Vol. 1 · No. 120 Est. 2026

MLBjohannes

A daily register of Monte Carlo model projections and plays for the U.S. Mint.

THURSDAY · APRIL 30 · 2026
Games
11
Sims / Game
10000
Model
sim_v2a4_johannes
Picks
5
The Board

Today's Projections

DET
at
ATL
Framber Valdez vs Bryce Elder · Truist Park · 12:15 PM ET
TOSS-UP: ATL
DET
4.5
42%
ML +138
TOTAL
9.7
4–16
ATL
5.1
58%
ML -138
FANDUEL
ML DET +104 / ATL -122
RL -1.5 (+168) / +1.5 (-205)
Total 8.5 (O -110 / U -110)
DET 42%
58% ATL
Park0.99 Weather1.11 RL Home −1.543% RL Away +1.557% F5 Total5.3
Total Runs
0123456789101112131415161718
O6.574%O765%O7.565%O857%O8.557%O947%O9.547%O1040%O10.540%
First 5 Innings
F5 total mean: 5.28
O3.5: 66%O4: 54%O4.5: 54%O5: 42%
Starters
DET Starter
Framber Valdez
ERA3.43
IP34.1
K24
WHIP1.32
ATL Starter
Bryce Elder
ERA2.02
IP35.6
K31
WHIP1.01
Bullpens
DET Bullpen
RoleHlthPitcherSklERAIP
MR 7.0 Brant Hurter 65 1.98 13.7
SU 10.0 Will Vest 63 6.17 11.7
MR 10.0 Enmanuel De Jesus 61 10.13 8.0
MR 7.0 Burch Smith 61 1.69 5.3
MR 10.0 Kyle Finnegan 58 0.66 13.7
MR 10.0 Connor Seabold 53 4.09 11.0
MR 10.0 Drew Anderson 53 6.60 15.0
MR 10.0 Brenan Hanifee 50 0.00 1.0
CL 10.0 Kenley Jansen 50 3.68 7.3
MR 8.0 Tyler Holton 48 5.54 13.0
ATL Bullpen
RoleHlthPitcherSklERAIP
SU 10.0 Dylan Lee 76 1.38 13.0
MR 10.0 José Suarez 75 5.87 15.3
MR 10.0 Robert Suarez 75 0.71 12.7
SU 7.4 Tyler Kinley 72 1.38 13.0
CL 10.0 Raisel Iglesias 67 0.00 8.7
LR 8.6 Didier Fuentes 63 5.00 9.0
MR 10.0 Joel Payamps 48 6.14 7.3
MR 10.0 Carlos Carrasco 46 0.00 1.0
MR 10.0 Osvaldo Bido 43 6.30 10.0
SU 8.7 Aaron Bummer 43 4.66 9.7
HOU
at
BAL
Peter Lambert vs Chris Bassitt · Oriole Park at Camden Yards · 12:35 PM ET
SLIGHT EDGE: HOU
HOU
6.0
65%
ML -182
TOTAL
10.2
5–16
BAL
4.2
35%
ML +182
FANDUEL
ML HOU +108 / BAL -126
RL +1.5 (-194) / -1.5 (+160)
Total 8.5 (O -124 / U +102)
HOU 65%
35% BAL
Park1.03 Weather1.02 RL Home −1.524% RL Away +1.576% F5 Total5.8
Total Runs
0123456789101112131415161718
O6.579%O770%O7.570%O862%O8.562%O952%O9.552%O1044%O10.544%
First 5 Innings
F5 total mean: 5.80
O3.5: 72%O4: 60%O4.5: 60%O5: 48%
Starters
HOU Starter
Peter Lambert
ERA3.27
IP11.0
K16
WHIP1.27
BAL Starter
Chris Bassitt
ERA7.06
IP20.4
K10
WHIP2.16
Bullpens
HOU Bullpen
RoleHlthPitcherSklERAIP
MR 10.0 Bryan King 72 3.86 11.7
MR 7.0 Kai-Wei Teng 64 2.75 19.7
