Vol. 1 · No. 114 Est. 2026

MLBjohannes

A daily register of Monte Carlo model projections and plays for the U.S. Mint.

FRIDAY · APRIL 24 · 2026

DET

at

CIN

Framber Valdez vs Andrew Abbott · Great American Ball Park · 6:40 PM ET

SLIGHT EDGE: CIN

DET

3.4

36%

ML +179

TOTAL

7.4

4–11

CIN

4.1

64%

ML -179

DET 36%

64% CIN

Park0.96 Weather1.04 RL Home −1.539% RL Away +1.561% F5 Total3.9

⚠ DET Kenley Jansen (CL:5.2)

Score Distributions

DET · mean 3.4, median 3.0

CIN · mean 4.1, median 4.0

Total Runs

O6.562%O742%O7.542%O834%O8.534%O921%O9.521%O1015%O10.515%

First 5 Innings

F5 total mean: 3.88

O3.5: 55%O4: 34%O4.5: 34%O5: 18%

Most Likely Finals

3-49%2-36%4-34%2-44%4-24%

Starters

DET Starter

Framber Valdez

ERA3.66

FIP3.23

IP192

R/93.85

CIN Starter

Andrew Abbott

ERA2.87

FIP3.57

IP166

R/93.60

Bullpens

DET Bullpen

Role	Hlth	Pitcher	Skl	ERA	IP
MR	8.0	Will Vest	68	5.40	10.0
MR	10.0	Enmanuel De Jesus	61	10.13	8.0
MR	10.0	Connor Seabold	56	4.22	10.7
MR	10.0	Kyle Finnegan	56	0.00	11.0
MR	9.0	Brant Hurter	56	3.00	9.0
CL	5.2	Kenley Jansen	55	1.35	6.7
MR	8.0	Tyler Holton	55	3.27	11.0
MR	10.0	Drew Anderson	49	7.94	11.3

CIN Bullpen

Role	Hlth	Pitcher	Skl	ERA	IP
MR	10.0	Brock Burke	73	0.79	11.3
SU	10.0	Graham Ashcraft	72	1.50	12.0
SU	10.0	Tony Santillan	68	0.00	10.7
MR	10.0	Pierce Johnson	67	2.61	10.3
MR	10.0	Sam Moll	63	1.64	11.0
MR	8.0	Connor Phillips	56	2.25	16.0
MR	10.0	Jose Franco	53	3.18	5.7
CL	10.0	Emilio Pagán	51	4.76	11.3
MR	10.0	Kyle Nicolas	41	9.95	6.3

BOS

at

BAL

Brayan Bello vs Brandon Young · Oriole Park at Camden Yards · 7:05 PM ET

TOSS-UP: BOS

BOS

4.6

55%

ML -122

TOTAL

8.8

5–13

BAL

4.1

45%

ML +122

BOS 55%

45% BAL

Park1.03 Weather0.97 RL Home −1.526% RL Away +1.574% F5 Total5.2

Score Distributions

BOS · mean 4.6, median 4.0

BAL · mean 4.1, median 4.0

Total Runs

O6.576%O761%O7.561%O853%O8.553%O936%O9.536%O1028%O10.528%

First 5 Innings

F5 total mean: 5.19

O3.5: 76%O4: 60%O4.5: 60%O5: 41%

Most Likely Finals

4-56%5-45%3-45%3-24%6-44%

Starters

BOS Starter

Brayan Bello

ERA3.35

FIP3.92

IP167

R/94.00

BAL Starter

Brandon Young

ERA6.24

FIP5.32

IP58

R/96.21

Bullpens

BOS Bullpen

Role	Hlth	Pitcher	Skl	ERA	IP
CL	10.0	Aroldis Chapman	64	1.17	7.7
MR	10.0	Jovani Morán	64	2.03	13.3
MR	10.0	Garrett Whitlock	60	2.00	9.0
MR	9.0	Zack Kelly	60	4.00	9.0
MR	6.0	Tyler Samaniego	58	0.00	5.3
MR	10.0	Justin Slaten	57	0.00	3.3
MR	8.0	Greg Weissert	50	4.82	9.3
MR	8.0	Danny Coulombe	47	3.18	5.7
MR	8.0	Ryan Watson	39	8.10	13.3

