · STL Riley O'Brien (CL:5.2)
STL · mean 3.1, median 3.0
0123456789101112
PIT · mean 3.4, median 3.0
0123456789101112
0123456789101112131415161718
O6.544%O734%O7.534%O826%O8.526%O918%O9.518%O1013%O10.513%
F5 total mean: 3.38
O3.5: 41%O4: 27%O4.5: 27%O5: 19%
1-24%2-34%3-24%0-14%0-23%
STL Starter
Dustin May
PIT Starter
Mason Montgomery
STL Bullpen
RoleHlthPitcherSklERAIP
MR 10.0 Gordon Graceffo 62 0.77 11.7
SU 0.0 JoJo Romero 58 2.25 12.0
MR 10.0 Ryan Fernandez 57 2.45 3.7
SU 0.0 Ryne Stanek 54 9.00 10.0
MR 9.0 George Soriano 54 4.66 9.7
MR 10.0 Jared Shuster 52 4.91 3.7
SU 8.7 Justin Bruihl 52 5.84 12.3
CL 5.2 Riley O'Brien 50 0.00 13.3
MR 4.0 Matt Svanson 37 11.08 13.0
PIT Bullpen
RoleHlthPitcherSklERAIP
SU 8.7 Gregory Soto 71 2.13 12.7
SU 10.0 Isaac Mattson 70 1.32 13.7
SU 7.4 Mason Montgomery 68 4.82 9.3
CL 8.4 Dennis Santana 68 0.75 12.0
MR 9.0 Yohan Ramírez 66 2.30 15.7
MR 6.0 Evan Sisk 60 3.60 5.0
MR 10.0 José Urquidy 54 8.53 6.3
MR 9.0 Justin Lawrence 50 6.55 11.0
MR 10.0 Wilber Dotel 45 3.38 2.7
MR 10.0 Hunter Barco 36 6.43 7.0
BOS
at
TOR
Ranger Suarez vs Dylan Cease · Rogers Centre · 7:07 PM ET
SLIGHT EDGE: TOR
BOS
3.4
36%
ML +181
TOTAL
8.1
3–13
TOR
4.7
64%
ML -181
FANDUEL
ML BOS +118 / TOR -138
RL +1.5 (-184) / -1.5 (+152)
Total 7.0 (O -120 / U -102)
BOS 36%
64% TOR
Park1.00 Weather1.00 RL Home −1.548% RL Away +1.552% F5 Total4.3
TOR Jeff Hoffman (CL:3.6) · TOR Tyler Rogers (SE:2.2)
BOS · mean 3.4, median 3.0
0123456789101112
TOR · mean 4.7, median 4.0
0123456789101112
0123456789101112131415161718
O6.562%O749%O7.549%O842%O8.542%O932%O9.532%O1026%O10.526%
F5 total mean: 4.33
O3.5: 55%O4: 42%O4.5: 42%O5: 30%
2-44%4-53%2-33%3-43%1-22%
BOS Starter
Ranger Suarez
TOR Starter
Dylan Cease
BOS Bullpen
RoleHlthPitcherSklERAIP
CL 8.4 Aroldis Chapman 64 1.17 7.7
MR 10.0 Jovani Morán 64 2.03 13.3
MR 8.0 Garrett Whitlock 60 2.00 9.0
MR 9.0 Zack Kelly 60 4.00 9.0
MR 9.0 Tyler Samaniego 58 0.00 5.3
MR 10.0 Justin Slaten 57 0.00 3.3
MR 8.0 Greg Weissert 50 4.82 9.3
MR 9.0 Danny Coulombe 47 3.18 5.7
MR 10.0 Ryan Watson 39 8.10 13.3
TOR Bullpen
RoleHlthPitcherSklERAIP
MR 0.0 Louis Varland 76 0.00 13.0
SU 7.4 Braydon Fisher 70 2.08 13.0
CL 3.6 Jeff Hoffman 67 7.59 10.7
SU 2.2 Tyler Rogers 65 0.73 12.3
MR 10.0 Joe Mantiply 62 4.50 8.0