MR 9.0 Steven Okert 62 2.70 13.3
CL 10.0 Enyel De Los Santos 60 6.10 10.3
MR 10.0 Jayden Murray 55 6.00 6.0
MR 10.0 Christian Roa 48 5.19 8.7
MR 9.0 ID:656986 48 13.50 1.3
MR 10.0 AJ Blubaugh 47 6.23 17.3
LR 7.9 Ryan Weiss 33 6.65 21.7
MR 10.0 Bryan Abreu 33 12.96 8.3
BAL Bullpen
RoleHlthPitcherSklERAIP
SU 10.0 Rico Garcia 71 0.68 13.3
MR 10.0 Grant Wolfram 70 4.50 10.0
MR 9.0 Anthony Nunez 70 2.51 14.3
CL 8.4 Ryan Helsley 70 2.53 10.7
SU 10.0 Tyler Wells 69 3.38 16.0
MR 10.0 Yennier Cano 64 1.86 9.7
MR 10.0 Keegan Akin 57 54.00 1.0
MR 10.0 Cameron Foster 57 6.35 5.7
MR 8.0 Andrew Kittredge 56 0.00 3.0
LR 10.0 Albert Suárez 42 3.46 13.0
STL
at
PIT
Hunter Dobbins vs Paul Skenes · PNC Park · 12:35 PM ET
SLIGHT EDGE: PIT
STL
3.0
42%
ML +140
TOTAL
6.6
3–11
PIT
3.6
58%
ML -140
FANDUEL
ML STL +184 / PIT -220
RL +1.5 (-120) / -1.5 (+100)
Total 7.5 (O +100 / U -122)
STL 42%
58% PIT
Park0.83 Weather0.98 RL Home −1.540% RL Away +1.560% F5 Total3.4
Total Runs
0123456789101112131415161718
O6.547%O735%O7.535%O827%O8.527%O919%O9.519%O1014%O10.514%
First 5 Innings
F5 total mean: 3.41
O3.5: 42%O4: 29%O4.5: 29%O5: 19%
Starters
STL Starter
Hunter Dobbins
AAA 2026
IP22.7
K19
WHIP1.32
PIT Starter
Paul Skenes
ERA2.54
IP28.3
K30
WHIP0.74
Bullpens
STL Bullpen
RoleHlthPitcherSklERAIP
CL 10.0 Riley O'Brien 79 1.26 14.3
MR 9.0 Gordon Graceffo 70 1.13 16.0
MR 10.0 Ryan Fernandez 61 1.59 5.7
SU 10.0 Ryne Stanek 60 7.71 11.7
MR 10.0 George Soriano 60 4.38 12.3
SU 10.0 JoJo Romero 55 3.95 13.7
MR 10.0 Jared Shuster 52 4.91 3.7
SU 7.4 Justin Bruihl 51 5.87 15.3
MR 9.0 Matt Svanson 37 10.34 15.7
PIT Bullpen
RoleHlthPitcherSklERAIP
SU 10.0 Gregory Soto 75 1.84 14.7
SU 10.0 Mason Montgomery 74 3.65 12.3
SU 10.0 Isaac Mattson 73 1.13 16.0
MR 10.0 Yohan Ramírez 72 2.04 17.7
MR 10.0 Evan Sisk 68 2.00 9.0
MR 10.0 Justin Lawrence 56 5.14 14.0
MR 10.0 Cam Sanders 55 12.00 3.0
MR 10.0 José Urquidy 54 8.53 6.3
LR 10.0 Wilber Dotel 50 1.35 6.7
CL 10.0 Dennis Santana 50 3.29 13.7
SF
at
PHI
Logan Webb vs Cristopher Sánchez · Citizens Bank Park · 12:35 PM ET
TOSS-UP: PHI
SF
3.9
42%
ML +137
TOTAL
8.2
3–14
PHI
4.3
58%
ML -137
FANDUEL
ML SF +112 / PHI -132
RL +1.5 (-196) / -1.5 (+162)
Total 7.5 (O +100 / U -122)
SF 42%
58% PHI
Park1.04 Weather0.96 RL Home −1.541% RL Away +1.559% F5 Total4.5
Total Runs