BAL Bullpen

Role	Hlth	Pitcher	Skl	ERA	IP
MR	10.0	Grant Wolfram	70	2.70	10.0
CL	10.0	Ryan Helsley	68	2.79	9.7
SU	10.0	Rico Garcia	67	0.75	12.0
SU	8.7	Tyler Wells	66	3.68	14.7
MR	8.0	Anthony Nunez	65	1.46	12.3
MR	9.0	Yennier Cano	62	2.16	8.3
MR	10.0	Cameron Foster	55	9.82	3.7
LR	10.0	Albert Suárez	40	5.00	9.0

CLE

at

TOR

Gavin Williams vs Max Scherzer · Rogers Centre · 7:07 PM ET

SLIGHT EDGE: CLE

CLE

5.4

63%

ML -170

TOTAL

9.7

6–14

TOR

4.3

37%

ML +170

CLE 63%

37% TOR

Park1.05 Weather1.00 RL Home −1.519% RL Away +1.581% F5 Total5.4

Score Distributions

CLE · mean 5.4, median 5.0

TOR · mean 4.3, median 4.0

Total Runs

O6.585%O772%O7.572%O863%O8.563%O949%O9.549%O1040%O10.540%

First 5 Innings

F5 total mean: 5.43

O3.5: 79%O4: 64%O4.5: 64%O5: 48%

Most Likely Finals

6-54%4-54%4-34%5-44%5-64%

Starters

CLE Starter

Gavin Williams

ERA3.06

FIP4.30

IP168

R/94.03

TOR Starter

Max Scherzer

ERA5.19

FIP4.89

IP85

R/95.45

Bullpens

CLE Bullpen

Role	Hlth	Pitcher	Skl	ERA	IP
SU	8.7	Erik Sabrowski	72	3.09	11.7
CL	10.0	Cade Smith	69	4.50	12.0
MR	10.0	Peyton Pallette	62	3.38	10.7
MR	9.0	Matt Festa	60	5.84	12.3
MR	10.0	Tim Herrin	54	0.00	5.7
MR	10.0	Hunter Gaddis	53	4.50	4.0
MR	10.0	Shawn Armstrong	52	4.22	10.7
MR	10.0	Kolby Allard	51	10.38	8.7
MR	10.0	Connor Brogdon	47	6.52	9.7

TOR Bullpen

Role	Hlth	Pitcher	Skl	ERA	IP
MR	10.0	Louis Varland	76	0.00	13.0
SU	7.4	Braydon Fisher	70	2.08	13.0
CL	10.0	Jeff Hoffman	67	7.59	10.7
SU	10.0	Tyler Rogers	65	0.73	12.3
MR	8.0	Joe Mantiply	62	4.50	8.0
MR	10.0	Mason Fluharty	61	6.23	8.7
MR	8.0	Tommy Nance	60	7.20	10.0
MR	10.0	Spencer Miles	55	3.09	11.7
LR	10.0	Josh Fleming	44	12.00	3.0

COL

at

NYM

Michael Lorenzen vs Freddy Peralta · Citi Field · 7:10 PM ET

TOSS-UP: COL

COL

3.9

56%

ML -129

TOTAL

7.2

4–11

NYM

3.3

44%

ML +129

COL 56%

44% NYM

Park1.01 Weather0.98 RL Home −1.521% RL Away +1.579% F5 Total4.1

⚠ COL Victor Vodnik (CL:3.6) · NYM Devin Williams (CL:3.6)

Score Distributions

COL · mean 3.9, median 4.0

NYM · mean 3.3, median 3.0

Total Runs

O6.560%O741%O7.541%O830%O8.530%O918%O9.518%O1014%O10.514%

First 5 Innings

F5 total mean: 4.13

O3.5: 60%O4: 40%O4.5: 40%O5: 23%

Most Likely Finals

3-46%2-36%3-25%4-35%4-54%

Starters

COL Starter

Michael Lorenzen

ERA4.64

FIP4.43

IP142

R/94.97

NYM Starter

Freddy Peralta

ERA2.70

FIP3.46

IP177

R/93.42

Bullpens

COL Bullpen

Role	Hlth	Pitcher	Skl	ERA	IP
LR	10.0	Chase Dollander	86	2.88	25.0
LR	7.9	Antonio Senzatela	83	0.55	16.3
MR	10.0	Jimmy Herget	74	1.50	12.0
MR	9.0	Brennan Bernardino	70	0.87	10.3
MR	2.0	Zach Agnos	65	6.08	13.3
MR	2.0	Juan Mejia	58	6.30	10.0
SU	7.4	Jaden Hill	56	1.80	10.0
CL	3.6	Victor Vodnik	54	3.60	10.0
LR	10.0	Tanner Gordon	42	6.75	8.0
LR	10.0	Valente Bellozo	29	7.59	10.7

