Vol. 1 · No. 127 Est. 2026

MLBjohannes

A daily register of Monte Carlo model projections and plays for the U.S. Mint.

THURSDAY · MAY 7 · 2026
Games
10
Sims / Game
10000
Model
sim_v2a4_johannes
Picks
5
The Board

Today's Projections

TEX
at
NYY
MacKenzie Gore vs Paul Blackburn · Yankee Stadium · 12:35 PM ET
TOSS-UP: NYY
TEX
4.1
46%
ML +115
TOTAL
8.4
3–14
NYY
4.3
54%
ML -115
FANDUEL
ML TEX +136 / NYY -162
RL +1.5 (-156) / -1.5 (+130)
Total 8.5 (O -120 / U -102)
TEX 46%
54% NYY
Park0.99 Weather0.96 RL Home −1.538% RL Away +1.562% F5 Total4.7
Total Runs
0123456789101112131415161718
O6.566%O754%O7.554%O845%O8.545%O935%O9.535%O1028%O10.528%
First 5 Innings
F5 total mean: 4.66
O3.5: 59%O4: 46%O4.5: 46%O5: 34%
Starters
TEX Starter
MacKenzie Gore
ERA4.84
IP33.5
K45
WHIP1.40
NYY Starter
Paul Blackburn
ERA3.38
IP13.3
K9
WHIP1.43
Bullpens
TEX Bullpen
RoleHlthPitcherSklERAIP
MR 10.0 Tyler Alexander 78 0.63 14.3
MR 10.0 Jacob Latz 72 1.23 14.7
CL 10.0 Jakob Junis 69 1.88 14.3
SU 10.0 Jalen Beeks 62 2.08 13.0
MR 10.0 Gavin Collyer 56 0.00 5.3
LR 10.0 Cal Quantrill 56 6.43 7.0
MR 10.0 Robert Garcia 55 3.38 8.0
SU 10.0 Cole Winn 53 4.85 13.0
MR 10.0 ID:682608 52 0.00 4.0
MR 10.0 Chris Martin 50 7.11 6.3
NYY Bullpen
RoleHlthPitcherSklERAIP
MR 10.0 Brent Headrick 76 1.93 14.0
CL 10.0 David Bednar 75 3.55 12.7
MR 10.0 Paul Blackburn 68 4.09 11.0
MR 10.0 Jake Bird 63 6.75 8.0
SU 10.0 Tim Hill 60 1.50 12.0
MR 10.0 Ryan Yarbrough 59 4.09 11.0
SU 10.0 Fernando Cruz 52 3.60 10.0
MR 10.0 Camilo Doval 50 6.97 10.3
MR 10.0 Angel Chivilli 45 3.86 2.3
MIN
at
WSH
Simeon Woods Richardson vs Jake Irvin · Nationals Park · 1:05 PM ET
SLIGHT EDGE: WSH
MIN
5.1
37%
ML +172
TOTAL
11.4
5–18
WSH
6.3
63%
ML -172
FANDUEL
ML MIN +102 / WSH -120
RL -1.5 (+164) / +1.5 (-200)
Total 9.0 (O -115 / U -105)
MIN 37%
63% WSH
Park1.08 Weather1.06 RL Home −1.550% RL Away +1.550% F5 Total6.5
Total Runs
0123456789101112131415161718
O6.585%O777%O7.577%O870%O8.570%O961%O9.561%O1054%O10.554%
First 5 Innings
F5 total mean: 6.49
O3.5: 78%O4: 67%O4.5: 67%O5: 56%
Starters
MIN Starter
Simeon Woods Richardson
ERA6.72
IP33.5
K17
WHIP1.82
WSH Starter
Jake Irvin
ERA5.00
IP34.2
K39
WHIP1.32
Bullpens
MIN Bullpen
RoleHlthPitcherSklERAIP
MR 10.0 Eric Orze 72 3.09 11.7
MR 10.0 Anthony Banda 65 8.74 11.3