0123456789101112131415161718
O6.563%O751%O7.551%O843%O8.543%O933%O9.533%O1026%O10.526%
First 5 Innings
F5 total mean: 4.46
O3.5: 56%O4: 43%O4.5: 43%O5: 32%
Starters
SF Starter
Logan Webb
ERA4.86
IP37.0
K32
WHIP1.38
PHI Starter
Cristopher Sánchez
ERA2.98
IP33.2
K43
WHIP1.63
Bullpens
SF Bullpen
RoleHlthPitcherSklERAIP
SU 10.0 Keaton Winn 71 2.53 10.7
MR 10.0 Erik Miller 71 3.48 10.3
MR 7.0 Blade Tidwell 65 3.00 12.0
MR 10.0 Caleb Kilian 62 0.75 12.0
CL 10.0 Ryan Walker 62 3.00 12.0
MR 10.0 JT Brubaker 58 2.51 14.3
MR 8.0 Matt Gage 55 1.50 12.0
MR 10.0 Ryan Borucki 50 5.19 8.7
PHI Bullpen
RoleHlthPitcherSklERAIP
MR 10.0 José Alvarado 67 7.45 9.7
MR 9.0 Tim Mayza 64 3.94 16.0
MR 10.0 Jonathan Bowlan 64 3.86 7.0
MR 10.0 Zach Pop 62 3.68 7.3
MR 10.0 Kyle Backhus 58 4.66 9.7
MR 10.0 Tanner Banks 57 7.20 10.0
MR 10.0 Chase Shugart 57 1.17 7.7
SU 10.0 Brad Keller 57 3.86 11.7
MR 8.0 Orion Kerkering 54 2.70 10.0
CL 10.0 Jhoan Duran 50 1.35 6.7
HOU
at
BAL
Lance McCullers Jr. vs Brandon Young · Oriole Park at Camden Yards · 12:40 PM ET
TOSS-UP: HOU
HOU
5.7
51%
ML -106
TOTAL
11.0
5–17
BAL
5.3
49%
ML +106
FANDUEL
ML HOU +108 / BAL -126
RL +1.5 (-194) / -1.5 (+160)
Total 8.5 (O -124 / U +102)
HOU 51%
49% BAL
Park1.03 Weather1.02 RL Home −1.534% RL Away +1.566% F5 Total6.3
Total Runs
0123456789101112131415161718
O6.584%O775%O7.575%O868%O8.568%O959%O9.559%O1051%O10.551%
First 5 Innings
F5 total mean: 6.31
O3.5: 76%O4: 66%O4.5: 66%O5: 54%
Starters
HOU Starter
Lance McCullers Jr.
ERA6.81
IP25.1
K24
WHIP1.51
BAL Starter
Brandon Young
ERA2.65
IP10.2
K7
WHIP1.18
Bullpens
HOU Bullpen
RoleHlthPitcherSklERAIP
MR 10.0 Bryan King 72 3.86 11.7
MR 7.0 Kai-Wei Teng 64 2.75 19.7
MR 9.0 Steven Okert 62 2.70 13.3
CL 10.0 Enyel De Los Santos 60 6.10 10.3
MR 10.0 Jayden Murray 55 6.00 6.0
MR 10.0 Christian Roa 48 5.19 8.7
MR 9.0 ID:656986 48 13.50 1.3
MR 10.0 AJ Blubaugh 47 6.23 17.3
LR 7.9 Ryan Weiss 33 6.65 21.7
MR 10.0 Bryan Abreu 33 12.96 8.3
BAL Bullpen
RoleHlthPitcherSklERAIP
SU 10.0 Rico Garcia 71 0.68 13.3
MR 10.0 Grant Wolfram 70 4.50 10.0
MR 9.0 Anthony Nunez 70 2.51 14.3
CL 8.4 Ryan Helsley 70 2.53 10.7
SU 10.0 Tyler Wells 69 3.38 16.0
MR 10.0 Yennier Cano 64 1.86 9.7
MR 10.0 Keegan Akin 57 54.00 1.0
MR 10.0 Cameron Foster 57 6.35 5.7
MR 8.0 Andrew Kittredge 56 0.00 3.0