NYM Bullpen

Role	Hlth	Pitcher	Skl	ERA	IP
MR	8.0	Huascar Brazobán	71	0.00	10.7
MR	2.0	Tobias Myers	64	3.00	15.0
MR	10.0	Luis García	60	7.11	6.3
MR	9.0	Brooks Raley	59	2.08	8.7
LR	10.0	Sean Manaea	58	4.50	16.0
MR	7.0	Luke Weaver	57	5.40	10.0
MR	8.0	Richard Lovelady	57	3.68	7.3
MR	8.0	Craig Kimbrel	57	0.00	3.7
CL	3.6	Devin Williams	53	9.95	6.3
MR	10.0	Austin Warren	50	5.40	1.7

MIN

at

TB

Taj Bradley vs Drew Rasmussen · Tropicana Field · 7:10 PM ET

TOSS-UP: TB

MIN

4.3

45%

ML +122

TOTAL

8.8

5–13

TB

4.5

55%

ML -122

MIN 45%

55% TB

Park0.87 Weather1.00 RL Home −1.532% RL Away +1.568% F5 Total4.5

Score Distributions

MIN · mean 4.3, median 4.0

TB · mean 4.5, median 4.0

Total Runs

O6.578%O763%O7.563%O852%O8.552%O937%O9.537%O1029%O10.529%

First 5 Innings

F5 total mean: 4.53

O3.5: 66%O4: 47%O4.5: 47%O5: 30%

Most Likely Finals

3-46%4-56%5-45%2-34%5-34%

Starters

MIN Starter

Taj Bradley

ERA5.05

FIP4.23

IP143

R/95.01

TB Starter

Drew Rasmussen

ERA2.76

FIP3.71

IP150

R/93.56

Bullpens

MIN Bullpen

Role	Hlth	Pitcher	Skl	ERA	IP
MR	9.0	Eric Orze	65	3.72	9.7
MR	9.0	Anthony Banda	64	9.31	9.7
MR	9.0	Taylor Rogers	63	4.15	8.7
MR	10.0	Cody Laweryson	63	4.26	6.3
MR	10.0	Cole Sands	61	3.48	10.3
MR	10.0	Garrett Acton	61	1.59	5.7
MR	0.0	Justin Topa	57	3.86	11.7
MR	4.0	Andrew Morris	57	8.31	4.3
SU	10.0	Kody Funderburk	51	2.00	9.0
MR	7.0	Kendry Rojas	47	0.00	2.0

TB Bullpen

Role	Hlth	Pitcher	Skl	ERA	IP
LR	10.0	Jesse Scholtens	73	2.93	15.3
SU	10.0	Ian Seymour	69	7.71	11.7
MR	9.0	Kevin Kelly	61	5.23	10.3
CL	10.0	Bryan Baker	59	4.32	8.3
MR	10.0	Cole Sulser	58	4.05	13.3
LR	10.0	Trevor Martin	50	3.86	2.3
SU	10.0	Hunter Bigge	43	5.14	7.0
MR	10.0	Mason Englert	41	7.11	12.7
MR	10.0	Griffin Jax	38	8.00	9.0
MR	10.0	Yoendrys Gómez	28	7.04	15.3

PHI

at

ATL

Andrew Painter vs Grant Holmes · Truist Park · 7:15 PM ET

STRONG LEAN: ATL

PHI

3.7

21%

ML +374

TOTAL

9.4

5–14

ATL

5.8

79%

ML -374

PHI 21%

79% ATL

Park0.99 Weather0.97 RL Home −1.558% RL Away +1.542% F5 Total5.5

⚠ ATL Dylan Lee (SE:2.2)