MR 10.0 Garrett Acton 63 2.70 6.7
MR 10.0 Cody Laweryson 63 4.26 6.3
LR 10.0 Andrew Morris 62 7.20 10.0
MR 10.0 Luis García 61 18.00 1.0
MR 10.0 Taylor Rogers 61 6.52 9.7
MR 10.0 Justin Topa 60 3.55 12.7
MR 10.0 Cole Sands 56 4.63 11.7
SU 10.0 Kody Funderburk 51 2.31 11.7
WSH Bullpen
RoleHlthPitcherSklERAIP
CL 10.0 Gus Varland 68 3.18 11.3
MR 10.0 Brad Lord 65 3.74 21.7
MR 10.0 Mitchell Parker 60 5.40 8.3
MR 10.0 Richard Lovelady 58 1.59 5.7
MR 10.0 Paxton Schultz 56 4.00 9.0
MR 10.0 Cole Henry 54 6.43 7.0
MR 10.0 Julian Fernández 48 2.25 4.0
MR 10.0 ID:683000 47 9.00 2.0
MR 10.0 Clayton Beeter 45 3.48 10.3
SU 10.0 Cionel Pérez 43 7.62 13.0
CLE
at
KC
Slade Cecconi vs Seth Lugo · Kauffman Stadium · 2:10 PM ET
TOSS-UP: KC
CLE
3.9
43%
ML +131
TOTAL
8.3
3–14
KC
4.4
57%
ML -131
FANDUEL
ML CLE +122 / KC -144
RL +1.5 (-164) / -1.5 (+136)
Total 9.0 (O -122 / U +100)
CLE 43%
57% KC
Park0.83 Weather1.11 RL Home −1.541% RL Away +1.559% F5 Total4.6
Total Runs
0123456789101112131415161718
O6.564%O753%O7.553%O844%O8.544%O934%O9.534%O1027%O10.527%
First 5 Innings
F5 total mean: 4.57
O3.5: 58%O4: 45%O4.5: 45%O5: 33%
Starters
CLE Starter
Slade Cecconi
ERA6.78
IP34.5
K28
WHIP1.62
KC Starter
Seth Lugo
ERA2.75
IP42.5
K37
WHIP1.25
Bullpens
CLE Bullpen
RoleHlthPitcherSklERAIP
SU 10.0 Erik Sabrowski 74 2.70 13.3
CL 10.0 Cade Smith 70 4.15 13.0
MR 10.0 Matt Festa 66 5.27 13.7
MR 10.0 Peyton Pallette 62 3.55 12.7
MR 10.0 Tim Herrin 57 0.00 8.3
MR 10.0 ID:670059 54 2.84 6.3
MR 10.0 Connor Brogdon 52 5.25 12.0
MR 10.0 Shawn Armstrong 52 4.22 10.7
MR 10.0 Kolby Allard 51 10.38 8.7
MR 10.0 Hunter Gaddis 47 6.75 5.3
KC Bullpen
RoleHlthPitcherSklERAIP
MR 10.0 Daniel Lynch IV 73 0.79 11.3
MR 10.0 Nick Mears 65 2.45 11.0
CL 10.0 Lucas Erceg 60 4.38 12.3
MR 10.0 Mason Black 57 0.00 3.7
MR 10.0 Alex Lange 57 7.71 11.7
SU 10.0 Matt Strahm 54 4.22 10.7
MR 10.0 Eli Morgan 48 2.61 10.3
MR 10.0 John Schreiber 43 4.50 10.0
MR 10.0 Steven Cruz 40 14.40 5.0
CIN
at
CHC
Rhett Lowder vs Shota Imanaga · Wrigley Field · 2:20 PM ET
SLIGHT EDGE: CHC
CIN
3.6
41%
ML +144
TOTAL
7.9
3–13
CHC
4.3
59%
ML -144
FANDUEL
ML CIN +166 / CHC -198
RL +1.5 (-126) / -1.5 (+105)
Total 9.0 (O -104 / U -118)
CIN 41%
59% CHC
Park0.95 Weather1.01 RL Home −1.542% RL Away +1.558% F5 Total4.0
Total Runs
0123456789101112131415161718