LR 10.0 Albert Suárez 42 3.46 13.0
COL
at
CIN
Michael Lorenzen vs Andrew Abbott · Great American Ball Park · 12:40 PM ET
TOSS-UP: CIN
COL
4.0
44%
ML +127
TOTAL
8.4
3–14
CIN
4.4
56%
ML -127
FANDUEL
ML COL +146 / CIN -174
RL +1.5 (-140) / -1.5 (+116)
Total 9.0 (O -105 / U -115)
COL 44%
56% CIN
Park0.96 Weather0.92 RL Home −1.539% RL Away +1.561% F5 Total4.9
Total Runs
0123456789101112131415161718
O6.566%O754%O7.554%O845%O8.545%O935%O9.535%O1028%O10.528%
First 5 Innings
F5 total mean: 4.91
O3.5: 63%O4: 50%O4.5: 50%O5: 38%
Starters
COL Starter
Michael Lorenzen
ERA6.22
IP27.5
K19
WHIP1.93
CIN Starter
Andrew Abbott
ERA6.87
IP27.5
K19
WHIP1.85
Bullpens
COL Bullpen
RoleHlthPitcherSklERAIP
LR 10.0 Chase Dollander 89 2.25 32.0
LR 10.0 Antonio Senzatela 86 0.50 18.0
MR 10.0 Jimmy Herget 74 1.50 12.0
MR 10.0 Brennan Bernardino 71 0.82 11.0
MR 10.0 Juan Mejia 67 5.40 13.3
MR 10.0 Zach Agnos 64 5.71 17.3
SU 10.0 Jaden Hill 57 3.18 11.3
MR 10.0 Seth Halvorsen 52 0.00 2.0
CL 10.0 Victor Vodnik 51 6.94 11.7
LR 7.9 Tanner Gordon 42 7.36 11.0
CIN Bullpen
RoleHlthPitcherSklERAIP
MR 9.0 Brock Burke 79 0.63 14.3
SU 8.7 Graham Ashcraft 74 1.20 15.0
MR 10.0 Pierce Johnson 62 3.75 12.0
MR 10.0 Connor Phillips 58 2.16 16.7
MR 10.0 Sam Moll 58 2.19 12.3
SU 8.7 Tony Santillan 56 2.13 12.7
CL 10.0 Emilio Pagán 52 4.38 12.3
MR 10.0 Jose Franco 47 4.70 7.7
MR 10.0 Kyle Nicolas 37 8.59 7.3
WSH
at
NYM
Miles Mikolas vs Freddy Peralta · Citi Field · 1:10 PM ET
SLIGHT EDGE: NYM
WSH
4.0
39%
ML +153
TOTAL
8.8
4–15
NYM
4.8
61%
ML -153
FANDUEL
ML WSH +176 / NYM -210
RL +1.5 (-134) / -1.5 (+112)
Total 7.5 (O -122 / U +100)
WSH 39%
61% NYM
Park1.01 Weather0.97 RL Home −1.546% RL Away +1.554% F5 Total5.0
Total Runs
0123456789101112131415161718
O6.569%O758%O7.558%O849%O8.549%O939%O9.539%O1032%O10.532%
First 5 Innings
F5 total mean: 4.98
O3.5: 63%O4: 50%O4.5: 50%O5: 39%
Starters
WSH Starter
Miles Mikolas
ERA8.84
IP22.4
K16
WHIP1.92
NYM Starter
Freddy Peralta
ERA4.10
IP30.7
K36
WHIP1.27
Bullpens
WSH Bullpen
RoleHlthPitcherSklERAIP
CL 10.0 Gus Varland 68 3.18 11.3
MR 8.0 Brad Lord 65 3.74 21.7
MR 10.0 Mitchell Parker 60 5.40 8.3
MR 10.0 Richard Lovelady 58 1.59 5.7
MR 10.0 Paxton Schultz 56 4.00 9.0
MR 10.0 Cole Henry 54 6.43 7.0
MR 10.0 Julian Fernández 48 2.25 4.0
MR 10.0 ID:683000 47 9.00 2.0
MR 10.0 Clayton Beeter 45 3.48 10.3