Score Distributions

PHI · mean 3.7, median 3.0

ATL · mean 5.8, median 5.5

Total Runs

O6.583%O770%O7.570%O860%O8.560%O944%O9.544%O1035%O10.535%

First 5 Innings

F5 total mean: 5.53

O3.5: 81%O4: 65%O4.5: 65%O5: 46%

Most Likely Finals

4-56%3-44%3-54%2-54%5-64%

Starters

PHI Starter

Andrew Painter

ATL Starter

Grant Holmes

ERA3.99

FIP4.18

IP115

R/94.47

Bullpens

PHI Bullpen

Role	Hlth	Pitcher	Skl	ERA	IP
MR	8.0	José Alvarado	65	9.82	7.3
MR	10.0	Jonathan Bowlan	64	3.86	7.0
MR	10.0	Zach Pop	62	3.68	7.3
SU	8.7	Brad Keller	60	3.86	9.3
MR	10.0	Tim Mayza	58	4.85	13.0
MR	8.0	Tanner Banks	58	5.59	9.7
MR	9.0	Kyle Backhus	55	5.87	7.7
MR	9.0	Chase Shugart	53	1.59	5.7
CL	10.0	Jhoan Duran	50	1.35	6.7
MR	8.0	Orion Kerkering	49	4.05	6.7

ATL Bullpen

Role	Hlth	Pitcher	Skl	ERA	IP
LR	10.0	José Suarez	72	5.02	14.3
SU	2.2	Dylan Lee	72	0.82	11.0
SU	10.0	Robert Suarez	71	0.84	10.7
MR	9.0	Tyler Kinley	68	0.82	11.0
CL	10.0	Raisel Iglesias	67	0.00	8.7
MR	10.0	Aaron Bummer	53	4.05	6.7
MR	10.0	Joel Payamps	44	8.44	5.3
MR	10.0	Osvaldo Bido	44	6.30	10.0

LAA

at

KC

Yusei Kikuchi vs Noah Cameron · Kauffman Stadium · 7:40 PM ET

SLIGHT EDGE: LAA

LAA

4.0

63%

ML -168

TOTAL

7.1

4–11

KC

3.1

37%

ML +168

LAA 63%

37% KC

Park0.83 Weather0.93 RL Home −1.519% RL Away +1.581% F5 Total3.6

Score Distributions

LAA · mean 4.0, median 4.0

KC · mean 3.1, median 3.0

Total Runs

O6.555%O739%O7.539%O829%O8.529%O918%O9.518%O1012%O10.512%

First 5 Innings

F5 total mean: 3.63

O3.5: 49%O4: 29%O4.5: 29%O5: 16%

Most Likely Finals

3-26%3-45%4-35%2-35%4-25%

Starters

LAA Starter

Yusei Kikuchi

ERA3.99

FIP4.14

IP178

R/94.49

KC Starter

Noah Cameron

ERA2.99

FIP4.08

IP138

R/93.86

Bullpens

LAA Bullpen

Role	Hlth	Pitcher	Skl	ERA	IP
MR	10.0	Sam Bachman	72	2.63	13.7
MR	8.0	Ryan Zeferjahn	70	6.94	11.7
MR	9.0	Brent Suter	65	2.12	17.0
LR	10.0	Walbert Urena	63	2.35	7.7
CL	6.8	Jordan Romano	57	6.14	7.3
MR	9.0	Chase Silseth	56	2.89	9.3
SU	10.0	Drew Pomeranz	54	7.00	9.0
MR	10.0	Mitch Farris	48	2.08	4.3
MR	10.0	Nick Sandlin	47	12.46	4.3
MR	10.0	Shaun Anderson	46	5.52	14.7

KC Bullpen

Role	Hlth	Pitcher	Skl	ERA	IP
MR	10.0	Daniel Lynch IV	68	1.00	9.0
MR	10.0	Nick Mears	62	3.12	8.7
MR	9.0	Alex Lange	58	7.59	10.7
CL	10.0	Lucas Erceg	56	5.79	9.3
MR	8.0	Mason Black	54	0.00	2.7
SU	10.0	Matt Strahm	51	5.19	8.7
MR	8.0	Eli Morgan	47	2.79	9.7
MR	10.0	Steven Cruz	40	14.40	5.0
MR	10.0	John Schreiber	39	5.63	8.0

