Vol. 1 · No. 124 Est. 2026

MLBjohannes

A daily register of Monte Carlo model projections and plays for the U.S. Mint.

MONDAY · MAY 4 · 2026

NYM at COL

TBD vs Tomoyuki Sugano · Coors Field ·5:40 PM ET

SKIPPED null_starter

starter/away — starter_id_null

BOS

at

DET

Payton Tolle vs Tarik Skubal · Comerica Park · 6:40 PM ET

SLIGHT EDGE: DET

BOS

3.8

34%

ML +197

TOTAL

9.1

4–15

DET

5.3

66%

ML -197

FANDUEL

ML BOS +194 / DET -235

RL +1.5 (-115) / -1.5 (-104)

Total 7.0 (O -105 / U -115)

BOS 34%

66% DET

Park1.03 Weather1.04 RL Home −1.551% RL Away +1.549% F5 Total5.0

Total Runs

O6.571%O759%O7.559%O850%O8.550%O941%O9.541%O1033%O10.533%

First 5 Innings

F5 total mean: 4.96

O3.5: 63%O4: 50%O4.5: 50%O5: 38%

Starters

BOS Starter

Payton Tolle

ERA3.53

IP10.2

K15

WHIP1.08

DET Starter

Tarik Skubal

ERA2.76

IP42.4

K45

WHIP0.97

Bullpens

BOS Bullpen

Role	Hlth	Pitcher	Skl	ERA	IP
CL	6.8	Aroldis Chapman	67	1.04	8.7
MR	3.0	Tyler Samaniego	64	0.00	8.3
SU	7.4	Garrett Whitlock	62	2.70	10.0
MR	8.0	Zack Kelly	62	3.48	10.3
MR	8.0	Jovani Morán	59	2.25	16.0
MR	10.0	Justin Slaten	57	0.00	3.3
MR	6.0	Greg Weissert	54	3.86	11.7
MR	10.0	Danny Coulombe	53	6.14	7.3
MR	7.0	Ryan Watson	51	6.62	17.7

DET Bullpen

Role	Hlth	Pitcher	Skl	ERA	IP
MR	4.0	Brant Hurter	65	1.98	13.7
SU	10.0	Will Vest	63	6.17	11.7
MR	10.0	Enmanuel De Jesus	61	10.13	8.0
MR	8.0	Burch Smith	61	1.69	5.3
MR	8.0	Kyle Finnegan	58	0.66	13.7
MR	10.0	Connor Seabold	53	4.09	11.0
MR	8.0	Drew Anderson	53	6.60	15.0
MR	6.0	Brenan Hanifee	50	0.00	1.0
CL	10.0	Kenley Jansen	50	3.68	7.3
MR	8.0	Tyler Holton	48	5.54	13.0

TOR at TB

TBD vs Nick Martinez · Tropicana Field ·6:40 PM ET

SKIPPED null_starter

starter/away — starter_id_null

PHI

at

MIA

Aaron Nola vs Janson Junk · loanDepot park · 6:40 PM ET

TOSS-UP: MIA

PHI

3.8

45%

ML +124

TOTAL

8.0

3–13

MIA

4.2

55%

ML -124

FANDUEL

ML PHI -116 / MIA -102

RL -1.5 (+138) / +1.5 (-170)

Total 8.5 (O -112 / U -108)

PHI 45%

55% MIA

Park0.94 Weather1.00 RL Home −1.538% RL Away +1.562% F5 Total4.4

Total Runs

O6.562%O750%O7.550%O841%O8.541%O931%O9.531%O1024%O10.524%

First 5 Innings

F5 total mean: 4.37

O3.5: 56%O4: 42%O4.5: 42%O5: 31%

Starters

PHI Starter

Aaron Nola

ERA6.22

IP30.4

K35

WHIP1.61

MIA Starter

Janson Junk

ERA3.07

IP32.3

K21

WHIP1.08

Bullpens

PHI Bullpen

Role	Hlth	Pitcher	Skl	ERA	IP
MR	10.0	José Alvarado	67	7.45	9.7
MR	10.0	Tim Mayza	64	3.94	16.0
MR	10.0	Jonathan Bowlan	64	3.86	7.0
MR	10.0	Zach Pop	62	3.68	7.3
MR	10.0	Kyle Backhus	58	4.66	9.7
MR	8.0	Tanner Banks	57	7.20	10.0
MR	8.0	Chase Shugart	57	1.17	7.7
SU	10.0	Brad Keller	57	3.86	11.7
MR	5.0	Orion Kerkering	54	2.70	10.0
CL	10.0	Jhoan Duran	50	1.35	6.7