O6.560%O748%O7.548%O840%O8.540%O929%O9.529%O1023%O10.523%
First 5 Innings
F5 total mean: 4.04
O3.5: 51%O4: 37%O4.5: 37%O5: 27%
Starters
CIN Starter
Rhett Lowder
ERA5.23
IP34.4
K26
WHIP1.42
CHC Starter
Shota Imanaga
ERA2.41
IP41.1
K43
WHIP0.85
Bullpens
CIN Bullpen
RoleHlthPitcherSklERAIP
MR 10.0 Brock Burke 79 0.63 14.3
SU 10.0 Graham Ashcraft 74 1.20 15.0
MR 10.0 Pierce Johnson 62 3.75 12.0
MR 10.0 Connor Phillips 58 2.16 16.7
MR 10.0 Sam Moll 58 2.19 12.3
SU 10.0 Tony Santillan 56 2.13 12.7
CL 10.0 Emilio Pagán 52 4.38 12.3
MR 10.0 Jose Franco 47 4.70 7.7
MR 10.0 Kyle Nicolas 37 8.59 7.3
CHC Bullpen
RoleHlthPitcherSklERAIP
LR 10.0 Ben Brown 83 2.14 21.0
MR 10.0 Riley Martin 62 2.16 8.3
MR 10.0 Daniel Palencia 59 0.00 5.0
MR 10.0 Corbin Martin 56 0.00 4.0
MR 10.0 Hoby Milner 52 2.45 14.7
CL 10.0 Caleb Thielbar 50 3.12 8.7
MR 10.0 Phil Maton 50 14.40 5.0
MR 10.0 ID:605441 50 0.00 1.7
LR 10.0 ID:656212 50 9.00 3.0
MR 10.0 Jacob Webb 44 5.06 10.7
NYM
at
COL
Christian Scott vs Jose Quintana · Coors Field · 3:10 PM ET
TOSS-UP: COL
NYM
6.4
47%
ML +111
TOTAL
12.9
7–20
COL
6.5
53%
ML -111
FANDUEL
ML NYM -154 / COL +130
RL -1.5 (+106) / +1.5 (-128)
Total 10.5 (O -120 / U -102)
NYM 47%
53% COL
Park1.29 Weather0.99 RL Home −1.540% RL Away +1.560% F5 Total7.5
Total Runs
0123456789101112131415161718
O6.590%O785%O7.585%O879%O8.579%O972%O9.572%O1065%O10.565%
First 5 Innings
F5 total mean: 7.46
O3.5: 83%O4: 75%O4.5: 75%O5: 65%
Starters
NYM Starter
Christian Scott
ERA4.43
IP6.1
K9
WHIP1.31
COL Starter
Jose Quintana
ERA4.23
IP23.4
K12
WHIP1.41
Bullpens
NYM Bullpen
RoleHlthPitcherSklERAIP
MR 10.0 Tobias Myers 74 2.33 19.3
LR 10.0 Sean Manaea 69 4.66 19.3
MR 10.0 Huascar Brazobán 68 1.35 13.3
MR 10.0 Brooks Raley 61 1.86 9.7
MR 10.0 Luis García 61 7.11 6.3
MR 10.0 Craig Kimbrel 61 5.06 5.3
CL 10.0 Devin Williams 60 9.00 8.0
MR 10.0 Luke Weaver 58 4.91 11.0
MR 10.0 Richard Lovelady 58 3.68 7.3
LR 10.0 Carl Edwards Jr. 55 0.00 3.3
COL Bullpen
RoleHlthPitcherSklERAIP
LR 10.0 Chase Dollander 89 2.25 32.0
LR 10.0 Antonio Senzatela 86 0.50 18.0
MR 10.0 Jimmy Herget 74 1.50 12.0
MR 10.0 Brennan Bernardino 71 0.82 11.0
MR 10.0 Juan Mejia 67 5.40 13.3
MR 10.0 Zach Agnos 64 5.71 17.3
SU 10.0 Jaden Hill 57 3.18 11.3
MR 10.0 Seth Halvorsen 52 0.00 2.0