WSH

at

CWS

Miles Mikolas vs Bryan Hudson · Rate Field · 7:40 PM ET

SLIGHT EDGE: WSH

WSH

5.8

59%

ML -145

TOTAL

10.9

7–15

CWS

5.0

41%

ML +145

WSH 59%

41% CWS

Park0.94 Weather1.02 RL Home −1.523% RL Away +1.577% F5 Total6.1

⚠ WSH Cionel Pérez (SE:4.8)

Score Distributions

WSH · mean 5.8, median 6.0

CWS · mean 5.0, median 5.0

Total Runs

O6.591%O781%O7.581%O875%O8.575%O963%O9.563%O1054%O10.554%

First 5 Innings

F5 total mean: 6.06

O3.5: 86%O4: 72%O4.5: 72%O5: 56%

Most Likely Finals

6-54%5-44%6-74%5-64%4-33%

Starters

WSH Starter

Miles Mikolas

ERA4.84

FIP4.94

IP156

R/95.30

CWS Starter

Bryan Hudson

Bullpens

WSH Bullpen

Role	Hlth	Pitcher	Skl	ERA	IP
MR	8.0	Gus Varland	62	3.86	9.3
LR	10.0	Brad Lord	60	4.42	18.3
LR	8.6	Mitchell Parker	58	3.86	7.0
MR	8.0	Richard Lovelady	57	2.25	4.0
MR	10.0	Cole Henry	54	6.43	7.0
MR	0.0	Julian Fernández	50	9.00	2.0
CL	10.0	Clayton Beeter	45	3.48	10.3
SU	4.8	Cionel Pérez	44	8.25	12.0
MR	10.0	Andre Granillo	41	12.46	4.3
MR	10.0	PJ Poulin	39	4.97	12.7

CWS Bullpen

Role	Hlth	Pitcher	Skl	ERA	IP
MR	7.0	Sean Newcomb	76	4.60	15.7
MR	6.0	Grant Taylor	73	3.97	11.3
MR	7.0	Bryan Hudson	68	1.69	10.7
MR	8.0	Lucas Sims	55	4.50	10.0
MR	9.0	Jordan Hicks	54	4.76	11.3
MR	10.0	Chris Murphy	48	10.50	6.0
MR	10.0	Jordan Leasure	44	4.63	11.7
MR	10.0	Osvaldo Bido	44	13.50	2.0
CL	6.8	Seranthony Domínguez	43	5.63	8.0

PIT

at

MIL

Paul Skenes vs Brandon Woodruff · American Family Field · 7:40 PM ET

SLIGHT EDGE: PIT

PIT

4.1

64%

ML -180

TOTAL

7.3

4–11

MIL

3.1

36%

ML +180

PIT 64%

36% MIL

Park0.93 Weather0.98 RL Home −1.517% RL Away +1.583% F5 Total3.4

Score Distributions

PIT · mean 4.1, median 4.0

MIL · mean 3.1, median 3.0

Total Runs

O6.559%O742%O7.542%O833%O8.533%O920%O9.520%O1013%O10.513%

First 5 Innings

F5 total mean: 3.40

O3.5: 44%O4: 26%O4.5: 26%O5: 14%

Most Likely Finals

3-46%3-25%2-35%4-35%4-24%

Starters

PIT Starter

Paul Skenes

ERA1.97

FIP2.23

IP188

R/92.49

MIL Starter

Brandon Woodruff

ERA3.20

FIP2.99

IP65

R/93.43

Bullpens

PIT Bullpen

Role	Hlth	Pitcher	Skl	ERA	IP
SU	7.4	Gregory Soto	71	2.13	12.7
SU	10.0	Isaac Mattson	70	1.32	13.7
SU	10.0	Mason Montgomery	68	4.82	9.3
CL	10.0	Dennis Santana	68	0.75	12.0
MR	8.0	Yohan Ramírez	66	2.30	15.7
MR	4.0	Evan Sisk	60	3.60	5.0
MR	10.0	José Urquidy	54	8.53	6.3
MR	8.0	Justin Lawrence	50	6.55	11.0
MR	10.0	Wilber Dotel	45	3.38	2.7
MR	10.0	Hunter Barco	36	6.43	7.0