MIA Bullpen

Role	Hlth	Pitcher	Skl	ERA	IP
SU	8.7	Anthony Bender	68	5.25	12.0
MR	2.0	Tyler Phillips	68	1.47	18.3
MR	10.0	Michael Petersen	65	3.65	12.3
MR	8.0	John King	65	0.71	12.7
MR	10.0	Ryan Gusto	64	0.00	1.0
MR	8.0	Calvin Faucher	63	5.40	10.0
CL	10.0	Pete Fairbanks	63	10.00	9.0
MR	10.0	Lake Bachar	59	3.29	13.7
SU	8.7	Andrew Nardi	48	7.20	10.0

BAL

at

NYY

Shane Baz vs Cam Schlittler · Yankee Stadium · 7:05 PM ET

SLIGHT EDGE: NYY

BAL

3.6

34%

ML +196

TOTAL

8.7

4–14

NYY

5.1

66%

ML -196

FANDUEL

ML BAL +198 / NYY -240

RL +1.5 (-108) / -1.5 (-111)

Total 8.5 (O -105 / U -115)

BAL 34%

66% NYY

Park0.99 Weather1.02 RL Home −1.550% RL Away +1.550% F5 Total4.6

Total Runs

O6.567%O756%O7.556%O848%O8.548%O938%O9.538%O1031%O10.531%

First 5 Innings

F5 total mean: 4.60

O3.5: 59%O4: 46%O4.5: 46%O5: 34%

Starters

BAL Starter

Shane Baz

ERA4.69

IP32.6

K29

WHIP1.56

NYY Starter

Cam Schlittler

ERA1.53

IP41.2

K49

WHIP0.75

Bullpens

BAL Bullpen

Role	Hlth	Pitcher	Skl	ERA	IP
SU	7.4	Rico Garcia	71	0.68	13.3
MR	4.0	Grant Wolfram	70	4.50	10.0
MR	9.0	Anthony Nunez	70	2.51	14.3
CL	10.0	Ryan Helsley	70	2.53	10.7
SU	10.0	Tyler Wells	69	3.38	16.0
MR	9.0	Yennier Cano	64	1.86	9.7
MR	9.0	Keegan Akin	57	54.00	1.0
MR	10.0	Cameron Foster	57	6.35	5.7
MR	6.0	Andrew Kittredge	56	0.00	3.0
LR	10.0	Albert Suárez	42	3.46	13.0

NYY Bullpen

Role	Hlth	Pitcher	Skl	ERA	IP
MR	8.0	Brent Headrick	76	1.93	14.0
CL	6.8	David Bednar	75	3.55	12.7
MR	8.0	Paul Blackburn	68	4.09	11.0
MR	8.0	Jake Bird	63	6.75	8.0
SU	10.0	Tim Hill	60	1.50	12.0
MR	10.0	Ryan Yarbrough	59	4.09	11.0
SU	7.4	Fernando Cruz	52	3.60	10.0
MR	9.0	Camilo Doval	50	6.97	10.3
MR	10.0	Angel Chivilli	45	3.86	2.3

CIN

at

CHC

Chase Petty vs Edward Cabrera · Wrigley Field · 7:40 PM ET

SLIGHT EDGE: CHC

CIN

4.2

36%

ML +180

TOTAL

9.7

4–16

CHC

5.5

64%

ML -180

FANDUEL

ML CIN +172 / CHC -205

RL +1.5 (-108) / -1.5 (-111)

Total 11.5 (O -102 / U -120)

CIN 36%

64% CHC

Park0.95 Weather1.05 RL Home −1.550% RL Away +1.550% F5 Total5.4

⚠ CIN Tony Santillan (SE:4.8)