CL 10.0 Victor Vodnik 51 6.94 11.7
LR 10.0 Tanner Gordon 42 7.36 11.0
PIT
at
AZ
Mitch Keller vs Zac Gallen · Chase Field · 3:40 PM ET
TOSS-UP: PIT
PIT
4.9
51%
ML -102
TOTAL
9.6
4–16
AZ
4.7
49%
ML +102
FANDUEL
ML PIT -104 / AZ -112
RL -1.5 (+160) / +1.5 (-194)
Total 8.5 (O -120 / U -102)
PIT 51%
49% AZ
Park1.07 Weather1.00 RL Home −1.535% RL Away +1.565% F5 Total5.2
Total Runs
0123456789101112131415161718
O6.574%O764%O7.564%O856%O8.556%O946%O9.546%O1039%O10.539%
First 5 Innings
F5 total mean: 5.23
O3.5: 66%O4: 53%O4.5: 53%O5: 41%
Starters
PIT Starter
Mitch Keller
ERA2.85
IP41.0
K31
WHIP1.05
AZ Starter
Zac Gallen
ERA4.59
IP31.4
K20
WHIP1.56
Bullpens
PIT Bullpen
RoleHlthPitcherSklERAIP
SU 10.0 Gregory Soto 75 1.84 14.7
SU 10.0 Mason Montgomery 74 3.65 12.3
SU 10.0 Isaac Mattson 73 1.13 16.0
MR 10.0 Yohan Ramírez 72 2.04 17.7
MR 10.0 Evan Sisk 68 2.00 9.0
MR 10.0 Justin Lawrence 56 5.14 14.0
MR 10.0 Cam Sanders 55 12.00 3.0
MR 10.0 José Urquidy 54 8.53 6.3
LR 10.0 Wilber Dotel 50 1.35 6.7
CL 10.0 Dennis Santana 50 3.29 13.7
AZ Bullpen
RoleHlthPitcherSklERAIP
SU 10.0 Juan Morillo 72 1.98 13.7
MR 10.0 Kevin Ginkel 71 4.38 12.3
SU 10.0 Jonathan Loáisiga 70 3.29 13.7
SU 10.0 Taylor Clarke 67 3.07 14.7
MR 10.0 Taylor Rashi 50 9.82 3.7
SU 10.0 Ryan Thompson 49 3.97 11.3
CL 10.0 Paul Sewald 49 4.50 10.0
MR 10.0 Andrew Hoffmann 42 7.71 11.7
ATH
at
PHI
J.T. Ginn vs Andrew Painter · Citizens Bank Park · 6:40 PM ET
TOSS-UP: PHI
ATH
4.6
50%
ML +101
TOTAL
9.0
4–15
PHI
4.4
50%
ML -101
FANDUEL
ML ATH +110 / PHI -130
RL +1.5 (-182) / -1.5 (+150)
Total 9.0 (O -115 / U -105)
ATH 50%
50% PHI
Park1.04 Weather0.95 RL Home −1.535% RL Away +1.565% F5 Total4.9
Total Runs
0123456789101112131415161718
O6.570%O759%O7.559%O851%O8.551%O940%O9.540%O1034%O10.534%
First 5 Innings
F5 total mean: 4.89
O3.5: 63%O4: 49%O4.5: 49%O5: 37%
Starters
ATH Starter
J.T. Ginn
ERA4.55
IP27.7
K23
WHIP1.34
PHI Starter
Andrew Painter
ERA5.41
IP28.3
K28
WHIP1.63
Bullpens
ATH Bullpen
RoleHlthPitcherSklERAIP
MR 10.0 Jack Perkins 75 2.92 12.3
SU 10.0 Justin Sterner 68 4.02 15.7
CL 10.0 Joel Kuhnel 64 2.16 8.3
MR 10.0 Mark Leiter Jr. 60 6.39 12.7
MR 10.0 Brady Basso 59 0.00 0.7
MR 10.0 Luis Medina 59 2.70 10.0
SU 10.0 Scott Barlow 54 3.38 13.3
MR 10.0 Elvis Alvarado 53 8.38 9.7
SU 10.0 Hogan Harris 51 2.65 17.0