MR 10.0 Mason Fluharty 61 6.23 8.7
MR 10.0 Tommy Nance 60 7.20 10.0
MR 10.0 Spencer Miles 55 3.09 11.7
LR 10.0 Josh Fleming 44 12.00 3.0
SEA
at
MIN
Luis Castillo vs Connor Prielipp · Target Field · 7:40 PM ET
TOSS-UP: MIN
SEA
4.1
44%
ML +126
TOTAL
8.7
4–14
MIN
4.6
56%
ML -126
FANDUEL
ML SEA -132 / MIN +112
RL -1.5 (+122) / +1.5 (-146)
Total 8.5 (O -122 / U +100)
SEA 44%
56% MIN
Park1.00 Weather1.00 RL Home −1.540% RL Away +1.560% F5 Total4.7
MIN Kody Funderburk (SE:4.8)
SEA · mean 4.1, median 4.0
0123456789101112
MIN · mean 4.6, median 4.0
0123456789101112
0123456789101112131415161718
O6.568%O757%O7.557%O848%O8.548%O937%O9.537%O1029%O10.529%
F5 total mean: 4.69
O3.5: 61%O4: 47%O4.5: 47%O5: 34%
3-43%4-33%3-23%2-33%4-23%
SEA Starter
Luis Castillo
MIN Starter
Connor Prielipp
SEA Bullpen
RoleHlthPitcherSklERAIP
MR 3.0 Jose A. Ferrer 72 2.45 11.0
MR 10.0 Casey Legumina 71 4.63 11.7
MR 8.0 Eduard Bazardo 66 1.74 10.3
MR 9.0 Matt Brash 64 0.00 8.3
MR 8.0 Gabe Speier 61 2.79 9.7
MR 10.0 Cole Wilcox 60 6.30 10.0
CL 8.4 Andrés Muñoz 56 8.00 9.0
MR 7.0 Cooper Criswell 54 1.64 11.0
MIN Bullpen
RoleHlthPitcherSklERAIP
MR 10.0 Eric Orze 65 3.72 9.7
MR 5.0 Anthony Banda 64 9.31 9.7
MR 9.0 Taylor Rogers 63 4.15 8.7
MR 10.0 Cody Laweryson 63 4.26 6.3
MR 9.0 Cole Sands 61 3.48 10.3
MR 9.0 Garrett Acton 61 1.59 5.7
MR 8.0 Justin Topa 57 3.86 11.7
MR 10.0 Andrew Morris 57 8.31 4.3
SU 4.8 Kody Funderburk 51 2.00 9.0
MR 10.0 Kendry Rojas 47 0.00 2.0
LAA
at
CWS
Jack Kochanowicz vs Anthony Kay · Rate Field · 7:40 PM ET
TOSS-UP: LAA
LAA
4.3
54%
ML -118
TOTAL
8.1
3–13
CWS
3.8
46%
ML +118
FANDUEL
ML LAA -116 / CWS -102
RL -1.5 (+136) / +1.5 (-164)
Total 8.5 (O -124 / U +102)
LAA 54%
46% CWS
Park1.00 Weather1.00 RL Home −1.533% RL Away +1.567% F5 Total4.6
LAA Jordan Romano (CL:5.2) · CWS Seranthony Domínguez (CL:0.4)
LAA · mean 4.3, median 4.0
0123456789101112
CWS · mean 3.8, median 3.0
0123456789101112
0123456789101112131415161718
O6.562%O750%O7.550%O842%O8.542%O932%O9.532%O1026%O10.526%
F5 total mean: 4.61
O3.5: 57%O4: 45%O4.5: 45%O5: 34%
4-24%3-23%2-33%3-43%4-33%
LAA Starter
Jack Kochanowicz
CWS Starter
Anthony Kay
LAA Bullpen
RoleHlthPitcherSklERAIP
MR 6.0 Sam Bachman 72 2.63 13.7
MR 6.0 Ryan Zeferjahn 70 6.94 11.7
MR 6.0 Brent Suter 65 2.12 17.0