Total Runs

O6.575%O765%O7.565%O857%O8.557%O947%O9.547%O1040%O10.540%

First 5 Innings

F5 total mean: 5.43

O3.5: 68%O4: 55%O4.5: 55%O5: 44%

Starters

CIN Starter

Chase Petty

AAA 2026

IP24.7

K29

WHIP1.34

CHC Starter

Edward Cabrera

ERA3.14

IP34.4

K29

WHIP1.22

Bullpens

CIN Bullpen

Role	Hlth	Pitcher	Skl	ERA	IP
MR	7.0	Brock Burke	79	0.63	14.3
SU	8.7	Graham Ashcraft	74	1.20	15.0
MR	10.0	Pierce Johnson	62	3.75	12.0
MR	8.0	Connor Phillips	58	2.16	16.7
MR	7.0	Sam Moll	58	2.19	12.3
SU	4.8	Tony Santillan	56	2.13	12.7
CL	10.0	Emilio Pagán	52	4.38	12.3
MR	9.0	Jose Franco	47	4.70	7.7
MR	10.0	Kyle Nicolas	37	8.59	7.3

CHC Bullpen

Role	Hlth	Pitcher	Skl	ERA	IP
LR	8.6	Ben Brown	83	2.14	21.0
MR	10.0	Riley Martin	62	2.16	8.3
MR	10.0	Daniel Palencia	59	0.00	5.0
MR	6.0	Corbin Martin	56	0.00	4.0
MR	8.0	Hoby Milner	52	2.45	14.7
CL	10.0	Caleb Thielbar	50	3.12	8.7
MR	6.0	Phil Maton	50	14.40	5.0
MR	10.0	ID:605441	50	0.00	1.7
LR	10.0	ID:656212	50	9.00	3.0
MR	10.0	Jacob Webb	44	5.06	10.7

CLE

at

KC

Tanner Bibee vs Michael Wacha · Kauffman Stadium · 7:40 PM ET

TOSS-UP: KC

CLE

3.5

44%

ML +126

TOTAL

7.4

3–12

KC

3.9

56%

ML -126

FANDUEL

ML CLE +106 / KC -124

RL +1.5 (-194) / -1.5 (+160)

Total 9.0 (O -115 / U -105)

CLE 44%

56% KC

Park0.83 Weather1.05 RL Home −1.539% RL Away +1.561% F5 Total4.0

Total Runs

O6.556%O744%O7.544%O835%O8.535%O926%O9.526%O1019%O10.519%

First 5 Innings

F5 total mean: 4.01

O3.5: 51%O4: 38%O4.5: 38%O5: 26%

Starters

CLE Starter

Tanner Bibee

ERA4.19

IP34.4

K32

WHIP1.48

KC Starter

Michael Wacha

ERA3.15

IP37.1

K33

WHIP1.13

Bullpens

CLE Bullpen

Role	Hlth	Pitcher	Skl	ERA	IP
SU	10.0	Erik Sabrowski	74	2.70	13.3
CL	10.0	Cade Smith	70	4.15	13.0
MR	9.0	Matt Festa	66	5.27	13.7
MR	4.0	Peyton Pallette	62	3.55	12.7
MR	9.0	Tim Herrin	57	0.00	8.3
MR	2.0	ID:670059	54	2.84	6.3
MR	10.0	Connor Brogdon	52	5.25	12.0
MR	10.0	Shawn Armstrong	52	4.22	10.7
MR	10.0	Kolby Allard	51	10.38	8.7
MR	8.0	Hunter Gaddis	47	6.75	5.3

KC Bullpen

Role	Hlth	Pitcher	Skl	ERA	IP
MR	8.0	Daniel Lynch IV	73	0.79	11.3
MR	10.0	Nick Mears	65	2.45	11.0
CL	8.4	Lucas Erceg	60	4.38	12.3
MR	10.0	Mason Black	57	0.00	3.7
MR	10.0	Alex Lange	57	7.71	11.7
SU	10.0	Matt Strahm	54	4.22	10.7
MR	10.0	Eli Morgan	48	2.61	10.3
MR	8.0	John Schreiber	43	4.50	10.0
MR	10.0	Steven Cruz	40	14.40	5.0