MR 10.0 Michael Kelly 46 6.23 4.3
PHI Bullpen
RoleHlthPitcherSklERAIP
MR 10.0 José Alvarado 67 7.45 9.7
MR 10.0 Tim Mayza 64 3.94 16.0
MR 10.0 Jonathan Bowlan 64 3.86 7.0
MR 10.0 Zach Pop 62 3.68 7.3
MR 10.0 Kyle Backhus 58 4.66 9.7
MR 10.0 Tanner Banks 57 7.20 10.0
MR 10.0 Chase Shugart 57 1.17 7.7
SU 10.0 Brad Keller 57 3.86 11.7
MR 10.0 Orion Kerkering 54 2.70 10.0
CL 10.0 Jhoan Duran 50 1.35 6.7
BAL
at
MIA
Cade Povich vs Max Meyer · loanDepot park · 6:40 PM ET
TOSS-UP: MIA
BAL
3.9
46%
ML +119
TOTAL
8.0
3–13
MIA
4.2
54%
ML -119
FANDUEL
ML BAL +106 / MIA -124
RL +1.5 (-205) / -1.5 (+168)
Total 8.5 (O -108 / U -112)
BAL 46%
54% MIA
Park0.94 Weather1.00 RL Home −1.538% RL Away +1.562% F5 Total4.4
Total Runs
0123456789101112131415161718
O6.561%O750%O7.550%O842%O8.542%O932%O9.532%O1025%O10.525%
First 5 Innings
F5 total mean: 4.38
O3.5: 56%O4: 43%O4.5: 43%O5: 31%
Starters
BAL Starter
Cade Povich
ERA4.68
IP15.4
K11
WHIP1.36
MIA Starter
Max Meyer
ERA2.73
IP36.3
K40
WHIP1.05
Bullpens
BAL Bullpen
RoleHlthPitcherSklERAIP
SU 10.0 Rico Garcia 71 0.68 13.3
MR 10.0 Grant Wolfram 70 4.50 10.0
MR 10.0 Anthony Nunez 70 2.51 14.3
CL 10.0 Ryan Helsley 70 2.53 10.7
SU 10.0 Tyler Wells 69 3.38 16.0
MR 10.0 Yennier Cano 64 1.86 9.7
MR 10.0 Keegan Akin 57 54.00 1.0
MR 10.0 Cameron Foster 57 6.35 5.7
MR 10.0 Andrew Kittredge 56 0.00 3.0
LR 10.0 Albert Suárez 42 3.46 13.0
MIA Bullpen
RoleHlthPitcherSklERAIP
SU 10.0 Anthony Bender 68 5.25 12.0
MR 10.0 Tyler Phillips 68 1.47 18.3
MR 10.0 Michael Petersen 65 3.65 12.3
MR 10.0 John King 65 0.71 12.7
MR 10.0 Ryan Gusto 64 0.00 1.0
MR 10.0 Calvin Faucher 63 5.40 10.0
CL 10.0 Pete Fairbanks 63 10.00 9.0
MR 10.0 Lake Bachar 59 3.29 13.7
SU 10.0 Andrew Nardi 48 7.20 10.0
TB
at
BOS
Griffin Jax vs Jake Bennett · Fenway Park · 7:10 PM ET
SLIGHT EDGE: TB
TB
4.4
59%
ML -142
TOTAL
7.9
3–13
BOS
3.5
41%
ML +142
FANDUEL
ML TB -102 / BOS -116
RL -1.5 (+168) / +1.5 (-205)
Total 8.5 (O -112 / U -108)
TB 59%
41% BOS
Park0.99 Weather0.99 RL Home −1.526% RL Away +1.574% F5 Total4.2
Total Runs
0123456789101112131415161718
O6.559%O747%O7.547%O840%O8.540%O930%O9.530%O1024%O10.524%
First 5 Innings
F5 total mean: 4.15
O3.5: 52%O4: 39%O4.5: 39%O5: 28%
Starters
TB Starter
Griffin Jax
ERA6.43
IP11.2
K14
WHIP1.87
BOS Starter
Jake Bennett
ERA1.80
IP5.0