SU 10.0 Cionel Pérez 43 7.62 13.0
NYM Bullpen
RoleHlthPitcherSklERAIP
MR 8.0 Tobias Myers 74 2.33 19.3
LR 10.0 Sean Manaea 69 4.66 19.3
MR 10.0 Huascar Brazobán 68 1.35 13.3
MR 10.0 Brooks Raley 61 1.86 9.7
MR 8.0 Luis García 61 7.11 6.3
MR 9.0 Craig Kimbrel 61 5.06 5.3
CL 10.0 Devin Williams 60 9.00 8.0
MR 10.0 Luke Weaver 58 4.91 11.0
MR 10.0 Richard Lovelady 58 3.68 7.3
LR 10.0 Carl Edwards Jr. 55 0.00 3.3
AZ
at
MIL
Michael Soroka vs Brandon Woodruff · American Family Field · 1:40 PM ET
TOSS-UP: MIL
AZ
3.6
48%
ML +109
TOTAL
7.2
3–12
MIL
3.6
52%
ML -109
FANDUEL
ML AZ +106 / MIL -124
RL +1.5 (-215) / -1.5 (+176)
Total 7.5 (O -115 / U -105)
AZ 48%
52% MIL
Park0.93 Weather0.97 RL Home −1.535% RL Away +1.565% F5 Total3.8
Total Runs
0123456789101112131415161718
O6.553%O741%O7.541%O832%O8.532%O924%O9.524%O1018%O10.518%
First 5 Innings
F5 total mean: 3.76
O3.5: 47%O4: 34%O4.5: 34%O5: 23%
Starters
AZ Starter
Michael Soroka
ERA2.65
IP27.2
K34
WHIP1.18
MIL Starter
Brandon Woodruff
ERA3.83
IP28.2
K23
WHIP1.03
Bullpens
AZ Bullpen
RoleHlthPitcherSklERAIP
SU 10.0 Juan Morillo 72 1.98 13.7
MR 10.0 Kevin Ginkel 71 4.38 12.3
SU 10.0 Jonathan Loáisiga 70 3.29 13.7
SU 8.7 Taylor Clarke 67 3.07 14.7
MR 10.0 Taylor Rashi 50 9.82 3.7
SU 10.0 Ryan Thompson 49 3.97 11.3
CL 10.0 Paul Sewald 49 4.50 10.0
MR 7.0 Andrew Hoffmann 42 7.71 11.7
MIL Bullpen
RoleHlthPitcherSklERAIP
MR 10.0 Aaron Ashby 83 2.45 18.3
SU 10.0 Grant Anderson 71 2.57 14.0
CL 10.0 Trevor Megill 69 7.20 10.0
MR 7.0 Jake Woodford 68 4.61 13.7
SU 10.0 Abner Uribe 68 3.97 11.3
LR 9.3 Shane Drohan 57 4.70 7.7
MR 10.0 DL Hall 57 2.31 11.7
MR 10.0 Angel Zerpa 50 6.39 12.7
MR 10.0 Carlos Rodriguez 50 2.25 4.0
KC
at
ATH
Noah Cameron vs Jeffrey Springs · Sutter Health Park · 3:05 PM ET
SLIGHT EDGE: ATH
KC
4.8
42%
ML +140
TOTAL
10.3
5–17
ATH
5.5
58%
ML -140
FANDUEL
ML KC +108 / ATH -126
RL +1.5 (-184) / -1.5 (+152)
Total 9.5 (O -115 / U -105)
KC 42%
58% ATH
Park1.10 Weather1.02 RL Home −1.544% RL Away +1.556% F5 Total5.5
Total Runs
0123456789101112131415161718
O6.579%O769%O7.569%O862%O8.562%O952%O9.552%O1045%O10.545%
First 5 Innings
F5 total mean: 5.51
O3.5: 69%O4: 56%O4.5: 56%O5: 44%
Starters
KC Starter
Noah Cameron
ERA5.31
IP25.4
K23
WHIP1.57
ATH Starter
Jeffrey Springs
ERA3.84
IP35.2
K31
WHIP1.02
Bullpens
KC Bullpen