MIL

at

STL

Chad Patrick vs Kyle Leahy · Busch Stadium · 7:45 PM ET

TOSS-UP: MIL

MIL

5.2

51%

ML -105

TOTAL

10.1

5–16

STL

4.9

49%

ML +105

FANDUEL

ML MIL -116 / STL -102

RL -1.5 (+140) / +1.5 (-170)

Total 8.5 (O -120 / U -102)

MIL 51%

49% STL

Park0.94 Weather1.08 RL Home −1.535% RL Away +1.565% F5 Total5.8

Total Runs

O6.578%O768%O7.568%O861%O8.561%O950%O9.550%O1043%O10.543%

First 5 Innings

F5 total mean: 5.76

O3.5: 71%O4: 60%O4.5: 60%O5: 48%

Starters

MIL Starter

Chad Patrick

ERA2.64

IP27.3

K16

WHIP1.28

STL Starter

Kyle Leahy

ERA5.57

IP29.1

K22

WHIP1.68

Bullpens

MIL Bullpen

Role	Hlth	Pitcher	Skl	ERA	IP
MR	10.0	Aaron Ashby	83	2.45	18.3
SU	10.0	Grant Anderson	71	2.57	14.0
CL	8.4	Trevor Megill	69	7.20	10.0
MR	8.0	Jake Woodford	68	4.61	13.7
SU	7.4	Abner Uribe	68	3.97	11.3
LR	10.0	Shane Drohan	57	4.70	7.7
MR	10.0	DL Hall	57	2.31	11.7
MR	10.0	Angel Zerpa	50	6.39	12.7
MR	10.0	Carlos Rodriguez	50	2.25	4.0

STL Bullpen

Role	Hlth	Pitcher	Skl	ERA	IP
CL	6.8	Riley O'Brien	79	1.26	14.3
MR	10.0	Gordon Graceffo	70	1.13	16.0
MR	10.0	Ryan Fernandez	61	1.59	5.7
SU	7.4	Ryne Stanek	60	7.71	11.7
MR	10.0	George Soriano	60	4.38	12.3
SU	8.7	JoJo Romero	55	3.95	13.7
MR	6.0	Jared Shuster	52	4.91	3.7
SU	7.4	Justin Bruihl	51	5.87	15.3
MR	10.0	Matt Svanson	37	10.34	15.7

LAD

at

HOU

Yoshinobu Yamamoto vs Steven Okert · Daikin Park · 8:10 PM ET

SLIGHT EDGE: HOU

LAD

3.3

41%

ML +146

TOTAL

7.2

3–12

HOU

3.9

59%

ML -146

FANDUEL

ML LAD -205 / HOU +172

RL -1.5 (-125) / +1.5 (+104)

Total 8.5 (O -122 / U +100)

LAD 41%

59% HOU

Park0.92 Weather1.00 RL Home −1.541% RL Away +1.559% F5 Total3.6

⚠ HOU Enyel De Los Santos (CL:0.0)

Total Runs

O6.554%O742%O7.542%O834%O8.534%O924%O9.524%O1018%O10.518%

First 5 Innings

F5 total mean: 3.65

O3.5: 45%O4: 32%O4.5: 32%O5: 21%

Starters

LAD Starter

Yoshinobu Yamamoto

ERA2.90

IP37.2

K32

WHIP1.02

HOU Starter

Steven Okert

ERA5.48

IP11.5

K10

WHIP1.57

Bullpens

LAD Bullpen

Role	Hlth	Pitcher	Skl	ERA	IP
MR	6.0	Will Klein	72	2.45	11.0
MR	9.0	Alex Vesia	71	1.74	10.3
MR	10.0	Jack Dreyer	70	3.46	13.0
SU	7.4	Tanner Scott	64	2.03	13.3
MR	10.0	Edgardo Henriquez	58	3.86	9.3
MR	9.0	Jake Eder	53	3.00	3.0
CL	10.0	Edwin Díaz	53	10.50	6.0
SU	8.7	Blake Treinen	51	4.15	8.7
MR	10.0	Kyle Hurt	50	1.80	5.0
MR	10.0	Ben Casparius	46	9.64	4.7