LR 7.9 Walbert Urena 63 2.35 7.7
CL 5.2 Jordan Romano 57 6.14 7.3
MR 8.0 Chase Silseth 56 2.89 9.3
SU 8.7 Drew Pomeranz 54 7.00 9.0
MR 10.0 Mitch Farris 48 2.08 4.3
MR 9.0 Nick Sandlin 47 12.46 4.3
MR 8.0 Shaun Anderson 46 5.52 14.7
CWS Bullpen
RoleHlthPitcherSklERAIP
MR 8.0 Sean Newcomb 76 4.60 15.7
MR 10.0 Grant Taylor 73 3.97 11.3
MR 9.0 Bryan Hudson 68 1.69 10.7
MR 10.0 Lucas Sims 55 4.50 10.0
MR 9.0 Jordan Hicks 54 4.76 11.3
MR 10.0 Chris Murphy 48 10.50 6.0
MR 7.0 Jordan Leasure 44 4.63 11.7
MR 10.0 Osvaldo Bido 44 13.50 2.0
CL 0.4 Seranthony Domínguez 43 5.63 8.0
NYY
at
TEX
Max Fried vs Jack Leiter · Globe Life Field · 8:05 PM ET
SLIGHT EDGE: NYY
NYY
3.5
60%
ML -153
TOTAL
6.0
2–11
TEX
2.5
40%
ML +153
FANDUEL
ML NYY -168 / TEX +142
RL -1.5 (+100) / +1.5 (-120)
Total 8.0 (O -115 / U -105)
NYY 60%
40% TEX
Park1.00 Weather1.00 RL Home −1.524% RL Away +1.576% F5 Total3.0
NYY · mean 3.5, median 3.0
0123456789101112
TEX · mean 2.5, median 2.0
0123456789101112
0123456789101112131415161718
O6.540%O727%O7.527%O820%O8.520%O913%O9.513%O1010%O10.510%
F5 total mean: 2.97
O3.5: 34%O4: 21%O4.5: 21%O5: 13%
2-15%3-15%1-25%3-24%4-24%
NYY Starter
Max Fried
TEX Starter
Jack Leiter
NYY Bullpen
RoleHlthPitcherSklERAIP
MR 10.0 Brent Headrick 75 2.08 13.0
CL 10.0 David Bednar 69 3.72 9.7
MR 2.0 Paul Blackburn 61 4.50 8.0
MR 10.0 Jake Bird 61 7.71 7.0
MR 9.0 Fernando Cruz 59 2.45 7.3
MR 9.0 Camilo Doval 53 7.56 8.3
MR 8.0 Ryan Yarbrough 52 5.63 8.0
MR 9.0 Tim Hill 50 0.90 10.0
MR 10.0 Angel Chivilli 45 3.86 2.3
TEX Bullpen
RoleHlthPitcherSklERAIP
MR 8.0 Tyler Alexander 77 0.68 13.3
MR 9.0 Jacob Latz 70 1.32 13.7
CL 8.4 Jakob Junis 65 2.38 11.3
MR 9.0 Jalen Beeks 61 1.80 10.0
MR 10.0 Cal Quantrill 58 6.75 4.0
SU 8.7 Cole Winn 56 4.91 11.0
MR 10.0 Robert Garcia 55 3.38 8.0
MR 8.0 Gavin Collyer 54 0.00 3.0
MR 10.0 Chris Martin 50 7.11 6.3
MR 10.0 Luis Curvelo 41 5.40 5.0
CHC
at
SD
Matthew Boyd vs Randy Vásquez · Petco Park · 9:40 PM ET
TOSS-UP: SD
CHC
3.1
45%
ML +121
TOTAL
6.4
3–11
SD
3.3
55%
ML -121
FANDUEL
ML CHC -102 / SD -116
RL -1.5 (+162) / +1.5 (-196)
Total 7.5 (O -118 / U -104)
CHC 45%
55% SD
Park1.00 Weather1.00 RL Home −1.534% RL Away +1.566% F5 Total3.3
CHC · mean 3.1, median 3.0
0123456789101112
SD · mean 3.3, median 3.0
0123456789101112
0123456789101112131415161718