K3
WHIP1.40
Bullpens
TB Bullpen
RoleHlthPitcherSklERAIP
SU 10.0 Ian Seymour 70 6.75 13.3
CL 10.0 Bryan Baker 68 3.18 11.3
LR 10.0 Jesse Scholtens 67 3.20 19.7
MR 10.0 Cole Sulser 66 3.24 16.7
SU 10.0 Kevin Kelly 65 4.26 12.7
MR 10.0 Trevor Martin 51 6.23 4.3
SU 10.0 Hunter Bigge 46 4.50 8.0
MR 10.0 Griffin Jax 42 6.35 11.3
MR 10.0 Mason Englert 41 7.11 12.7
MR 10.0 Yoendrys Gómez 28 7.04 15.3
BOS Bullpen
RoleHlthPitcherSklERAIP
CL 10.0 Aroldis Chapman 67 1.04 8.7
MR 10.0 Tyler Samaniego 64 0.00 8.3
SU 10.0 Garrett Whitlock 62 2.70 10.0
MR 10.0 Zack Kelly 62 3.48 10.3
MR 10.0 Jovani Morán 59 2.25 16.0
MR 10.0 Justin Slaten 57 0.00 3.3
MR 10.0 Greg Weissert 54 3.86 11.7
MR 10.0 Danny Coulombe 53 6.14 7.3
MR 10.0 Ryan Watson 51 6.62 17.7
STL
at
SD
Matthew Liberatore vs Michael King · Petco Park · 10:10 PM ET
SLIGHT EDGE: SD
STL
3.4
37%
ML +167
TOTAL
7.8
3–13
SD
4.4
63%
ML -167
FANDUEL
ML STL +144 / SD -172
RL +1.5 (-144) / -1.5 (+120)
Total 8.0 (O -110 / U -110)
STL 37%
63% SD
Park0.87 Weather0.99 RL Home −1.546% RL Away +1.554% F5 Total4.4
Total Runs
0123456789101112131415161718
O6.559%O748%O7.548%O839%O8.539%O929%O9.529%O1023%O10.523%
First 5 Innings
F5 total mean: 4.38
O3.5: 56%O4: 42%O4.5: 42%O5: 32%
Starters
STL Starter
Matthew Liberatore
ERA4.59
IP35.3
K23
WHIP1.53
SD Starter
Michael King
ERA2.98
IP39.2
K39
WHIP1.15
Bullpens
STL Bullpen
RoleHlthPitcherSklERAIP
CL 10.0 Riley O'Brien 79 1.26 14.3
MR 10.0 Gordon Graceffo 70 1.13 16.0
MR 10.0 Ryan Fernandez 61 1.59 5.7
SU 10.0 Ryne Stanek 60 7.71 11.7
MR 10.0 George Soriano 60 4.38 12.3
SU 10.0 JoJo Romero 55 3.95 13.7
MR 10.0 Jared Shuster 52 4.91 3.7
SU 10.0 Justin Bruihl 51 5.87 15.3
MR 10.0 Matt Svanson 37 10.34 15.7
SD Bullpen
RoleHlthPitcherSklERAIP
CL 10.0 Mason Miller 79 1.26 14.3
SU 10.0 Adrian Morejon 76 5.28 15.3
MR 10.0 Bradgley Rodriguez 75 2.08 13.0
SU 10.0 Kyle Hart 69 5.87 15.3
MR 10.0 Ron Marinaccio 62 5.40 16.7
SU 10.0 Jason Adam 61 1.29 7.0
MR 10.0 Jeremiah Estrada 60 5.14 7.0
MR 10.0 Wandy Peralta 50 4.05 13.3
MR 10.0 David Morgan 50 6.08 13.3
The Editor's Plays

On Today's Slate

Best Bets

BAL @ MIA
Marlins ML -118
MIN @ WSH
Over 8.5 -129

Value Plays

ATH @ PHI + TEX @ NYY
Phillies ML + Yankees ML Parlay +204
CLE @ KC
Guardians/Royals Under 9 +111
NYM @ COL
Mets -1.5 +107