HOU Bullpen

Role	Hlth	Pitcher	Skl	ERA	IP
MR	10.0	Bryan King	72	3.86	11.7
MR	8.0	Kai-Wei Teng	64	2.75	19.7
MR	8.0	Steven Okert	62	2.70	13.3
CL	0.0	Enyel De Los Santos	60	6.10	10.3
MR	10.0	Jayden Murray	55	6.00	6.0
MR	10.0	Christian Roa	48	5.19	8.7
MR	9.0	ID:656986	48	13.50	1.3
MR	2.0	AJ Blubaugh	47	6.23	17.3
LR	10.0	Ryan Weiss	33	6.65	21.7
MR	6.0	Bryan Abreu	33	12.96	8.3

CWS

at

LAA

Davis Martin vs José Soriano · Angel Stadium · 9:38 PM ET

TOSS-UP: LAA

CWS

3.8

42%

ML +136

TOTAL

8.0

3–13

LAA

4.3

58%

ML -136

FANDUEL

ML CWS +134 / LAA -158

RL +1.5 (-162) / -1.5 (+134)

Total 7.5 (O -120 / U -102)

CWS 42%

58% LAA

Park1.04 Weather0.99 RL Home −1.541% RL Away +1.559% F5 Total4.1

Total Runs

O6.561%O750%O7.550%O842%O8.542%O932%O9.532%O1025%O10.525%

First 5 Innings

F5 total mean: 4.09

O3.5: 51%O4: 38%O4.5: 38%O5: 27%

Starters

CWS Starter

Davis Martin

ERA1.98

IP36.3

K33

WHIP1.10

LAA Starter

José Soriano

ERA0.85

IP42.2

K49

WHIP0.95

Bullpens

CWS Bullpen

Role	Hlth	Pitcher	Skl	ERA	IP
MR	7.0	Grant Taylor	81	2.93	15.3
MR	10.0	Sean Newcomb	80	4.00	18.0
MR	3.0	Bryan Hudson	76	1.29	14.0
MR	10.0	Lucas Sims	55	4.50	10.0
MR	10.0	Jordan Hicks	54	4.26	12.7
MR	8.0	Tyler Davis	52	0.00	2.0
MR	10.0	Chris Murphy	48	10.50	6.0
CL	10.0	Seranthony Domínguez	44	4.50	12.0
MR	10.0	Osvaldo Bido	43	6.75	5.3
MR	8.0	Jordan Leasure	33	6.91	14.3

LAA Bullpen

Role	Hlth	Pitcher	Skl	ERA	IP
MR	8.0	Ryan Zeferjahn	78	5.28	15.3
SU	8.7	Sam Bachman	63	3.52	15.3
MR	10.0	Brent Suter	59	3.32	19.0
CL	10.0	Jordan Romano	56	10.13	8.0
MR	10.0	Mitch Farris	53	2.25	8.0
MR	6.0	Nick Sandlin	52	14.29	5.7
MR	10.0	Chase Silseth	51	3.27	11.0
MR	10.0	ID:820862	50	0.00	2.7
MR	10.0	Shaun Anderson	49	5.94	16.7
MR	10.0	Joey Lucchesi	43	13.50	3.3

ATL

at

SEA

JR Ritchie vs Logan Gilbert · T-Mobile Park · 9:40 PM ET

TOSS-UP: SEA

ATL

3.8

48%

ML +107

TOTAL

7.5

3–13

SEA

3.7

52%

ML -107

FANDUEL

ML ATL +132 / SEA -156

RL +1.5 (-176) / -1.5 (+146)

Total 7.5 (O -105 / U -115)

ATL 48%

52% SEA

Park0.90 Weather1.00 RL Home −1.535% RL Away +1.565% F5 Total4.0

⚠ ATL Dylan Lee (SE:3.5)