MIL Bullpen

Role	Hlth	Pitcher	Skl	ERA	IP
MR	8.0	Aaron Ashby	75	2.93	15.3
SU	8.7	Grant Anderson	71	2.63	13.7
SU	8.7	Abner Uribe	68	4.00	9.0
CL	8.4	Trevor Megill	66	8.31	8.7
MR	10.0	Jake Woodford	61	5.91	10.7
MR	7.0	DL Hall	57	2.31	11.7
MR	6.0	Angel Zerpa	54	5.73	11.0
MR	7.0	Carlos Rodriguez	50	2.25	4.0

ATH

at

TEX

Luis Severino vs Nathan Eovaldi · Globe Life Field · 8:05 PM ET

STRONG LEAN: TEX

ATH

2.6

28%

ML +255

TOTAL

6.5

3–10

TEX

3.9

72%

ML -255

ATH 28%

72% TEX

Park0.79 Weather1.00 RL Home −1.548% RL Away +1.552% F5 Total3.4

Score Distributions

ATH · mean 2.6, median 2.0

TEX · mean 3.9, median 4.0

Total Runs

O6.548%O729%O7.529%O821%O8.521%O912%O9.512%O108%O10.58%

First 5 Innings

F5 total mean: 3.44

O3.5: 46%O4: 26%O4.5: 26%O5: 11%

Most Likely Finals

3-46%2-46%2-36%4-36%1-45%

Starters

ATH Starter

Luis Severino

ERA4.54

FIP3.78

IP163

R/94.56

TEX Starter

Nathan Eovaldi

ERA1.73

FIP2.60

IP130

R/92.52

Bullpens

ATH Bullpen

Role	Hlth	Pitcher	Skl	ERA	IP
SU	8.7	Justin Sterner	70	3.46	13.0
MR	10.0	Jack Perkins	69	3.86	9.3
MR	10.0	Brady Basso	59	0.00	0.7
MR	10.0	Luis Medina	57	3.00	9.0
SU	10.0	Hogan Harris	56	2.45	14.7
MR	9.0	Mark Leiter Jr.	55	7.59	10.7
MR	10.0	Elvis Alvarado	53	8.38	9.7
CL	8.4	Joel Kuhnel	50	2.35	7.7
SU	10.0	Scott Barlow	50	4.09	11.0
MR	10.0	Michael Kelly	46	6.23	4.3

TEX Bullpen

Role	Hlth	Pitcher	Skl	ERA	IP
MR	8.0	Tyler Alexander	77	0.68	13.3
MR	10.0	Jacob Latz	70	1.32	13.7
CL	8.4	Jakob Junis	65	2.38	11.3
MR	5.0	Jalen Beeks	61	1.80	10.0
MR	10.0	Cal Quantrill	58	6.75	4.0
SU	8.7	Cole Winn	56	4.91	11.0
MR	10.0	Robert Garcia	55	3.38	8.0
MR	5.0	Gavin Collyer	54	0.00	3.0
MR	10.0	Chris Martin	50	7.11	6.3
MR	10.0	Luis Curvelo	41	5.40	5.0

NYY

at

HOU

Will Warren vs Lance McCullers Jr. · Daikin Park · 8:10 PM ET

TOSS-UP: NYY

NYY

5.7

52%

ML -108

TOTAL

11.0

7–15

HOU

5.3

48%

ML +108

NYY 52%

48% HOU

Park0.92 Weather1.00 RL Home −1.531% RL Away +1.569% F5 Total6.5

Score Distributions

NYY · mean 5.7, median 5.0

HOU · mean 5.3, median 5.0

Total Runs

O6.593%O784%O7.584%O876%O8.576%O963%O9.563%O1053%O10.553%

First 5 Innings

F5 total mean: 6.52

O3.5: 87%O4: 77%O4.5: 77%O5: 65%

Most Likely Finals

5-64%4-54%6-54%5-43%7-63%

Starters

NYY Starter

Will Warren

ERA4.44

FIP3.96

IP162

R/94.61

HOU Starter

Lance McCullers Jr.