RoleHlthPitcherSklERAIP
MR 8.0 Daniel Lynch IV 73 0.79 11.3
MR 9.0 Nick Mears 65 2.45 11.0
CL 6.8 Lucas Erceg 60 4.38 12.3
MR 10.0 Mason Black 57 0.00 3.7
MR 10.0 Alex Lange 57 7.71 11.7
SU 7.4 Matt Strahm 54 4.22 10.7
MR 10.0 Eli Morgan 48 2.61 10.3
MR 9.0 John Schreiber 43 4.50 10.0
MR 10.0 Steven Cruz 40 14.40 5.0
ATH Bullpen
RoleHlthPitcherSklERAIP
MR 9.0 Jack Perkins 75 2.92 12.3
SU 8.7 Justin Sterner 68 4.02 15.7
CL 10.0 Joel Kuhnel 64 2.16 8.3
MR 10.0 Mark Leiter Jr. 60 6.39 12.7
MR 10.0 Brady Basso 59 0.00 0.7
MR 10.0 Luis Medina 59 2.70 10.0
SU 8.7 Scott Barlow 54 3.38 13.3
MR 10.0 Elvis Alvarado 53 8.38 9.7
SU 7.4 Hogan Harris 51 2.65 17.0
MR 10.0 Michael Kelly 46 6.23 4.3
SF at PHI
TBD vs TBD · Citizens Bank Park ·5:35 PM ET
SKIPPED null_starter
starter/away — starter_id_null
TOR
at
MIN
Kevin Gausman vs Bailey Ober · Target Field · 7:40 PM ET
TOSS-UP: TOR
TOR
4.3
50%
ML -100
TOTAL
8.4
3–14
MIN
4.1
50%
ML +100
FANDUEL
ML TOR -134 / MIN +114
RL -1.5 (+130) / +1.5 (-156)
Total 8.0 (O -105 / U -115)
TOR 50%
50% MIN
Park1.06 Weather0.97 RL Home −1.534% RL Away +1.566% F5 Total4.4
Total Runs
0123456789101112131415161718
O6.565%O753%O7.553%O845%O8.545%O935%O9.535%O1028%O10.528%
First 5 Innings
F5 total mean: 4.39
O3.5: 56%O4: 42%O4.5: 42%O5: 31%
Starters
TOR Starter
Kevin Gausman
ERA2.62
IP34.3
K38
WHIP0.96
MIN Starter
Bailey Ober
ERA4.03
IP31.3
K27
WHIP1.18
Bullpens
TOR Bullpen
RoleHlthPitcherSklERAIP
CL 8.4 Louis Varland 82 0.56 16.0
SU 8.7 Tyler Rogers 73 0.59 15.3
MR 9.0 Jeff Hoffman 71 6.39 12.7
SU 10.0 Braydon Fisher 70 1.76 15.3
MR 10.0 Joe Mantiply 69 3.38 10.7
SU 8.7 Mason Fluharty 66 5.06 10.7
MR 10.0 Tommy Nance 64 6.00 12.0
MR 10.0 Spencer Miles 60 3.29 13.7
MR 10.0 ID:695445 50 6.75 1.3
LR 10.0 Josh Fleming 44 12.00 3.0
MIN Bullpen
RoleHlthPitcherSklERAIP
MR 10.0 Eric Orze 72 3.09 11.7
MR 10.0 Anthony Banda 65 8.74 11.3
MR 10.0 Garrett Acton 63 2.70 6.7
MR 10.0 Cody Laweryson 63 4.26 6.3
LR 10.0 Andrew Morris 62 7.20 10.0
MR 8.0 Luis García 61 18.00 1.0
MR 10.0 Taylor Rogers 61 6.52 9.7
MR 10.0 Justin Topa 60 3.55 12.7
MR 9.0 Cole Sands 56 4.63 11.7
SU 8.7 Kody Funderburk 51 2.31 11.7
The Editor's Plays

On Today's Slate

Phillies ML -138
Tigers/Braves Over 8.5 -116
Astros/Orioles Over 8.5 -132
Athletics ML -117
Pirates ML + Mets ML Parlay +120