O6.546%O733%O7.533%O825%O8.525%O916%O9.516%O1011%O10.511%
F5 total mean: 3.29
O3.5: 40%O4: 25%O4.5: 25%O5: 16%
1-25%2-34%1-34%3-44%2-13%
CHC Starter
Matthew Boyd
SD Starter
Randy Vásquez
CHC Bullpen
RoleHlthPitcherSklERAIP
LR 7.9 Colin Rea 82 3.00 24.0
LR 10.0 Ben Brown 81 2.37 19.0
MR 10.0 Riley Martin 61 2.45 7.3
CL 10.0 Caleb Thielbar 60 2.08 8.7
MR 10.0 Daniel Palencia 59 0.00 5.0
MR 8.0 Hoby Milner 58 1.54 11.7
MR 10.0 Corbin Martin 53 0.00 3.0
MR 10.0 Jacob Webb 50 4.82 9.3
MR 10.0 Phil Maton 46 13.50 4.0
MR 10.0 Hunter Harvey 43 6.75 4.0
SD Bullpen
RoleHlthPitcherSklERAIP
MR 6.0 Bradgley Rodriguez 75 0.73 12.3
MR 8.0 Adrian Morejon 73 6.17 11.7
CL 8.4 Mason Miller 73 0.00 11.3
SU 10.0 Kyle Hart 69 4.91 14.7
MR 10.0 Jeremiah Estrada 60 5.14 7.0
MR 8.0 Wandy Peralta 58 2.31 11.7
MR 8.0 David Morgan 58 2.92 12.3
MR 6.0 Ron Marinaccio 57 3.65 12.3
SU 8.7 Jason Adam 57 1.93 4.7
MIA
at
LAD
Chris Paddack vs Yoshinobu Yamamoto · UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium · 10:10 PM ET
SLIGHT EDGE: LAD
MIA
4.0
37%
ML +170
TOTAL
9.2
4–15
LAD
5.1
63%
ML -170
FANDUEL
ML MIA +245 / LAD -300
RL +1.5 (+116) / -1.5 (-142)
Total 8.5 (O -105 / U -115)
MIA 37%
63% LAD
Park1.00 Weather1.00 RL Home −1.547% RL Away +1.553% F5 Total5.0
MIA · mean 4.0, median 4.0
0123456789101112
LAD · mean 5.1, median 5.0
0123456789101112
0123456789101112131415161718
O6.572%O761%O7.561%O850%O8.550%O940%O9.540%O1034%O10.534%
F5 total mean: 5.03
O3.5: 64%O4: 51%O4.5: 51%O5: 39%
3-53%3-43%2-33%1-22%2-42%
MIA Starter
Chris Paddack
LAD Starter
Yoshinobu Yamamoto
MIA Bullpen
RoleHlthPitcherSklERAIP
MR 7.0 Tyler Phillips 76 0.60 15.0
CL 10.0 Pete Fairbanks 67 7.27 8.7
MR 5.0 Anthony Bender 64 6.75 9.3
MR 10.0 Ryan Gusto 64 0.00 1.0
MR 10.0 Lake Bachar 63 3.09 11.7
MR 10.0 Michael Petersen 62 3.38 10.7
MR 10.0 John King 62 0.90 10.0
MR 8.0 Calvin Faucher 61 4.50 8.0
MR 6.0 Andrew Nardi 56 5.40 8.3
LAD Bullpen
RoleHlthPitcherSklERAIP
MR 8.0 Will Klein 69 2.79 9.7
MR 10.0 Alex Vesia 67 0.00 8.7
SU 10.0 Tanner Scott 64 0.93 9.7
MR 4.0 Jack Dreyer 62 4.35 10.3
MR 6.0 Edgardo Henriquez 56 5.14 7.0
CL 10.0 Edwin Díaz 53 10.50 6.0
SU 10.0 Blake Treinen 53 4.05 6.7
MR 5.0 Kyle Hurt 50 3.00 3.0
MR 9.0 Jake Eder 50 9.00 1.0
MR 10.0 Ben Casparius 46 9.64 4.7