ERA6.51

FIP5.36

IP55

R/96.34

Bullpens

NYY Bullpen

Role	Hlth	Pitcher	Skl	ERA	IP
MR	8.0	Brent Headrick	75	2.08	13.0
CL	6.8	David Bednar	69	3.72	9.7
MR	10.0	Paul Blackburn	61	4.50	8.0
MR	10.0	Jake Bird	61	7.71	7.0
MR	10.0	Fernando Cruz	59	2.45	7.3
MR	10.0	Camilo Doval	53	7.56	8.3
MR	10.0	Ryan Yarbrough	52	5.63	8.0
MR	10.0	Tim Hill	50	0.90	10.0
MR	10.0	Angel Chivilli	45	3.86	2.3

HOU Bullpen

Role	Hlth	Pitcher	Skl	ERA	IP
MR	10.0	Bryan King	70	4.22	10.7
MR	10.0	Kai-Wei Teng	65	1.65	16.3
MR	9.0	Steven Okert	60	3.00	12.0
CL	6.8	Enyel De Los Santos	59	3.86	9.3
MR	10.0	Jayden Murray	54	4.50	4.0
MR	9.0	AJ Blubaugh	49	6.19	16.0
MR	10.0	Christian Roa	48	5.19	8.7
LR	10.0	Colton Gordon	40	8.59	7.3
LR	10.0	Ryan Weiss	36	6.50	18.0
MR	10.0	Bryan Abreu	35	14.73	7.3

SEA

at

STL

George Kirby vs Andre Pallante · Busch Stadium · 8:15 PM ET

TOSS-UP: SEA

SEA

4.6

56%

ML -128

TOTAL

8.5

5–13

STL

3.9

44%

ML +128

SEA 56%

44% STL

Park0.94 Weather0.96 RL Home −1.523% RL Away +1.577% F5 Total4.7

Score Distributions

SEA · mean 4.6, median 4.0

STL · mean 3.9, median 4.0

Total Runs

O6.575%O759%O7.559%O848%O8.548%O934%O9.534%O1026%O10.526%

First 5 Innings

F5 total mean: 4.73

O3.5: 71%O4: 52%O4.5: 52%O5: 33%

Most Likely Finals

3-46%5-45%2-34%4-54%4-34%

Starters

SEA Starter

George Kirby

ERA4.21

FIP3.16

IP126

R/94.11

STL Starter

Andre Pallante

ERA5.31

FIP4.56

IP163

R/95.33

Bullpens

SEA Bullpen

Role	Hlth	Pitcher	Skl	ERA	IP
MR	8.0	Jose A. Ferrer	72	2.45	11.0
MR	10.0	Casey Legumina	71	4.63	11.7
MR	10.0	Eduard Bazardo	66	1.74	10.3
MR	9.0	Matt Brash	64	0.00	8.3
MR	10.0	Gabe Speier	61	2.79	9.7
MR	10.0	Cole Wilcox	60	6.30	10.0
CL	8.4	Andrés Muñoz	56	8.00	9.0
MR	10.0	Cooper Criswell	54	1.64	11.0

STL Bullpen

Role	Hlth	Pitcher	Skl	ERA	IP
MR	9.0	Gordon Graceffo	62	0.77	11.7
SU	10.0	JoJo Romero	58	2.25	12.0
MR	9.0	Ryan Fernandez	57	2.45	3.7
SU	10.0	Ryne Stanek	54	9.00	10.0
MR	10.0	George Soriano	54	4.66	9.7
MR	10.0	Jared Shuster	52	4.91	3.7
SU	10.0	Justin Bruihl	52	5.84	12.3
CL	10.0	Riley O'Brien	50	0.00	13.3
MR	10.0	Matt Svanson	37	11.08	13.0

CHC

at

LAD

Jameson Taillon vs Emmet Sheehan · UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium · 10:15 PM ET