Total Runs

O6.556%O744%O7.544%O836%O8.536%O926%O9.526%O1020%O10.520%

First 5 Innings

F5 total mean: 3.99

O3.5: 50%O4: 37%O4.5: 37%O5: 26%

Starters

ATL Starter

JR Ritchie

ERA2.98

IP12.1

K11

WHIP1.32

SEA Starter

Logan Gilbert

ERA4.10

IP37.3

K39

WHIP1.31

Bullpens

ATL Bullpen

Role	Hlth	Pitcher	Skl	ERA	IP
SU	3.5	Dylan Lee	76	1.38	13.0
MR	10.0	José Suarez	75	5.87	15.3
MR	8.0	Robert Suarez	75	0.71	12.7
SU	7.4	Tyler Kinley	72	1.38	13.0
CL	10.0	Raisel Iglesias	67	0.00	8.7
LR	9.3	Didier Fuentes	63	5.00	9.0
MR	10.0	Joel Payamps	48	6.14	7.3
MR	10.0	Carlos Carrasco	46	0.00	1.0
MR	10.0	Osvaldo Bido	43	6.30	10.0
SU	7.4	Aaron Bummer	43	4.66	9.7

SEA Bullpen

Role	Hlth	Pitcher	Skl	ERA	IP
MR	10.0	Jose A. Ferrer	75	1.93	14.0
MR	9.0	Eduard Bazardo	71	1.29	14.0
SU	10.0	Matt Brash	71	0.00	11.3
MR	9.0	Casey Legumina	71	4.63	11.7
SU	10.0	Gabe Speier	63	2.31	11.7
CL	8.4	Andrés Muñoz	60	6.55	11.0
MR	6.0	Cole Wilcox	60	6.35	11.3
MR	9.0	Cooper Criswell	56	2.57	14.0
MR	8.0	Alex Hoppe	50	16.20	1.7

SD

at

SF

Randy Vásquez vs Trevor McDonald · Oracle Park · 9:45 PM ET

TOSS-UP: SF

SD

3.8

50%

ML +101

TOTAL

7.5

3–13

SF

3.6

50%

ML -101

FANDUEL

ML SD -142 / SF +120

RL -1.5 (+116) / +1.5 (-140)

Total 8.0 (O -110 / U -110)

SD 50%

50% SF

Park0.93 Weather1.03 RL Home −1.533% RL Away +1.567% F5 Total3.9

⚠ SD Adrian Morejon (SE:2.2)

Total Runs

O6.556%O744%O7.544%O836%O8.536%O926%O9.526%O1020%O10.520%

First 5 Innings

F5 total mean: 3.89

O3.5: 50%O4: 36%O4.5: 36%O5: 25%

Starters

SD Starter

Randy Vásquez

ERA2.98

IP33.2

K34

WHIP1.17

SF Starter

Trevor McDonald

AAA 2026

IP15.0

K12

WHIP1.53

Bullpens

SD Bullpen

Role	Hlth	Pitcher	Skl	ERA	IP
CL	6.8	Mason Miller	79	1.26	14.3
SU	2.2	Adrian Morejon	76	5.28	15.3
MR	10.0	Bradgley Rodriguez	75	2.08	13.0
SU	8.7	Kyle Hart	69	5.87	15.3
MR	10.0	Ron Marinaccio	62	5.40	16.7
SU	7.4	Jason Adam	61	1.29	7.0
MR	9.0	Jeremiah Estrada	60	5.14	7.0
MR	10.0	Wandy Peralta	50	4.05	13.3
MR	10.0	David Morgan	50	6.08	13.3

SF Bullpen

Role	Hlth	Pitcher	Skl	ERA	IP
SU	8.7	Keaton Winn	71	2.53	10.7
MR	10.0	Erik Miller	71	3.48	10.3
MR	10.0	Blade Tidwell	65	3.00	12.0
MR	8.0	Caleb Kilian	62	0.75	12.0
CL	6.8	Ryan Walker	62	3.00	12.0
MR	10.0	JT Brubaker	58	2.51	14.3
MR	1.0	Matt Gage	55	1.50	12.0
MR	9.0	Ryan Borucki	50	5.19	8.7