SLIGHT EDGE: LAD

CHC

5.2

38%

ML +165

TOTAL

11.1

7–15

LAD

5.9

62%

ML -165

CHC 38%

62% LAD

Park1.07 Weather1.00 RL Home −1.539% RL Away +1.561% F5 Total6.0

Score Distributions

CHC · mean 5.2, median 5.0

LAD · mean 5.9, median 6.0

Total Runs

O6.593%O784%O7.584%O877%O8.577%O964%O9.564%O1055%O10.555%

First 5 Innings

F5 total mean: 6.00

O3.5: 85%O4: 70%O4.5: 70%O5: 56%

Most Likely Finals

4-55%5-65%6-74%3-44%3-53%

Starters

CHC Starter

Jameson Taillon

ERA3.68

FIP4.62

IP130

R/94.48

LAD Starter

Emmet Sheehan

ERA2.82

FIP2.81

IP73

R/93.16

Bullpens

CHC Bullpen

Role	Hlth	Pitcher	Skl	ERA	IP
LR	10.0	Colin Rea	82	3.00	24.0
LR	7.9	Ben Brown	81	2.37	19.0
MR	6.0	Riley Martin	61	2.45	7.3
CL	8.4	Caleb Thielbar	60	2.08	8.7
MR	10.0	Daniel Palencia	59	0.00	5.0
MR	0.0	Hoby Milner	58	1.54	11.7
MR	9.0	Corbin Martin	53	0.00	3.0
MR	8.0	Jacob Webb	50	4.82	9.3
MR	10.0	Phil Maton	46	13.50	4.0
MR	10.0	Hunter Harvey	43	6.75	4.0

LAD Bullpen

Role	Hlth	Pitcher	Skl	ERA	IP
MR	10.0	Will Klein	69	2.79	9.7
MR	10.0	Alex Vesia	67	0.00	8.7
SU	7.4	Tanner Scott	64	0.93	9.7
MR	9.0	Jack Dreyer	62	4.35	10.3
MR	10.0	Edgardo Henriquez	56	5.14	7.0
CL	10.0	Edwin Díaz	53	10.50	6.0
SU	10.0	Blake Treinen	53	4.05	6.7
MR	9.0	Kyle Hurt	50	3.00	3.0
MR	10.0	Jake Eder	50	9.00	1.0
MR	10.0	Ben Casparius	46	9.64	4.7

MIA

at

SF

Sandy Alcantara vs Adrian Houser · Oracle Park · 10:15 PM ET

TOSS-UP: SF

MIA

4.1

46%

ML +117

TOTAL

8.2

5–12

SF

4.1

54%

ML -117

MIA 46%

54% SF

Park0.93 Weather1.01 RL Home −1.532% RL Away +1.568% F5 Total4.6

Score Distributions

MIA · mean 4.1, median 4.0

SF · mean 4.1, median 4.0

Total Runs

O6.572%O755%O7.555%O845%O8.545%O929%O9.529%O1021%O10.521%

First 5 Innings

F5 total mean: 4.64

O3.5: 69%O4: 49%O4.5: 49%O5: 32%

Most Likely Finals

3-47%4-55%5-44%4-34%2-34%

Starters

MIA Starter

Sandy Alcantara

ERA5.36

FIP4.09

IP175

R/95.09

SF Starter

Adrian Houser

ERA3.31

FIP3.58

IP125

R/93.87

Bullpens

MIA Bullpen

Role	Hlth	Pitcher	Skl	ERA	IP
MR	10.0	Tyler Phillips	76	0.60	15.0
CL	8.4	Pete Fairbanks	67	7.27	8.7
MR	10.0	Anthony Bender	64	6.75	9.3
MR	10.0	Ryan Gusto	64	0.00	1.0
MR	10.0	Lake Bachar	63	3.09	11.7
MR	9.0	Michael Petersen	62	3.38	10.7
MR	10.0	John King	62	0.90	10.0
MR	10.0	Calvin Faucher	61	4.50	8.0
MR	9.0	Andrew Nardi	56	5.40	8.3

SF Bullpen

Role	Hlth	Pitcher	Skl	ERA	IP
SU	10.0	Keaton Winn	69	2.79	9.7
MR	10.0	Erik Miller	66	4.50	8.0
MR	9.0	Caleb Kilian	63	0.82	11.0
CL	8.4	Ryan Walker	60	3.27	11.0
MR	6.0	Blade Tidwell	58	2.25	8.0
MR	10.0	Matt Gage	55	1.80	10.0
MR	10.0	JT Brubaker	53	2.38	11.3
MR	10.0	Ryan Borucki	51	5.87	7.7

The Editor's Plays

On Today's Slate

PIT @ TEX

PIT ML +115 · Conf 7/10

Chandler's slider has been filthy lately and Texas is ice cold against righties this homestand. Bullpen edge swings Pittsburgh's way too.

LAD @ SF

Under 7.5 -110